Detroit Tigers: Predicting the 2018 bullpen

Shane Greene

Unless he is traded, Shane Greene will start the 2018 season as the Detroit Tigers closer.

Greene made the complete transition into the bullpen last season.

He was a starter for the Yankees in 2014-2015 before coming to the Tigers in the Robbie Ray trade. He made three starts for the Tigers last year, but appeared in 47 other games out of the pen.

Greene struggled in 2016, pitching to a 5.82 ERA. His 3.13 FIP indicated a ton of bad luck befell him that season.

Indeed he rebounded well in 2017, finishing the year with a tidy 2.66 ERA. His 9.7 K/9 was the highest of his career, although his 4.52 BB/9 was concerning.

Greene took over as the closer after the Tigers dealt Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to the Cubs in exchange for Jeimer Candelario.

In his 21.2 innings as the Tigers closer, Greene had a 2.49 ERA and struck out 23.

He also earned nine saves.

Greene has been talked about extensively as a trade candidate this offseason. We even projected a few trade options for Greene here.

He is under team control through 2020 however, so the Tigers are not in a major hurry to deal him.

Expect Greene to be the closer on opening day 2018 if he is not dealt this offseason. He is a candidate to be dealt at the trade deadline, assuming he has a strong start to the season.

Alex Wilson

The Tigers’ other trade candidate, Alex Wilson, finished his third season as a member of the bullpen last year.

Wilson initially came to the Tigers along with Yoenis Cespedes for Rick Porcello. He had tossed 28.1 innings of 1.91 ERA ball for the Red Sox the previous season.

He went on to post two phenomenal years in the Detroit pen. Despite limited strikeout numbers (he has a career 5.9 K/9) Wilson has good control and manages to limit baserunners.

Unfortunately, his luck ran out last year.

Wilson had his worst season in 2017, pitching to a 4.50 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. While his strikeout and walk ratios stayed virtually the same, he suffered from a significantly higher rate of hits and home runs surrendered.

At age 31, Wilson is under team control through the 2019 season. It seems like the Tigers will hold onto him this offseason, as his trade value is pretty low after his rough 2017.

However, if Wilson is able to return to the form he showed from 2015-2016 (when he had a 2.58 ERA and a 160 ERA+ across 143 innings) he is a prime candidate to be traded at the 2018 trade deadline.

Pencil Alex Wilson in as the primary set-up man for Shane Greene next season. He has more experience in the late innings than anyone else on the roster, and lines up just behind Greene in the pecking order for saves.

Daniel Stumpf

Daniel Stumpf came to the Tigers in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft. He was actually taken by the Phillies in the 2015 Rule 5 draft, but was returned to the Royals after just five innings in the big leagues.

He spent the rest of the season in the Royals minor league system before the Tigers snatched him up last year.

This time he did not get returned, as the Tigers squeezed 37.2 innings out of the left-hander across 55 games.

Stumpf looked solid in his first extended look in the big leagues. He finished with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and a nice 120 ERA+.

Stumpf had much better results against left-handed hitters last season, although his stats don’t exactly back that up. Left-handers hit .213/.324/.288 off Stumpf in 2017, compared to right-handers who hit .293/.348/.525.

However, Stumpf actually posted LOWER strikeout rates and HIGHER walk rates against left-handed hitters.

The biggest difference is the ground-ball rates. Left-handers hit the ball on the ground 47.9% of the time against Stumpf, compared to 38.7% for right-handers.

This unusual sequence is not ideal for Stumpf’s projections next season. If he is going to be used as a situational lefty going forward (which seems likely) than he will need to improve his strikeout and walk numbers against them going forward.

If he is unable to find success against left-handers next season, he could be used more in a middle relief role while the Tigers turn to the pitcher on our next slide to be their situational lefty.

Blaine Hardy

Blaine Hardy just finished his fourth season as a member of the Tigers bullpen. He, like Alex Wilson, saw a dramatic decrease in his performance last year.

Hardy was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in 2008, but was released by the organization in 2013. He signed with the Tigers and after another year in the minors he made his major league debut in 2014.

Between 2014 and 2016, Hardy tossed 126 innings with a 3.00 ERA and 134 ERA+.

His 7.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 weren’t anything special however, and his fortunes turned in 2017.

Hardy only threw 33.1 innings last season, and the results were ugly. He finished with a 5.94 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP and a 28/13 K/BB ratio.

