Detroit Tigers free agency primer: Examining the first base market

Detroit Tigers fans could be in for a busy offseason. As it stands, first base isn’t a pressing need for the Tigers. That being said, the team should look into a signing at first this winter.

Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera had what was perhaps his worst offensive season to date in 2017.

Affected by injuries at times, Cabrera turned in a 91 wRC+, a .329 on-base percentage and a .149 ISO.

His WAR slipped below zero for the first time ever, checking in a -0.2.

It was a very un-Miguel Cabrera season to put it plainly.

Hopefully, the future Hall of Famer will be able to rebound in 2018 and turn in a productive season as a fully-healthy member of Detroit’s lineup.

Short of executing a successful rebuild, the Tigers’ top priority should be extending Cabrera’s career.

After all, the 34-year-old is currently signed through 2023, with mutual options for the 2024 and 2025 seasons (per Spotrac).

Even if Cabrera was productive, that’s a difficult contract to move. In other words, the slugger likely isn’t going anywhere.

Considering he’ll likely be part of the next great Detroit Tigers team purely based on his contract length, the franchise needs to keep him as productive as possible so he can return to his elite production at the dish.

The best way to do that would be to shift him to designated hitter.

V-Mart

Of course, Detroit currently has Victor Martinez installed at the position.

While Martinez’ trade market is limited and his situation is somewhat complicated by the fact that he can veto any deal due to his 10-and-5 rights, the Tigers could conceivably trade him.

If that doesn’t happen, Detroit can always cut him loose to make room on both the 40-man and active roster for another player.

The free agent market

The free agent market at first base isn’t as expansive as say, the group of free agent outfielders.

Among the outfielders who could potentially hit the free agent market include J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Lorenzo Cain, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Andrew McCutchen and others.

At the same time, the first base market isn’t as limited as the second base or shortstop markets, where there are few starting options.

If Cabrera is in fact moved off the position to designated hitter, the Detroit Tigers could be fits for a number of free agent first baseman.

The most unlikeliest candidates to sign with the Tigers. Probably really unlikely. Did I mention unlikely?

Eric Hosmer

2017 team: Kansas City Royals
2017 stat of note: 4.1 WAR

A quality defender, Hosmer has had solid offensive years in the past, but nothing quite like his breakout campaign of 2017.

The Royals’ first baseman hit .318 with a .385 on-base percentage, a .498 slugging percentage, a 135 wRC+, a .376 wOBA, 98 runs scored, 94 RBI, 25 home runs and six stolen bases.

He also added a .179 ISO while notching a career-high 9.8 walk percentage and a 15.5 strikeout percentage that was his lowest since the 2013 season.

At 28, he’s going to command a significant contract as the best option on the free agent market.

It remains to be seen if he returns to Kansas City or not, but Hosmer probably isn’t jumping ship to Detroit given the rebuild and the fact that the franchise probably shouldn’t sink more money into a veteran first baseman.

Carlos Santana

2017 team: Cleveland
2017 stat of note: .274 BABIP

Always a source of walks and a high on-base percentage, Santana hit .259 with a .363 on-base percentage, a .455 slugging percentage, a 117 wRC+, a .196 ISO, 90 runs scored, 79 RBI and 23 home runs in 667 plate appearances despite a .274 BABIP.

Like Hosmer, Santana probably isn’t going to move inside the division from a highly-successful club to a rebuilding Tigers team.

Stranger things have happened, but this looks unlikely.

It’s possible, but there are some hurdles

Mike Napoli

2017 team: Texas Rangers
2017 stat of note: .235 ISO

A prime candidate to be signed to a one-year deal and flipped for prospects in July, Mike Napoli may or may not hit the free agent market.

According to Spotrac, the 35-year-old has an $11 million option on his contract for next which Texas can either exercise or buy out for $2.5 million.

With Joey Gallo now blocking Napoli at first base, and Willie Calhoun, Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo candidates to rotate in from the outfield to designated hitter, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Rangers moved on from Napoli.

It doesn’t hurt that the veteran is a .274 hitter with a .340 on-base percentage, a .578 slugging percentage, a .918 OPS, 23 RBI and 12 home runs in 150 lifetime plate appearances at Comerica Park.

