Detroit Tigers: Predicting Ian Kinsler’s trade market

Detroit Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler is one of the team best trade chips heading into the offseason. It remains to be seen if he’s dealt, but if he is, these teams could be trade fits.

Detroit Tigers general manager Al Avila still has a number of significant trade chips at his disposal.

Dating back to the end of the 2016 season, Avila has traded outfielders Cameron Maybin, J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton, closer Justin Wilson, catcher Alex Avila and starting pitcher Justin Verlander for a haul of prospects who should help the Tigers eventually return to prominence.

Starting pitcher Franklin Perez, outfielder Daz Cameron and catcher Jake Rogers (all acquired in the Verlander deal) along with third baseman Jeimer Candelario and shortstop Isaac Paredes (brought in in the Wilson trade) add more talent to a promising farm system.

While they won’t all reach the Majors at once, the aforementioned prospects—along with the likes of Alex Faedo, Matt Manning, Christin Stewart, Beau Burrows, Kyle Funkhouser and Mike Gerber—set Detroit on a path to more sustained success in the future.

This is all without mentioning Grayson Long, part of the return in the Upton trade, who could be in the Tigers’ rotation sometime next season.

There’s also Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and King, the three infield prospects acquired from Arizona for Martinez.

For the most part, Avila did extremely well in extracting value from his veteran performers.

However, he still has a number of prime trade chips.

Trade chips

One is closer Shane Greene, one is shortstop Jose Iglesias and another is second baseman Ian Kinsler.

It remains to be seen if players like Greene, Michael Fulmer or Mikie Mahtook are traded considering all three are controllable for the long haul.

Per Spotrac, Greene is controllable through 2020, Mahtook through 2021 and Fulmer through 2020.

It’s very possible that all three could be part of the next great Detroit Tigers team. This makes them somewhat less likely to be traded.

On the other hand, there’s Iglesias and Kinsler.

Short-term deals

According to Spotrac, the shortstop will go through arbitration once more before becoming a free agent following the 2018 campaign.

Meanwhile, Kinsler (according to the same publication) will make $11 million in 2018 before becoming a free agent himself.

Despite a down year at the dish (91 wRC+ and a .313 on-base percentage), Kinsler still mashed 22 home runs to go along with 14 stolen bases.

His 2.4 WAR led all Tigers players still on the roster at season’s end.

While Kinsler didn’t have his best season at the plate, it’s his only real down campaign in the last five years.

It still remains to be seen if Kinsler is dealt, but because of that track record, Detroit should be able to get a promising return in any trade involving the second baseman.

Here’s a look at the clubs who could be trade fits for Kinsler.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Detroit Tigers have made two trades with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the past year.

Deals sending Cameron Maybin and Justin Upton to Anaheim have netted Detroit pitching prospects Victor Alcantara, Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez as well as plenty of salary relief.

However, there may not be much left in the farm system for a potential Ian Kinsler trade.

The Halos certainly have a need. Despite 24 games of Brandon Phillips down the stretch, the team’s second baseman combined to post the 28^th-lowest WAR and the joint-lowest wRC+.

Phillips is a free agent at the end of the season, so Anaheim could once again be in the market for a second baseman.

With Phillips, Yunel Escobar, Jesse Chavez, Ben Revere, Cliff Pennington, Yusmeiro Petit and Bud Norris slated for free agency and club options on both starter Ricky Nolasco and reliever Huston Street, Anaheim will certainly have the financial flexibility.

However, Detroit should probably look elsewhere.

Anaheim’s best trade chips

Minor leaguers like Jo Adell, Jahmai Jones, Matt Thaiss and Griffin Canning all have upside.

However, it remains to be seen if the Angels will deal from a perilously thin farm system.

Unless the Tigers can convince Anaheim to part with a player like high-leverage reliever Cam Bedrosian or 26-year-old starter Andrew Heaney, there isn’t too much in the way of trade chips in the Anaheim organization that could help a Detroit rebuild.

That being said, a pitcher of Bedrosian’s caliber would certainly help the Tigers.

Just 26, the right-hander pitched to a 2.77 SIERA and 11.38 strikeouts per nine frames in 40.1 innings last year.

He also posted a 3.45 SIERA and 10.68 strikeouts per nine innings in 44.2 frames in 2017.

Pairing the reliever, who is controllable through 2021 per Spotrac, with Shane Greene and Joe Jimenez at the end of games would give the Detroit Tigers a dynamic backend of the bullpen for the foreseeable future.

Tampa Bay Rays

Like their division-rival Blue Jays, the Rays also received below-par production from the team’s second baseman.

Tampa Bay second baseman finished 27^th in the league with a -0.3 WAR.

Predominantly using a combination of Brad Miller and Daniel Robertson, Rays’ second baseman also checked in at 27^th in the league in cumulative wRC+ with a 75 number.

In years past, Tampa Bay hasn’t competed with a high payroll, so acquiring Kinsler and his $11 million salary (per Spotrac) isn’t exactly the best fit from a financial standpoint.

Still Tampa Bay has a number of contracts coming off the books this winter, including reliever Steve Cishek, third baseman Trevor Plouffe, starting pitcher Alex Cobb, reliever Tommy Hunter, outfielders Colby Rasmus and Peter Bourjos and first baseman Lucas Duda and Logan Morrison.

The Rays could cut down even more salary by moving shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, who is set to go through arbitration after making $4.35 million this season (according to Spotrac).

Tampa could then promote Willy Adames to take Hechavarria’s place and slide Brad Miller back to first base.

This would leave second base open for Kinsler.

These Rays players and prospects fit with Detroit’s rebuild

In return for the veteran, there are a number of players who could be fits in Detroit.

Hard-throwing reliever Ryne Stanek, who pitched to a 1.21 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 44.2 Triple-A innings in 2017 could pitch at the back end of Detroit’s bullpen.

Stanek also made 21 appearances in the Majors this season. The 2013 first-round pick also turned in a 3.67 SIERA and 13.05 punch outs per nine frames.

Other hypothetical trade targets include outfielder and speed merchant Mallex Smith and starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi.

Smith is currently buried on the depth chart by Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier and Steven Souza Jr.

Meanwhile, Eovaldi will return to the Majors in 2018 after missing most of 2017 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery.

The Rays have a $2 million club option on the ex-Yankee for the 2018 season. Detroit could take on the salary in part to help Tampa Bay make financial room for Kinsler.

It’s worth noting that Eovaldi could develop into a potential trade chip if he can find his old form.

In 2014 and 2015 he turned in WARs of 2.9 and 3.2 respectively while keeping his FIP south of 3.50 in both seasons.

Next: Why Tigers need to be aggressive on waiver wire this winter

Over the course of the two seasons, the starter logged 354 innings.