Detroit Tigers: Looking at recent disappointing seasons to predict 2016

Aug 6, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler (3) receives congratulations from teammates after hitting a walk-off two-run home run in the ninth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park. Detroit won 8-6. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Detroit Tigers are finishing the season out of the playoffs for the first time since 2010, and will finish with a losing record (and probably a last place finish) for the first time since 2008.

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A lot of us expected the Tigers to take a step back this season. I personally felt that this team would finish in third place in the AL Central, missing the postseason but would finish above .500 with about 85 wins.

Throughout 2015, as we all witnessed the team falling further and further out of contention, we thought that they would reboot, sign free agents and hire a new manager. Now one of those things is not going to happen.

The second half of the season has shown that the Tigers have a lot of work to do to get back into the ranks of the elite teams of the American League, perhaps more than we anticipated. Then again, the Tigers shipped away three pieces of their Opening Day lineup in David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria at the trading deadline and the results from July 31 on were predictably bad.

If all goes well, we will be looking for the Tigers to go from first to worst in one year and then come back to contend for a World Series the next. But, looking at recent disappointing seasons–it does not seem that the Tigers have always been able to bounce back quickly.

Let’s take a look and see for ourselves…

Next: The Beginning of the Dark Era

1989 Detroit Tigers

I have a yearbook in my archives of Detroit Tigers memorabilia that has gone from house to house throughout childhood, college, first home and a cross-country move from Michigan to Florida. We all have those boxes that we only look at maybe once every three years when the wife tells us to clear out boxes, but there are certain things that can’t be thrown out for whatever reason.

I don’t know why I think the 1989 Tigers’ yearbook will be a collector’s item, but it is interesting nonetheless. It promotes the Tigers as the “winningest team” of the 1980’s because of their World Series victory in 1984, AL East divisional title in 1987 and near-misses in a couple other years of the decade. The last year of that decade would ruin this honor.

The year before 1989 was really the last hurrah of the 1984 champs. By that time some of the championship core was still in place, but Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Jack Morris and others were starting to show signs of age. Lance Parrish had been gone for a couple of years. Matt Nokes could not sustain his shocking rookie year of 1987, but the 1988 Tigers gave it their all, finishing only one game behind the AL East champion Boston Red Sox.

It would be the closest the Tigers would get to the top for the next 18 years.

That off-season, the Tigers decided to go with a youth movement and got rid of some veterans like Tom Brookens, Pat Sheridan for journeymen Keith Moreland, Chris Brown and other hacks. They even parted ways with aging 1984 hero Darrell Evans, who had hit 22 homers at the age of 41 in ’88.

The pitching staff was a variable retirement home, consisting of Doyle Alexander, Frank Tanana and Willie Hernandez (who was going by “Guillermo” by that time). Without the support coming from the minor leagues, which were largely ignored during former owner Tom Monahan’s time, the Tigers cratered big time, losing 103 games–the most since 1975.

For Hall-0f-Fame manager Sparky Anderson, it was the first time he had to manage a lousy team. The team being bad weighed on him so much that he contemplated quitting and ultimately took a leave of absence.

Throughout my three years writing for MCB, I have always referenced what I call the dark era for Detroit Tigers’ baseball. That era began in 1989 and stretched until the end of the 2005 season.

I was young in 1989 and only knew successful Tigers’ teams in my life. For an 11-year old that lived and breathed baseball, that was a tough thing to take. I have to imagine that older fans back then may have thought that 1989 was just a one year foray into lousy baseball, but that was not the case.

While the Tigers improved in 1990, and could have been considered technically in the race for a while, behind the powerful bat of Cecil Fielder‘s 51 homers, they still finished below .500. They would finish above it in 1991 and 1993, the latter of which the team led the AL East from April through mid-June. But those would be the last contending teams for a very long time.

Next: Failed Expectations

Jul 1, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) in the dugout before the game against the Oakland Athletics at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

2008 Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers entered into the 2008 season as heavy favorites to win the World Series, perhaps the one season in which the Tigers were the consensus to win it all during their recent run of success.

This came from being a surprise team to go to the World Series in 2006 and had a strong follow-up season in 2007. During the All-Star break that year the Tigers had the best record in baseball, but a resurgent Cleveland Indians team rolled in the second half. If Cleveland hadn’t been so hot, Detroit might have been able to survive being sub-.500 after the All-Star break because of how good they had played early on, but it didn’t happen that way.

In the offseason, Dave Dombrowski made the trade of the century, plucking young slugger Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins for a bunch of nobodies (although Andrew Miller developed into a nice player, though he went through many teams to get there).

All of these factors made the Tigers seem like they’d be a juggernaut all season long.

But the team struggled out of the gate, particularly Cabrera who was learning the pitchers of his new league and was really bad at third base until Jim Leyland decided to shift him to first.

Shockingly, that team had some unfortunate breaks that saw them start the season at 0-7. Although they were able to eventually chip away at that deficit and start making a run, even making it to a high water mark of 52-49 on July 23, another poor stretch in the second half sealed their fate, finishing at 74-88.

One year later, there were no expectations that the Tigers would win anything, yet they won 12 more games and led the division for all of the second half until the final weekend of the year, and we all know what happened there.

But by simply going to a 163rd game showed that the franchise could bounce back from disappointment, even if 2009 wasn’t their year yet.

Neither was 2010…

Next: Team of Transition

Apr 6, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez (19) and second baseman Ian Kinsler (3) hold up a flag for the 2014 AL Central Division Championship prior to the game against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Conclusion

This list of teams is a mixed bag. Some had success the year after a disappointing season while others signaled the beginning of a stretch with a lack of relevance for a Detroit Tigers team.

We won’t begin to hazard a guess on what might happen with the 2016 Tigers until we see the moves that Al Avila makes in his first offseason at the helm.

One thing is for sure, it will not be as easy as we all thought to reboot this team. Then again, it may not be as tough as we are all fearing as the season reaches its conclusion.

Next: Brad Ausmus is coming back!