Detroit Tigers: A look at the 2018 outfield

Mikie Mahtook

The Tigers acquired Mahtook in a late January trade last season. He was brought in to compete for a bench role with Tyler Collins.

Mahtook started off slow, hitting just .179 in May. Then, his performance (and his playing time) saw a dramatic increase. The former first-round pick hit .333 in June and .346 in July, cementing himself as the teams starting center fielder and No. 2 hitter behind Ian Kinsler.

Mahtook finished the season with a .276/.330/.457 slash line. He hit 12 home runs and stole six bases while posting a 107 wRC+ and a 1.6 WAR.

His 6.1% walk rate and 20.8% strikeout rate where the best marks of his career. The 27-year-old seems to have hit his stride in the big leagues after struggling out of the gate.

Mahtook is penciled in as the starting left fielder heading into 2018. He played primarily center field last season, but his fielding was sub-par (-2.6 UZR) and the addition of free agent Leonys Martin has pushed him to the corner.

Mahtook should get every opportunity to lock down a starting role for the season. His increased walk rate, decreased strikeout rate and higher rate of line drives and ground balls all bode well for another successful season.

Part of Mahtook’s success came from a very high percentage of infield hits, something that he has always shown a knack for in the major leagues. His 14.4% infield hit rate last year was one of the best in the league. His ground ball rate went from 38.1% in 2016 to 46.3% last year. As long as he continues to leg out ground balls his BABIP will stay in last year’s .324 range, which will keep his average in the .270’s.

If he stays healthy Mahtook should be able to post 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases, while hitting around .270. That, coupled with his above average defense in left field, should make him a 2-3 WAR player for Detroit in 2018.

Next up is one of the Tigers few Major League additions this offseason:

Leonys Martin

The Detroit Tigers have long loved speedy, defense-first center fielders. From Curtis Granderson to Austin Jackson to Cameron Maybin, Detroit has always wanted someone who can man the spacious confines of Comerica Park.

After a season spent carouseling Jacoby Jones, Tyler Collins and Mikie Mahtook through center field, the Tigers decided to go to the free agent market to find their next strong defensive center fielder.

They ended up signing former Rangers, Mariners and Cubs center fielder Leonys Martin to a one-year, $1.75MM contract earlier in the offseason.

Martin is expected to be the primary center fielder for the Tigers in 2018.

Defensively, Martin gives the Tigers an experienced center fielder who has posted consistently excellent fielding numbers throughout his career.

Across four full-time seasons from 2013-2016, Martin posted UZR totals of 10.3, 11.3, 8.5 and 3.6 as a center fielder. His 0.1 score last year was in across 155 innings. The Cubs played him more in right field (where he posted a 2.4 UZR).

Martin’s value comes from his glove, but the Tigers will hope he can show more at the plate in 2018.

In 128 at-bats last season, Martin slashed an ugly .172/.232/.281. He posted the lowest rate of line drives and the highest rate of fly balls in his career, which led to a very low .207 BABIP.

If Martin can get back to hitting the ball on the ground and using his speed to get on base, his batting average will improve. His 23.9% strikeout rate was actually lower than his 2016 season, when he hit 15 home runs, stole 24 bases and hit .247.

Expecting Martin to be an above average hitter is a tall order. However, if Martin can provide elite defense and can collect a handful of home runs and steals, he will find his way into the lineup.

Lastly, his veteran presence is critical for a team that is rebuilding. Young guys like Jacoby Jones and Victor Reyes can from him as they adjust to the show.

Next up is one of the Tigers longest tenured players, even though he is only 25 years old.

Nicholas Castellanos

While many fans will remember 2017 as the season the Tigers traded away their hopes of contending for the rest of the decade, a very productive season at the plate by Nick Castellanos slipped under the radar.

Castellanos’ raw stats last season were very impressive. He hit 36 doubles, 10 triples, and 26 home runs. His 72 extra base hits was sixth in the American League, tied with Khris Davis of the A’s.

