Due For Some Mean Regression: Part 2

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The first place we’ll look for possible ‘luck’ or mean regression is the 3 teams’ pitching staffs. The questions, again, are ‘did the Tigers get lucky in 2011’ (relative to the Twins and Indians) and ‘do we expect the Tigers to fall back to the pack in 2012?’ Justin Verlander – though we all knew he was good – obviously outperformed anyone’s expectations in 2011 as did Jose Valverde with his perfect 49 saves so we’d probably figure we know what we’ll find.

We’ll start with the Tigers pitchers:

Although Justin Verlander and Jose Valverde did pitch significantly better than that Marcel projection, that isn’t exactly the rule for the staff as a whole. Joaquin Benoit and Dan Schlereth pitched a bit better than expected, but the rest of the bullpen was lots worse. Ryan Perry was a mess and the remaining 3 members of the Tigers’ projected bullpen either did not pitch (Zumaya) or were so bad when they did that they spent most of the season in Toledo. The arms that rotated in from AAA to replace those who were demoted (which included Perry and Schlereth at times during the season) was – aside from Al Alburquerque – woeful. The two Davids (Pauley & Purcey) brought in through trades were every bit as bad.

While Verlander was great, the rest of the Tigers opening day rotation underperformed – though they did all stay healthy, particularly important given how poorly Tigers’ spot starters fared. Max Scherzer was expected to be a 4-5 win second ace, but he wound up with an ERA of 4.43 due to problems with the long ball. Brad Penny wasn’t able to miss any bats and ended the season with an ERA close to a full run higher than his projection. Rick Porcello also gave up a lot more runs than we would have expected. Though Phil Coke wasn’t very good as a starter in the first half of 2011 and wound up back in the ‘pen, it’s difficult to say if this could be called ‘bad luck’ since his projection was as a reliever and came fairly close to the numbers he put up in the second half as a reliever. Nonetheless – it’s worth noting that the Tigers had hopes for the Coke experiment and that they were dashed. Doug Fister was acquired mid-season to fill the Coke hole and he was amazingly good – clearly we can’t expect Fister to match his 1.78 ERA as a Tiger in 2012. But, we can expect Scherzer and Porcello to bounce back, whoever replaces Penny to be less bad and Justin Verlander to hold onto some of the strides he seemed to make last year.

Next, the Indians:

The Indians didn’t have any right to expect much from their rotation going into 2011 – Masterson, Tomlin, Carrasco, Carmona & Talbot were all projected to put up ERAs between 4.18 and 4.45 (like Rick Porcello and Brad Penny). Carrasco and Tomlin roughly met those projections, but weren’t able to make a full 30+ starts due to injuries. Carmona didn’t get hurt, but he didn’t pitch well either. Mitch Talbot was even worse in his 12 starts. Fortunately for the Indians, Masterson made major (and somewhat unexpected) strides toward ace-hood, beating his ERA projection by more than a full run, and the Indians 6th and 7th starters – David Huff and Jeanmar Gomez made solid starts to compensate for the injuries. At mid season the Indians acquired former ace Ubaldo Jimenez in exchange for their top two pitching prospects, but he was even worse in Cleveland than he had been in the first half in Colorado. The Indians rotation in 2011 – overall – may have been slightly unlucky mostly due Jimenez. Their 2012 looks brighter, partly due to the expected development of their youngsters, partly due to a possible bounceback from Jimenez and partly due to added depth (though depth was never an issue, relative to Detroit) from Derek Lowe.

In the bullpen, the situation is turned on its head – the Indians look to have gotten very lucky indeed. Closer Chris Perez managed to keep his ERA close to his projection despite a loss of velocity and a plummeting strikeout rate. The remaining key members of the Indians bullpen – Sipp, Smith, Rafael Perez & Pestano – stayed healthy and greatly exceeded expectations. The only Indians relievers to have pitched poorly were bottom-enders Chad Durbin and Frank Herrmann. While we might expect the Indians rotation to be better next year – not based on roster movements but mean regression and return from injury – we might expect the opposite to be true for the Indians ‘pen.

And last but not least, the Twins:

The Twins, as we all know, were a tremendous disappointment in all aspects of the game in 2012. Of course the pitching staff will be no exception. A few things have to be pointed out, though. Carl Pavano was significantly worse in 2011 than in 2010 – but this was expected, nobody thought he was actually as good as his 2010 numbers. Like Pavano, Nick Blackburn was no better or worse than projected and is expected to be worse and not better in 2012. Though Scott Baker was injured midway through the season, he pitched very well when healthy and going into 2012 he’s just as likely to miss time but probably won’t be quite as good when he does take the mound. Kevin Slowey didn’t make many starts, though he was pretty awful when he did, and is no longer with the Twins. The true ‘bad luck’ for the Twins rotation has to come in the forms of Brian Duensing and Francisco Liriano. Duensing had a projected ERA of only 3.50, which his true 5.23 clearly did not match. However, Duensing’s projection was based on the expectation of a lot of relief appearances and the occasional spot start while in actuality he made 28 starts and only came in out the the ‘pen 4 times. That 5.23 is likely not representative of the true Duensing – as a starter – but neither is the 3.50. Bill James projects only a relatively slight regression for Duensing, down to 4.53 for 2012. Francisco Liriano played with pain in 2011 and that likely led to poor control and an ERA a run higher than projected. His projected for 2012 is virtually identical to his projection for 2011.

In the bullpen, it’s hard to say what improvement one can expect from Minnesota. Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares and 2011 swingman Kevin Slower were bad in 2011 and might have reverted to form, but they aren’t on the roster any more. Matt Capps was bad, might bounce back, and has been re-signed to close for them again. Glen Perkins came out of nowhere with an exceptional 2011, but (at least according to Bill James) isn’t likely to keep it up – and the same can be said for Phil Dumatrait. Swarzak is expected to regress, Hughes isn’t projected as a major leaguer and while Alex Burnett should return to form I’m not sure that form is anything worthwhile. If anything ‘mean regression’ should be expected to make the Twins miserable bullpen worse than it was in 2011 and not better, particularly with their continuing personnel losses, which might offset the expected recovery of Duensing and Liriano.

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