Detroit Tigers: Why A Potential Justin Wilson Trade Return Should Be Significant

Detroit Tigers reliever Justin Wilson’s name has come up in trade rumors recently. Should the team move the veteran pitcher in a trade, the return should be significant.

Detroit Tigers general manager Al Avila leaves the Winter Meetings with just one relatively significant move made.

The team brought in Daniel Stumpf via the Rule 5 draft.

While Avila also added two minor league players via the Triple-A portion of the draft, much of the rumors regarding the Tigers involved potentially trading away players.

As it happens, the names of Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Justin Verlander and Ian Kinsler didn’t dominate the headlines. Instead of Detroit’s veterans with higher salaries, younger players with relatively inexpensive salaries drew trade interest.

Jose Iglesias was rumored to be of interest to the San Diego Padres, but much of the Tigers rumors coming from the Winter Meetings regarded reliever Justin Wilson.

Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi tweeted about Wilson on Tuesday morning, “Many teams at Winter Meetings looking for left-handed relief; the #Tigers’ Justin Wilson is a popular name, source says. @MLB.”

It is easy to see the appeal with Wilson. The reliever throws in the mid-90s and is coming off a season in which he struck out 9.97 batters per nine innings. Additionally, Wilson logged a 3.02 SIERA.

If the Detroit Tigers end up trading Justin Wilson, the return needs to be significant.

Why Justin Wilson Could Have Value on the Trade Market Should Detroit Decide to Move Him

Not only does Justin Wilson throw hard and miss bats (12.5 swinging strike percentage), but he’s also controllable at a relatively inexpensive rate.

Per Spotrac, the reliever is controllable through 2018. Additionally, MLBTradeRumors projects a $2.7 million salary for the 29-year-old in 2017.

Elsewhere on the free agent market, fellow relievers like Joaquin Benoit and Marc Rzepczynski are signing deals with values that far exceed Wilson’s projected salary.

In a tweet sent out on Monday afternoon, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, “Joaquin Benoit’s one-year deal with Phillies will pay him $7.5 million, according to a source. That is what he made in 2016, too.”

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported the specifics of Rzepczynski’s contract, tweeting on December 2^nd, “Marc Rzepczynski’s deal with #Mariners is for 2 years and $11M. He gets $5.5M each year.”

Benoit’s WAR in 2016 was 0.5. Rzepczynski’s WAR checked in at 0.4.

Justin Wilson’s WAR in 2016? 1.0.

Detroit’s setup man is without question the better reliever of the three, and given the high prices on the free agent market, teams may be willing to give up more in a trade to save money.

Recent Deals

While the free agent market has provided a number of relatively lucrative contracts for relievers lately, teams have also received excellent returns in recent trades for bullpen arms.

The Kansas City Royals flipped Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs for Jorge Soler.

Davis is under team control for one more season, while Soler doesn’t reach free agency until the conclusion of the 2020 campaign and looks like a potential middle-of-the-order bat.

While Wilson doesn’t have the track record that Davis does, Detroit’s setup reliever should still fetch a high price in a trade should the Tigers chose to move him.

Another recent example that may be more comparable is the Tyler Thornburg trade.

Boston acquired the 28-year-old for Travis Shaw and a pair of minor league prospects with Major League upside.

Over the past two seasons, Shaw has accumulated 3.0 WAR while providing pop at both infield corner spots. The 26-year-old isn’t arbitration eligible until after the 2018 season, and is under team control through 2021.

Last season, Shaw drove in 71 runs in 145 games. He also collected 63 runs scored, 34 doubles, 16 home runs, five stolen bases and a pair of triples.

Additionally, one of the two prospects heading to the Brewers, Mauricio Dubon, batted .339 in Double-A last season. He could be in the Majors before too long.

The third prospect in the deal, Josh Pennington, is a 21-year-old starting pitcher who owns a 2.29 ERA in the low minors.