He also had 101 RBI (9th) and 301 total bases (10th).

Castellanos led the American League in triples. He had only hit 14 triples across the last three seasons before hitting 10 last year.

Digging deeper into the stats, it appears that Castellanos may have only scratched the surface of what is to come.

His 6.2% walk-rate is right in line with his career norms. However, his 21.4% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, an encouraging sign for the 25-year-old.

Much was made about Castellanos’ hard-hit percentage last season, and for good reason. Castellanos finished the season with a hard-hit rate of 43.4%, the fifth highest in the major leagues among qualified hitters.

The five ahead of him were Joey Gallo, Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Judge and Corey Seager.

Additionally, Statcast credited Castellanos with the 10th most barreled-balls in the league.

Basically, Castellanos absolutely stung the ball last season. His results showed a lot of success, but he suffered some bad luck that kept his numbers from being truly elite. His .313 BABIP was a career-low, helping depress his batting average to .272. It is pretty rare to see a player post the hardest hit rates of his career (and some of the best in the league) and see his BABIP go down.

There’s not a distinct explanation for this, other than Castellanos must have not followed the old baseball adage of “hit em where they ain’t”.

Regardless, if Castellanos can barrel up baseballs and make hard contact like he did last year again in 2018, we could be looking at an All-Star caliber hitter at just 25 years old.

Defense

Hitting has never been an issue for Castellanos in the major leagues.

Defense, however, has been a challenge.

The Tigers have struggled to find a spot for Castellanos dating back to his days in the minor leagues. He originally came up as a third baseman, but the Tigers shifted him to left field after moving Miguel Cabrera to third to accommodate Prince Fielder. Once the Tigers moved on from Fielder and shifted Miggy back to first base, they moved Castellanos back to third and promoted him. He understandably struggled defensively, and never really found his groove.

He stayed at third for the majority of the 2017 season, despite his poor defense.

Then, the Tigers traded closer Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila in late-July to the Cubs for their third baseman of the future, Jeimer Candelario.

This prompted another move for Castellanos, this time across the diamond to right field. He posted a ridiculously bad -5.3 UZR in 173 innings.

It is unfair to judge Castellanos on only 173 innings of work, especially when he had no previous experience in right field. However, there is no doubt that he will need to make dramatic improvements defensively if he wants to stick in the outfield long term.

With Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera occupying the 1B/DH spots for 2018, Castellanos will need to stick in the outfield at least through 2018. If he does not prove he can handle the outfield, he could move to 1B full-time starting in 2019 while Cabrera shifts to DH.

Of course, the Tigers may not have that opportunity as Castellanos reportedly turned down a contract extension at the start of the offseason. With only two years left before he becomes a free agent, Castellanos could be on his way out in Detroit.

Next is up a bench bat who has a guaranteed spot on the 25-man roster, as long as the Tigers want to keep him:

Victor Reyes

The Detroit Tigers used the Rule 5 draft for the second year in a row to acquire a potential future contributor.

The Tigers surprised many by using the first pick to select former Arizona farmhand Victor Reyes.

Reyes, 23, had a very strong season at Double-A last year. In 479 at-bats he hit .292 with 18 stolen bases and a 110 wRC+.

In 2016, he hit .303 with 20 stolen bases at High-A.

Reyes is a switch-hitter with speed. His power has not developed yet, but his high-contact approach could actually be a bonus in spacious Comerica Park, where his speed could turn a lot of singles into doubles.

Additionally, he has the potential to be a solid defensive outfielder, possibly even in center field.

At 23 years old, the Tigers must have felt that Reyes is ready to compete at the big league level. Reyes will likely be a fourth or even fifth outfielder in 2018. He can serve as a pinch-runner when necessary and will probably draw one or so starts per week, just to get a feel for the game at the highest level.

