Detroit Tigers: 5 Starting Pitching Questions

Mar 16, 2015; Jupiter, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher David Price (14) delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Tigers 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout much of this decade the Detroit Tigers had a dominant pitching staff.

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That dominance faltered in 2014 as Detroit starters fell to the lower end of the pack for AL starting pitching. Starters allowed 4.35 runs per game last year, 10th out 15 teams and below the 4.14 league average.

Those stats include Drew Smyly, who was up and down before being traded to Tampa Bay, but caught fire for the Rays. It also includes David Price who came in return of Smyly (and Austin Jackson by way of Seattle) and several young Tigers’ spot starters which included Buck Farmer, Kyle Lobstein, Robbie Ray, Kyle Ryan and Drew VerHagen.

Two-fifths of the starters that ended 2014 with the Tigers have departed (Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello). Losing Max is a huge hit to the Tigers’ rotation. They had three starters that arguably could be dynamic at the start of last season (Justin Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez). Verlander’s struggles knocked him off that list as did Sanchez’s injuries. Price arrived and gave the Tigers’ a very good 1-2 punch, but where do we stand in 2015?

One could argue that only Price is considered dynamic because of Verlander’s continued struggles and Sanchez’s durability concerns.

So let’s take a look at the five starters and a question about each one as we move toward Opening Day.

Mar 25, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Alfredo Simon (31) throws a pitch before the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the Miami Marlins at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

#5: Will Alfredo Simon Last in the Rotation All Year?

I poised the question to the MCB staff at the start of Spring Training about Alfredo Simon, asking if he would win the fifth starter. The question was of course yes because the Tigers gave up some good players (Eugenio Suarez and Jonathan Crawford) to rent him for at least one year.

Dave Dombrowski made the deal with the Cincinnati Reds hours after sending Porcello to the Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes and a couple minor leaguers. DD filled the starter’s hole with someone who has been a reliever much of his career. His 32 starts last year doubled his previous career high of 16 in 2011 with the Baltimore Orioles.

Simon had an outstanding first half with an ERA hovering below three all the way up until August, earning the first All-Star appearance of his career.  But he was hit hard in August and September, posting a 4.71 ERA down the stretch for a non-contending Cincinnati team.

On the surface you look at it and say the guy he is replacing, Porcello, was an up and down starter for the Tigers for many years and he, like Simon, had a second-half swoon. Still, watching him in Spring Training has not provided anyone with much confidence that he will be equal to what Rick offered. Simon has continued those late season struggles, posting an ERA above 7, in his first four games this March. Although he did likely pitch his best effort thus far yesterday, going six strong innings, allowing five hits on one run, striking out two and walking three batters.

Again, the Tigers paid a heavy price for Simon so they are counting on him to be the #4 or #5 starter this season, but with the youngsters we mentioned above in Ryan, Lobstein and others starting in Toledo and waiting in the wings, his leash might be a little shorter than anyone imagines.

Mar 8, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Shane Greene (61) throws a pitch against the Houston Astros at a spring training baseball game at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

#4: Will Shane Greene Continue to Develop?

As we discussed with Simon at #4, the Detroit Tigers are putting a lot of faith in the back-end of their rotation, but perhaps there is a little less concern with Shane Greene.

This is due to a couple of factors. One of which was that Greene didn’t have any trouble pitching in one of the toughest media/fan markets for athletes, New York City. The Yankees were decimated with starting pitching problems because of injuries to C.C. Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka and Greene answered the bell.

Greene was rookie in 2014, posting a 3.78 ERA, although that got driven up a bit with a couple of poor outings near the end of the season.

Greene caught Detroit’s attention with a pair of starts against them last August and he is a strikeout pitcher (averaging one per inning), so he fits the Tigers’ mold pretty well.

There is always a concern that what he showed in 2014 was an aberration and/or he will experience a sophomore slump. That’s the risk the Tigers run with him. He started Spring Training off slowly, but has gotten better and allowed just one earned run and obtained plenty of swings and misses on Saturday.

A little bit older than the typical second-year pitcher, the 26-year old figures to benefit from Comerica Park’s gargantuan dimensions when compared to Yankee Stadium.

I’m more confident with Greene than Simon, but don’t be surprised if he has a more up and down year than he experienced in the Bronx.

Feb 23, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander (35) pitches during Monday mornings workout at Joker Merchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

#3 Can Justin Verlander Adapt?

We always have to be careful about gauging Spring Training results when looking toward the regular season. A few weeks ago I mentioned the infamous six-run Joe Nathan Grapefruit League inning and was shouted down because it was only an Exhibition game.

I get that, but you can couple the body of work of the last regular season with the current Spring Training results and at least hazard a guess.

Hazarding a guess how Justin Verlander will do this coming season might not be pretty for some.

He pitched decent his first couple starts but has allowed nine earned runs over two recent starts. In his last outing, he pitched pretty well, but allowed a homer and left with a leg cramp with two outs in the fourth inning. Verlander is still not getting the swings and misses he would like and admitted a little over a week ago that he was “not there yet.” With time winding down in Spring Training, he had better find “there” and get “there” in a hurry.

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Even when J.V. was firing on all cylinders earlier in his career, he was never great in Spring Training. True competitors understand that practice games are more for working on stuff than getting positive results, but this Grapefruit League was supposed to be different for Verlander and he was supposed to reestablish his dominance.

Before the season Verlander pledged to change things up if he needed to but was hoping that the negative results of 2014 were more because of offseason surgery than advancing age. I think it is clear that he must finally accept that his overpowering fastball is gone (something not unheard of for a 32-year old), set aside his ego and adapt to other ways of recording outs.

Pitchers have done this quite successfully over the years–former Tiger Frank Tanana comes to mind–a pitcher who could blow batters away in his youth but became crafty in later years.

Verlander is smart enough and talented enough to do this as well.

Mar 9, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez (19) throws a pitch in the first inning of the spring training baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

#2: Can Anibal Sanchez Stay Healthy?

When the Detroit Tigers lost Anibal Sanchez down the stretch last season, it was a huge blow to the team’s playoff chances. Luckily by holding such a head-to-head dominance over the second-place Kansas City Royals, they didn’t have to worry too much about getting to the postseason even if they had to wait to clinch the division on the final day of the season.

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Sanchez missed about seven weeks from August 8 until the final home stand of the season, and it was his second DL stint of the season. The earlier DL stint was less severe, missing time because of a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand. When he came back in May, he was one of the Tigers few bright spots during their infamous 9-19 slide and the most consistent starter through July and into August.

The Tigers weathered the storm without him as much as possible with rookie Kyle Lobstein filling in admirably, but the team truly missed the mystique of Sanchez going every fifth day.

When healthy, Sanchez could be an ace on practically any team in baseball. His 2013 year was extremely solid but was upstaged by Max Scherzer’s Cy Young season. Anibal went 14-8 with an AL-best 2.57 ERA and a WHIP of 1.154.