Hardy was victimized by the long ball, surrendering seven on the season. That left him with a 1.9 HR/9, the highest of his career by a considerable margin.

Still, despite the struggles Hardy has remained an effective bullpen piece simply because of his ability to get left-handed hitters out. Lefty’s hit .259 off Hardy last season. He posted a 1.17 WHIP against left-handers compared to a 2.19 WHIP against right-handers.

Hardy should be given every opportunity to reprise his role as a situational lefty in the Tigers bullpen in 2018.

Entering his age 31-season, Hardy is controlled by the Tigers through 2021. If he has a successful season, the Tigers could look to dump him in a deadline deal to a contender.

If healthy, Hardy will be a big piece of the Tigers bullpen next season. It would be wise for new manager Ron Gardenhire to limit him against right-handers as much as possible.

If that can be accomplished, Hardy should rebound from his ugly 2017 and find his groove again next year.

Warwick Saupold

The only Tigers reliever to throw more innings that Warwick Saupold last season was Shane Greene.

Saupold served primarily as a long man out of the bullpen, often being asked to throw multiple innings at a time when a starter struggled.

Long relievers are typically used when the team needs someone to chew up innings, and Saupold was able to do just that.

The results weren’t pretty, but pitchers who can come in and bridge the gap to the rest of the bullpen are valuable.

Saupold threw 62.2 innings last season. He finished with a 4.88 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, 44 strikeouts and 31 walks.

His 6.32% strikeout-rate and 4.45% walk-rate will need to improve for him to ever have success in the show.

Saupold, like Hardy, also struggled with the long ball in 2017. Saupold gave up nine home runs last year, good for a 1.3 HR/9. He will need to do a better job of forcing hitters to hit the ball on the ground next season.

The Australian’s 43.1% ground-ball rate is below the league average, and his 36.1% fly ball rate is too high.

Despite his struggles, there is likely a place in the Detroit bullpen for the 27-year-old next year.

However, he is unlikely to hold down a high-leverage role, and should the Tigers make any more moves or choose to recall someone who is doing well at Triple-A, Saupold is likely the first to go.

Joe Jimenez

Joe Jimenez has been dubbed the closer of the future ever since he signed with the Detroit Tigers back in 2013.

The highly-touted flamethrower finally made his big league debut last season, and the results weren’t pretty.

Across 19 innings Jimenez surrendered a staggering 26 earned runs. He walked nine, struck out 17 and gave up 31 hits, including four home runs.

It is worth pointing out that he posted a stellar 1.44 ERA in 25 innings at Triple-A Toledo.

19 innings is obviously a very small sample size, and a lot of Jimenez’s ugly stats were because of that. His strand rate was a paltry 38.5%, where the league average is around 70%. Likewise opposing hitters hit .403 on balls in play, about 100 points higher than average.

Still, Jimenez will need to walk less hitters and induce more ground balls if he wants to ever inherit the closing role in Detroit.

Concerns about Jimenez’s weight cropped up last season and into the offseason, but those have been quelled.

“He was at a point where we actually were concerned,” Tigers general manager Al Avila said of Jimenez’s conditioning. “We’d tell him ‘Hey listen, if you’re going to continue to progress and get better as a baseball player you’ve gotta make sure that you watch your weight.’ We put him on a program and he’s followed it to a T. He’s been in Lakeland. He chose to stay there and do strength and conditioning, nutrition, the whole thing.”

Jimenez averaged a blistering 95.5 miles per hour on his fastball last season (per FanGraphs) and will continue to bring the heat. As long as he can control his fastball and his secondary pitches, he will start to find some success in the show.

He is a ways away from being the closer in Detroit, but at age 22 he still has plenty of time to develop into the ninth inning stopper that fans have been envisioning for years.

The Detroit Tigers currently have six starting pitchers fighting for five rotation spots.

Michael Fulmer is a lock to make the rotation.

Jordan Zimmermann, despite his struggles, seems like a lock as well.

Daniel Norris is someone the Tigers are highly invested in, so as long as he is healthy he will be in the rotation.

Mike Fiers was signed primarily because of his durability, having thrown over 150 innings three seasons in a row. It would seem silly to move him to the bullpen.

That leaves left-hander Matt Boyd and the recently signed Ryan Carpenter to battle it out for the last starting spot in the rotation.

