Detroit Tigers: Should they sell high on Mikie Mahtook?

Long-term piece?

In a time where controllability is king, Mikie Mahtook certainly fits the bill as a long-term asset for a team.

However, is that team the Detroit Tigers?

The question is more, can the Tigers contend in the next four years?

In a perfect world, Detroit will be able to surprise some people next season and expedite the rebuild somewhat.

Relatively strong seasons from Fulmer, Matthew Boyd and Daniel Norris would certainly go a long way toward achieving that goal.

That being said, the reality is that much of Detroit’s exciting young talent is either at Double-A or in the low minors.

So while the likes of Franklin Perez, Beau Burrows, Grayson Long and Dawel Lugo could be in the Majors at some point next season, it could also take them longer to reach Detroit.

All in all, there are a lot of variables that could make this a shorter rebuild or a lengthier one.

If the Tigers think they can turn things around sooner rather than later, it make sense to hang on to Mahtook.

However, if it’s a lengthier rebuild, Detroit may find it prudent to move Mahtook while his value is high.

The team also have Mike Gerber and Christin Stewart close to the Majors.

Detroit can always deal Mahtook for prospects and sign a veteran to a short-term deal to serve as a place holder for Gerber or Stewart.

Can the Detroit Tigers move Mahtook for a relatively premium return? Or at least significant pieces that can help the team in the future?

These two questions would probably be easy yeses from an answer standpoint if the free agent and trade markets were devoid of outfield options.

However, that’s not exactly the case.

The free agent market is littered with outfield bats, many of whom (J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson—I can keep going—Rajai Davis and Cameron Maybin) used to play for Detroit.

There’s also plenty of other intriguing outfielders who aren’t former Tigers, from Michael Brantley and Lorenzo Cain to Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez and Jay Bruce.

Purely from a financial standpoint, other teams may find it more appealing to trade for Mahtook than overpay an aging player with a multi-year deal as said player begins to decline.

Per Spotrac, the outfielder has four years of controllability left and isn’t eligible until arbitration until after the 2018 campaign.

The trade market

Mahtook certainly wouldn’t draw the kind of prospect haul that other outfielders conceivably on the trade market would.

The likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Randal Grichuk hold more value than the Detroit outfielder based on their respective track records.

Still, in a similar vein to the free agent market, Mahtook could appeal to teams who aren’t willing to sacrifice the kind of prospect capital required to nab Yellich or Grichuk.

If Mahtook is shopped, the Tigers should market him as a center fielder to maximize any potential return.

His power and extra-base ability plays better in center field, where slugging players are less common.

Had Mahtook qualified from a plate appearances standpoint, he would have tied for eighth in the league among center fielders in ISO.

The seven players with a higher ISO number include Andrew McCutchen, Chris Taylor, Tommy Pham, George Springer, Granderson, Charlie Blackmon and some Anaheim player named Mike Trout. Might have heard of him.

Speculative trade partners

Given Mahtook’s ability to slot in at any of the three outfield spots, he could be a fit for pretty much any team in the league.

His defensive metrics in 2017 (-2.0 UZR/150, -13 DRS, -4.3 ARM) weren’t anything to write home about.

However, the former first-round pick showed much better in 2016 (10.9 ZUR/150, + 1 DRS, 0.9 ARM) and 2015 (29.7, -1 DRS, -0.1 ARM), suggesting 2017 could simply be an off year defensively.

Additionally, his second half surge this season should be any doubt about his hitting ability to rest after a down year at the plate in 2016 (33 wRC+ in 196 plate appearances) and a slow start (48 wRC+, .249 wOBA in 63 plate appearances through May 31) to 2017.

Mahtook hit .283 with a .356 on-base percentage, a .486 slugging percentage, a .841 OPS, a .203 ISO, a .358 wOBA and a 122 wRC+.

He also tacked on an 8.4 walk percentage and a 19.7% strikeout rate as his BABIP finished at .327.

Trade fits

All that being said, the Toronto Blue Jays stand out as a potential fit.

Detroit could look to combine their trade chips and move Ian Kinsler and Mahtook for a greater return from a Toronto team that will enter 2018 with an outfield mix of Kevin Pillar, Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Alford, Ezequiel Carrera and Steve Pearce.

The Jays also have a significant need at second base as well. The case could probably be made for Jose Iglesias in this situation as well, considering Toronto’s needs up the middle.

Seattle also has an outfield need with Dyson potentially departing. Mahtook would provide an upgrade over either Ben Gamel in left or Guillermo Heredia in center field.

There’s also San Francisco, a team that could use some youth in outfield that starts Denard Span and Hunter Pence on a regular basis.

Anaheim is a fit if Upton leaves town.

However at this point unless the Tigers can snag some combination of Jo Adell, Jahmai Jones and Griffin Canning, the team should probably look elsewhere after already acquiring prospects from a then-thin Anaheim farm system in past deals for Upton, Maybin and Jefry Marte.

Should the Detroit Tigers sell high on Mikie Mahtook?

Yes, but maybe down the road.

Executive vice president of baseball operations and general manager Al Avila and the rest of the front office should do everything they can to see if Mahtook can net a premium trade return this winter.

If they can’t get proverbial top dollar for him, the team can always keep the 27-year-old around and start him in the outfield along with Nicholas Castellanos.

At this point, the former third baseman is the team’s only other established option in the outfield.

What’s more, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Castellanos moved off the position if he continues to struggle in right field like he did down the stretch last season (-80.5 UZR/150, -7 DRS, -3.2 ARM in 173 innings).

Still, if the Tigers are going to struggle next season, it shouldn’t matter what the outfield grouping looks like so long as Gerber and Stewart are ready to be in the lineup at some point in the second half.

In this situation, moving Mahtook makes sense.

However, in a perfect world, Detroit would hang on to Mahtook for the first half of 2018, see him build on his play from this past season and then flip the outfielder to a team with a significant need for a prominent haul.

That way, the Detroit Tigers will have ready-made replacements in Gerber and Stewart while still adding pieces for the future.

It’s also possible that Detroit adds another young, Major League-ready outfielder in a trade this winter.

Next: The Tigers should make this trade with the Red Sox

Whether it be in a transaction for someone like Kinsler, Iglesias, Greene or Alex Wilson, acquiring another outfield solution would add another variable to the mix and make Mahtook conceivably more expendable.