Detroit Tigers Offseason Plan

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Let me make one thing clear right off the bat: I have no influence over the Detroit Tigers’ front office and nor do I have any unique insight into how they operate. I’m not trying to predict what Dave Dombrowski and Mike Ilitch will decide to do over the next four months. I’m just going to rattle off what my goals – as armchair GM – would be for the Tigers offseason as of the end of October 2012.

Now – let’s start with a recap of what I wanted the Tigers to do (which they, of course, did not do) after the 2011 season:

Oct 28, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers designated hitter

Delmon Young

(21) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning of game four of the 2012 World Series at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

1. Non-tender Delmon Young: I’m not sure that anyone here at MCB (correct me if I’m wrong) thought that paying Delmon Young what he’s getting this year was going to be worth it. Leyland and Dombrowski clearly disagreed. Who was right? Despite his three postseason home runs, I’d have to say me and every one else here. Young’s .707 OPS was replacement-level for a DH or a corner outfielder, and coupled with his bad D in occasional time in the field made Young 7 runs below replacement level.

August 23, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman

Kelly Johnson

(2) in the field against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

2. Sign Kelly Johnson. We all knew that the Tigers had desperate need of a decent second baseman going into the 2012 season, but Dombrowski turned up his nose at the free agent offerings that were out there – preferring to stick with his bat/glove platoon of Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago. We know how badly that turned out – and we know that those two guys’ inability to hit or field over the season’s first half led to the Infante trade and the loss of two of the Tigers top 3 prospects. Kelly Johnson accepted arbitration from the Blue Jays – since no-one seemed inclined to make him a better offer – and gave them a .688 OPS and 0.7 WAR. Good? Not really. Despite the failure of the Raburn experiment, DD may have been right to steer clear of Johnson. I call this one a wash.

3. Decline Jose Valverde‘s option. Jose Valverde did not have the greatest of seasons. He wasn’t worth the $9 million dollars he got paid. The Tigers would have been a slightly better team had they spent that money elsewhere. But… the guy I wanted them to go after, with the money that they weren’t paying Papa Grande, was Ryan Madson. Madson ultimately signed a one-year deal with Cincinnati and blew out his arm before the season even started. I’d have to give this one to Dombrowski (though both of our picks were bad).

4. Sign Grady Sizemore. Others at MCB wanted the Tigers to make a big push for Carlos Beltran – to start in left field over Delmon Young (who we wouldn’t have signed) or Andy Dirks (who we didn’t think would have such a good year). That obviously would have paid off in a big, big way. My pick for a new, non-Delmon, left fielder was Grady Sizemore – who would presumably have come cheaper than Beltran and involved the same high-talent, high-injury-risk sort of equation. Sizemore didn’t play a game in 2012, though, so clearly my decision was bad.

There you go – my 2011 offseason plan for the Detroit Tigers… doesn’t seem like I’d make the greatest GM in the world now, does it? So follow through to page 2 to see my 2012 plan – but obviously take my ravings with a grain of salt:

1. Do not resign Jose Valverde or Delmon Young. Please. I was against it a year ago, I’m far more strongly against it now. There are better options out there for the money.

2. Offer arbitration to every single arb-eligible on the 40-man roster. Most of those are no-brainers – even Rick Porcello – so what I’m really saying is this: offer arbitration to Brennan Boesch and Ryan Raburn. These two guys were total failures in 2012 and big reasons why what we expected to be an enviably deep 95-win team turned out to be a top-heavy 88-win team. Raburn was 1.5 wins below replacement level in 2012, Boesch 1.3 wins below. They would both expect something in the neighborhood of $2 million through arbitration – and I’d want to pay that? Yep. I would. They’re both solid bounce-back candidates and could be valuable reserves next year. If the Tigers don’t offer either a contract, I can live with that, but if it was up to me…

Oct 13, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; Detroit Tigers outfielder

Avisail Garcia

(34) leaps for but cannot catch a ball hit by New York Yankees right fielder

Nick Swisher

(not pictured) in the 8th inning during game one of the 2012 ALCS at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

3. Don’t plan on handing Avisail Garcia a starting job. I’ll admit that Avisail Garcia outperformed my expectations in September and October. I’d also say that my expectations for him were very, very low. Avisail Garcia worked a walk to lead off the 8th against Jeremy Affeldt, a guy that then made mincemeat of the Tigers 3, 4 and 5 hitters. I couldn’t believe it. Mr. No-Plate-Discipline was the only guy who held his cool in the pressure cooker of a tied elimination game? That bodes well. I now think of Garcia as a probable contributor in the near future rather than a long shot. Nonetheless, after his call-up Garcia almost never faced right-handed pitchers and finished with a .692 OPS in the regular season and a .624 OPS in the postseason. He had 1 extra base hit (a double in the ALCS) despite having a lot of raw power potential. He had one stead (and got caught twice) despite having a lot of raw speed. He played statistically bad defense despite having good tools. The realistic choice is between continuing to use Garcia as the weak side of a platoon and sending him to AAA to develop. Either option is good – but if he’s an everyday starter I expect the results to be something pretty awful.

4. Re-sign Anibal Sanchez. I’m guessing that his price tag is pushing 4-years and $50 million, but I think that he’s worth it. If Sanchez walks, that Infante + Sanchez trade is going to start to look pretty short-sighted pretty soon (though it obviously helped the Tigers to make that playoff run in 2012 regardless).