For a rebuilding team, using the Rule 5 draft to acquire young talent for the future is a necessary part of the process. While Reyes may not be ready for the major leagues just yet, keeping him at the show will allow the Tigers to retain his contract for five more seasons, a huge bonus for a rebuilding team trying to cut costs.

Next is a list of players in Detroit’s system that could find their way into the outfield either on opening day or at some point later in the season:

Detroit has historically carried five outfielders on their roster. That will likely be the case again in 2018. Mahtook, Martin, Castellanos and Reyes each have roster spots.

It is entirely possible that the final spot will be filled by a minor league free agent, similar to Alex Presley last year. If not, there will be an internal competition for that final spot.

Below are a few internal options who could compete for that spot. Regardless, all of them will likely be in the major leagues at some point next season.

JaCoby Jones

Considering that Jones saw 141 at-bats with the Tigers last year, including being in the opening day starting lineup, he seems to have the upper hand on a 25-man roster spot.

However, his immense struggles down the stretch may lead him to start the season out at Triple-A. Jones hit .170/.240/.270 for the Tigers with three home runs and six stolen bases. His 42.2% strikeout rate was one of the highest in the league. That will need to come down for him to ever have success in the major leagues.

Jones could benefit from more time in the minor leagues. He’s had 643 at-bats at Triple-A, and only 223 at Double-A.

While his Double-A numbers are strong, his Triple-A slash line of .244/.312/.373 leaves quite a bit to be desired. Jones hit .245 with nine home runs and 12 stolen bases at Triple-A last year after getting demoted. He struck out in 26.5% of his at-bats.

Ultimately, Jones will be in the major leagues at some point next season. But until he learns to limit his strikeouts, his tantalizing power-speed combination is best left at Triple-A.

Mike Gerber

The Tigers selected Mike Gerber in the 15th round in 2014. He has mashed at every level since then, earning himself a brief cameo at Triple-A last year. If he continues to hit the Tigers will likely give him a chance to perform in the big leagues. He was added to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft, a good indication that the Tigers are invested in his future.

The right fielder slashed .291/.363/.477 with 13 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 350 at-bats at Double-A last season. He posted a 131 wRC+. He then went 7-for-17 in four games at Triple-A.

Gerber swings from the left side and has had trouble hitting left-handed pitchers in the minors. That could make him more of a platoon bat in the major leagues.

His defense is rated well in right field, so if nothing else he has a chance to make the major leagues as a defensive replacement for Castellanos, especially against right-handed pitchers.

Gerber is unlikely to start the 2018 season on the Tigers. However, a strong first half in Toledo will almost certainly lead to a call-up during the year.

Christin Stewart

Christin Stewart mashed last season. Long considered one of the Tigers top hitting prospects, Stewart showed everyone why last year at Double-A Erie.

Stewart blasted 28 home runs and drove in 86. He hit .256/.335/.501 with a 126 wRC+.

Stewart hit 30 home runs between High-A and Double-A in 2016, so the power is very real.

Similar to Gerber, Stewart does not have enough experience at Triple-A (in this case none) to make the jump straight to the major leagues on opening day. However, he is a near-lock to open the season as a starter at Triple-A. If he hits well it may not be long before he is wearing the old English D.

Stewart’s one huge flaw is his defense. He started 123 games in left field last season, so the Tigers appear to be holding out hope that he can stick out there. However, with Castellanos already in the mix it may be tough for the Tigers to stomach both him and Stewart in the outfield at the same time.

Should anything happen to Victor Martinez, Stewart is a candidate to be recalled and penciled in at DH. Fans can hope that the 24-year-old will find his way defensively, as his power appears to be big league ready.

Next: Predicting the 2018 Bullpen

Losing Justin Upton and J.D Martinez will no doubt hurt the Tigers production in the outfield. However, there is a lot to look forward to with this young crew.

Rebuilding always takes time, but watching players like JaCoby Jones and Christin Stewart grow into stars is worth the wait. Soon they will be joined by Daz Cameron to form another strong outfield for the Tigers to contend with in 2020 and beyond.