Detroit Tigers are down, but not 100% out of playoff contention at this point

2 of 3

BALTIMORE, MD – AUGUST 05: Justin Upton #8 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates with Nicholas Castellanos #9 after hitting a two-run home run in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 5, 2017 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /

Detroit Tigers fans haven’t seen the season many envisioned. While the Tigers are buried in the Wild Card standings, the team still has the smallest of chances to sneak into the postseason.

Detroit Tigers players entered Tuesday with a 53-65 record and 12 games back in the race for the American League Central crown.

At this point, you can probably wave goodbye to any chance of catching Cleveland, but there’s still a chance—albeit a small one—that the Tigers can claw their way back into the Wild Card.

Now, before we get any further, it should be noted that FanGraphs currently has the Tigers’ playoff odds at 0.4 as of Tuesday.

That’s low, very low. But it isn’t zero.

At the time of writing this, the Tigers are seven games back in the Wild Card.

Additionally, only the Oakland Athletics and the rebuilding Chicago White Sox are below Detroit in the American League Wild Card Race.

However, their isn’t exactly been a team running away with things like the Houston Astros are in the American League West.

The Yankees are probably a decent bet to pencil in as the first wild card given their superior record and run differential, but after that it’s a whole lot of underwhelming teams from a record and run differential.

This is the case so much so that FanGraphs has the Angels, currently tied for the second Wild Card Spot, with a projected 82 wins.

That’s just one game (!) over .500.

PITTSBURGH, PA – AUGUST 08: Jeimer Candelario #46 of the Detroit Tigers singles to right field in the sixth inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on August 8, 2017 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

Best of the Rest?

Getting to said 82 wins would be a tough task for the Tigers, but it isn’t impossible. What’s more, no teams are exactly lighting the world on fire to sneak into the postseason.

Outside of the Yankees just one other team has a run differential in the green—the Texas Rangers.

The Yankees, Twins, Royals and Angels are the only teams with their respective heads above water in terms of the .500 mark, and the last three are each just two games.

Essentially, the Wild Card race is just waiting for a team to get hot and slide in next to New York atop the proceedings.

A hot streak from the Tigers—something that isn’t totally out of the question given the talent on the team—may not vault the club to the top of the standings.

However, it would put Detroit back in the thick of things.

If Detroit can somehow trim the wild card lead down to something like five games by the beginning of September, they’ll have a decent chance of turning things around.

September Call Ups

Once September hits, the Tigers will be able to augment the team’s roster with additional call ups.

This means more bullpen options for Brad Ausmus to tinker with, as well as additional bench options.

In a perfect world, Detroit will be able to ease Jairo Labourt, Myles Jaye and perhaps Bryan Garcia and Zac Reininger into the Majors while veterans like Buck Farmer, Kyle Ryan and Blaine Hardy return and throw effectively.

The likes of Labourt and Garcia may provide upgrades in the bullpen considering their ability to miss bats.

Additionally, Jim Adduci and JaCoby Jones should also return, giving the team a solid pinch-hitting option and a pinch-running threat late in games.

Should Nicholas Castellanos move to right field more often down the stretch, Detroit will be able to utilize Jeimer Candelario at third base more.

This could help Detroit win a game or two purely based on the defensive upgrade.

So far this season, Castellanos has notched a -9.2 UZR/150, a -6.6 UZR and a -12 DRS in 984.1 defensive innings at third this season.

Using Candelario, who profiles as a steadier defender, should help matters.

KANSAS CITY, MO – JULY 19: Starting pitcher Justin Verlander #35 of the Detroit Tigers pitches during the 1st inning of the game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on July 19, 2017 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

Schedule

Moving forward, the Detroit Tigers have plenty of challenging games on the schedule.

The team has upcoming series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the aforementioned Yankees and the Colorado Rockies.

Detroit has shown well against strong competition in the past, taking two of three from the Houston Astros in the Motor City before nabbing two of three in the Bronx in consecutive series.

Both the upcoming series against the Dodgers and Yankees will come in Detroit, where the Tigers are 29-28 this season.

That mark isn’t anything to write home about, but it is significantly better than the 24-37 road record for Brad Ausmus’ team.

Additionally, the Tigers also play 10 of the team’s final 49 games against the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics. Miguel Cabrera and company will also match up with the Minnesota Twins seven more times.

Minnesota may be ahead of Detroit in the Wild Card Standings this season, but the Tigers are 7-5 against their American League Central rivals in 2017.

In Conclusion

Sure making the playoffs may not be the most likely of outcomes—FanGraphs does have the team’s playoff odds at 0.4 after all—but crazier things have happened.

The Tigers aren’t a perfect team, but they have an offense that when right can score runs with the best of them.

Detroit also has Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer each throwing once every five days, which should keep an excellent chance to win at least 40% of the games they play in.

Next: Long-term successors for expensive veterans

In a season when .500, or barely over, could get a team into the playoffs, the Detroit Tigers have a shot, they just need some breaks to fall their way.

Home / Detroit Tigers News