Oct 1, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello (48) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

5. Move Rick Porcello to the bullpen. I wrote a whole piece on this a few weeks ago, so my rationale is out there already. It boils down to this: A) Rick Porcello is good the first time through the order and bad thereafter. B) pitchers typically gain in terms of “stuff” when they move to the ‘pen. So… don’t tell me he has a starter makeup. He doesn’t, or he could get guys out twice. Don’t tell me he doesn’t have the stuff to be a shut-down reliever: he has solid stuff now and it will look better if he doesn’t have to pace himself. What I expect from Porcello is either a 5th starter or a filthy, filthy relief ace (even if he is one in the mold of Jim Johnson and not Mariano Rivera).

6. Put Drew Smyly back in the rotation. This extends directly from #4 and #5.

7. Pick up Octavio Dotel‘s option. He’s worth the $3 million.

8. Hold a closer competition in April. That means (obviously) no Valverde and also no chasing free agent closers or established closers in trades. Sports wags are already speculating that the Tigers will go after Fernando Rodney (who should win the AL Cy Young) or Rafael Soriano– who is expected to opt out of his deal with the Yankees. Don’t do it.

Oct 24, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher

Al Alburquerque

throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the 5th inning during game one of the 2012 World Series at AT

Don’t pay for past luck and don’t put big bucks into guys with enormous risks. Dotel or Joaquin Benoit could be called upon to close – if no-one else steps up – but I’d like to see Phil Coke (who obviously wants that role badly), Al Alburquerque, Brayan Villarreal, Bruce Rondon and – yes – Rick Porcello duke it out in Spring Training (and probably beyond). I’d say that any of them could be better than Valverde was this year. IF the Tigers insist on going after a veteran from outside the organization to fill the closer void – please go for an under-the-radar rebound candidate rather than a guy who had an amazing 2012. Rondon is expected to be “the guy” in 2014 or 2015, so it’s not going to be a great idea to sign somebody to a 3-year deal for $30 million plus. Give a one-year deal to somebody with something to prove. How about the-pitcher-formerly-known-as-Leo Nunez? [Now Juan Carlos Oviedo]

September 2, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder

Shane Victorino

(8) slides home to score the winning run in the ninth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

9. Sign Shane Victorino. To start with – let me just say that it is clear to me that the Tigers should not (unless they are trying to throw a team together on the cheap) go into next season without signing a new left-fielder (Andy Dirks is find in right). Internal options exist (like that Garcia/Berry platoon or betting on Boesch) but they forecast somewhere around replacement-level. There are plenty of options out there – not just one – and any of them would add to the Tigers expected win total in 2013. Michael Bourn. B.J. Upton. Josh Hamilton. And the list goes on. Hamilton, Bourn and Upton are likely to get qualifying offers and therefore involve the loss of a draft pick. The other guys on the list (that wouldn’t be likely to get qualifying offers) that could benefit Detroit like Angel Pagan* or Melky Cabrera aren’t as good of players as Victorino and/or aren’t good fits for the Tigers’ needs. What the Tigers need is (ideally) a switch-hitter with gap power, speed and plus defensive range. That sums up Victorino perfectly. He’s a doubles and triples hitter that steals a lot of bases (39 in 2012), doesn’t strike out too much (11.6% of the time over his career) and gives a team (over his career) average defense in center or exceptional defense in the corners. He is a perfectfit for Detroit. He is also 31 and coming off a down year, but that’s why you could get him for – say 3 years and $39 million instead of 5 and $80.

10. Re-sign Jim Leyland. And give him a contract with a formal “manager-option” for 2014 instead of an informal one. The speculation over this guy’s future over the past few months has gotten ridiculous and gotten distracting, given that absolutely nobody thought he would be out (though some thought and think that the Tigers would be better off without him). Leyland makes some odd tactical decisions, but he still does all of intangible things that you need a competent manager to be able to do. And all you Leyland haters please, please don’t forget: since Leyland took over we have had ZERO fights on planes. ZERO.

11. Re-sign Gerald Laird. Laird is nothing exceptional, nor will he come at a premium price, but the Tigers do need a right-handed hitting backup for Alex Avila and you could do a whole heck of a lot worse than Laird.

12. Pick up Jhonny Peralta‘s option. He isn’t the ideal shortstop, but there just aren’t any ideal shortstops out there on the free agent market and trade candidates would come dear. This one is pretty much a slam dunk – unless the Tigers plan on cutting payroll to the bone.

All told, my “armchair offseason” adds quite a bit to the Tigers’ payroll (though some is saved by not chasing an expensive closer). It isn’t my money and it isn’t by any stretch of the imagination fair for me to complain if Mike Ilitch doesn’t want to open his pocketbook quite that wide. Nonetheless – if he does, I think this would be the way to maximize those 2013 expected wins. If this is unmanageable – I’d rather the money went to Shane Victorino than Anibal Sanchez. That would leave Porcello as the 4th starter and make an opening in the bullpen for somebody like Bruce Rondon or Casey Crosby.

We’d be looking at a lineup like this:
1. Austin Jackson (CF)
2. Shane Victorino (LF)
3. Miguel Cabrera (3B)
4. Prince Fielder (1B)
5. Victor Martinez (DH)
6. Andy Dirks (RF)
7. Jhonny Peralta (SS)
8. Alex Avila (C)
9. Omar Infante (2B)

Rotation:
1. Justin Verlander
2. Max Scherzer
3. Doug Fister
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. Drew Smyly

Bench: (not set in stone) Gerald Laird, Ramon Santiago, Brennan Boesch, Ryan Raburn

Bullpen: (not set in stone) Phil Coke, Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Al Alburquerque, Rick Porcello, Brayan Villarreal and Duane Below.

[* I’m confused as to whether Pagan has an arbitration year left or not. Anyone out there who knows better?]

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