It is conceivable that whomever does not win the rotation spot will pitch out of the bullpen in 2018.

Boyd or Carpenter?

Matt Boyd is out of options heading into the 2018 season. If he does not beat out Ryan Carpenter (or anyone else for that matter) for a spot in the rotation, the Tigers will either have to expose him to waivers or bring him out of the bullpen.

The Tigers have shown a willingness to bring starters out of the bullpen in the past.

In the last two years, both Mike Pelfrey and Anibal Sanchez were used out of the pen.

Boyd made 25 starts for the Tigers last season, pitching to a 5.27 ERA. He likely has the upper hand, at least for now, on the unproven Carpenter.

Carpenter is older than Boyd and has yet to make the Major Leagues.

However, if Carpenter outpitches Boyd in spring training there is a chance the Tigers will give him the rotation spot. If he does not, he will likely start the year out in Triple-A and serve as depth should any of Detroit’s starters get injured.

Ultimately, if Matt Boyd wins the spot outright then Carpenter will be sent to Triple-A, freeing up another bullpen spot. If Carpenter wins the spot, Boyd could find himself in the bullpen next season.

There are a lot of names that could compete for the final spot in the Tigers bullpen.

First, the Tigers could add a veteran free agent to compete for a spot. We even highlighted a few options a month ago.

If the Tigers choose to stay in-house with their final bullpen spot, here are the likeliest candidates:

Victor Alcantara – Alcantara was acquired for Cameron Maybin last offseason. He went from Double-A to Triple-A and got a small cup of coffee with the Tigers at the end of the year. His numbers in the minors were solid, but his walk numbers are scary. He needs more time in the minors to work on his control.

Phillippe Aumont – Aumont was the 11th overall pick by the Seattle Mariners back in the 2007 draft. The 28-year-old struggled in his brief taste of the major leagues, but saw some success in Canada last year as a starter. The Tigers could certainly convert him back into a reliever and see if he can find some success. His 6.80 career ERA across 43.2 big league innings does not inspire much hope, however.

Chad Bell – Bell threw 62.1 innings for the Tigers last year, which on paper makes him look like a lock for a spot in 2018. However, his 6.93 ERA and 1.97 WHIP make his spot much more murky. Bell did see more success as a reliever than a starter however, so the left-hander certainly has a chance to steal a spot in the bullpen. Though with fellow left-handers Daniel Stumpf and Blaine Hardy already in, he will likely either be in Triple-A or released from the organization.

Enrique Burgos – We profiled Burgos here, but the 27-year-old right-hander saw time in the big leagues in 2016 with Arizona. He struck out 82 batters in 68.1 innings and could force his way into the Tigers bullpen in 2018.

Kevin Comer – Comer has been in the Houston farm system since 2012. The 25-year-old finally reached Triple-A last season, posting a 3.68 ERA and a 10.5 K/9 in 63.2 innings. His 4.0 BB/9 and 1.51 WHIP are concerning, but if Comer pitches well in the Spring he could win the job outright. If he does not, look for him to get a chance during the season.

Jairo Labourt – Labourt absolutely dominated in High-A and Double-A last season. However, he walked 23 in 22 innings at Triple-A Toledo before pitching six innings for the Tigers. He walked seven and struck out four. Labourt needs more time in the minors before he is ready for a big league role, but his big frame and powerful arm will be a part of the Tigers bullpen in the future.

Mark Montgomery – Montgomery was a Yankees farmhand for the longest time before the Cardinals acquired him prior to the 2017 season. Montgomery dominated in Triple-A Memphis last year. He posted a 5-1 record, a 2.43 ERA and a very nice 73/15 K/BB ratio. If he continues to pitch like that, he will be in the major leagues in no time.

Drew VerHagen – VerHagen made 19 starts at Triple-A Toledo last season and two more with the Tigers. He also made 22 appearances out of the bullpen, so it is unclear exactly what the Tigers are planning to do with the 27-year-old out of Vanderbilt. Regardless, his results have not been great (5.77 ERA) so there is a good chance he starts the season out in the minors again.

Next: Tigers should trade Shane Greene for a 2B

There is still a lot of offseason left, so there is a chance one (or more) of these pieces change before the season starts.

As it stands now, this is a snapshot of the Tigers bullpen heading into the rebuilding 2018 season.