Matt Holliday

2017 team: New York Yankees
2017 stat of note: .201 ISO

While Napoli’s hurdle is whether he’ll enter the free agent market, Holliday’s would be if he’d consider signing up for part of a rebuild in the twilight of his career.

At 38, the veteran helped the Yankees back to the playoffs with a .201 ISO, 37 extra-base hits and a 98 wRC+ in 427 plate appearances.

Operating as a designated hitter and occasional first baseman, Holiday would probably need to play the field more in Detroit with Cabrera at designated hitter.

Like Napoli, he’d be a potential trade chip at the deadline.

More likely, or at least conceivable, scenarios

It obviously remains to be seen if the Detroit Tigers are able to sign any of the following players.

However, if the team can snag any of the following players on one-year deals, it would be a win for the franchise.

Mitch Moreland

2017 team: Boston Red Sox
2017 stat of note: +10 DRS

After years in Texas, Moreland spent 2017 with the Boston Red Sox. Similar to Holliday, he helped his new team to the postseason on a one-year deal.

Moreland is essentially Navarro with a more productive bat.

The ex-Ranger was responsible for a +10 DRS and a 5.8 UZR/150. He also tacked on a .769 OPS, 23 home runs, a .197 ISO, a 98 wRC+ and a 0.9 WAR in 576 plate appearances.

At 32, Moreland probably isn’t a long-term piece, but Moreland could save the team some runs at first base while adding some pop to the lineup.

Logan Morrison

2017 team: Tampa Bay Rays
2017 stat of note: 130 wRC+

Morrison helped boost his free agent stock significantly with a monster 2017 campaign at the plate.

The first baseman mashed 38 home runs and turned in a .270 ISO that finished tied with Charlie Blackmon for 10^th-highest nark in the league.

What’s more, the ex-Mariner notched a 130 wRC+ and a .363 wOBA despite having his production hampered by a .268 BABIP.

He could provide significant value, especially if he’s able to replicate his power numbers on a one-year contract.

If Morrison’s BABIP numbers come up to around league average, he could prove to be a significant run-producer in the middle of Detroit’s lineup.

If that hypothetical scenario pans out, the Tigers should be able to flip him for a handsome return.

More likely, or at least conceivable, scenarios (continued)

Yonder Alonso

2017 teams: Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners
2017 stat of note: 2.4 WAR

It was very much a tale of two seasons for Yonder Alonso.

An All-Star in the first half with Oakland, the first baseman collected 22 home runs in 371 plate appearances to go along with a 137 wRC+, a .260 ISO, a .369 on-base percentage and a 13.5 walk percentage.

After being traded to Seattle, Alonso hit just six home runs in 150 plate appearances. He added a 118 wRC+, a .174 ISO, a .353 on-base percentage and a 12.0 walk percentage.

The on-base ability was still there for the first baseman, but he wasn’t able to replicate his power surge upon his move to the Pacific Northwest.

If Alonso can produce at a rate similar to his Oakland stats, he’d be a quality addition on a one-year pact.

Oakland was able to net 24-year-old outfielder Boog Powell in the deal for the former Padre.

A similar trade return for the Tigers would only help the rebuild in the sense that the team would be getting a controllable, Major-League piece with upside.

Lucas Duda

2017 teams: New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays
2017 stat of note: .279 ISO

Rounding out the list of potential first base fits on the free agent market for the Detroit Tigers is Lucas Duda.

Acquired from the Rays by the Mets at med-season for ex-Tigers pitching prospect Drew Smith, Duda didn’t do much outside of contributing in the power department at the plate.

That being said, Duda destroyed plenty of baseballs in 2017. He posted a .279 ISO to go along with a .496 slugging percentage, 30 home runs and 28 doubles in just 491 plate appearances.

Next: Carlos Gonzalez is a fit for the Tigers as a free agent, it's true.

For a Detroit team in need of power—the Tigers ranked 18^th in slugging percentage and 19^th in ISO in September—Duda would be an intriguing, short-term add.