Detroit Tigers: Previewing the 2018 lineup

The 2018 Detroit Tigers lineup will look incredibly different from years past. It is filled with younger players and grizzled vets.

The Detroit Tigers will look different when they step to the plate in 2018. No more Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, or JD Martinez. All three were traded over the past year and a half, as part of the rebuild.

The Tigers new manager Ron Gardenhire believes this team can compete. He’s no stranger to rebuild, after helping the Minnesota Twins develop players like Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, and Justin Morneau. He mixes old-school strategy with new-school analytics, and is the right man to lead the Tigers through this season.

In order to succeed, a lot of things will need to come together. Almost everyone on the list will need to have a rebound year, or improve from last season.

The lineup is younger than year’s past. While they’ve had experience playing at the major league level, it will be the first time that many of these players play a full season.

2018 is a transition year. Many prospects are in the minors, and may get called up as the season progresses. But the bulk of the lineup is comprised of substitute players, and young players hoping to have a rebound year.

Despite this, there will be a few returning faces to the lineup. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez will get the nod on Opening Day, but the entire outfield, and a significant part of the infield are all young players, without much starting experience.

This is also a very. very early look at the lineup. Any number of things can happen in Lakeland during Spring Training. Some players could perform better, or worse than expected.

Here’s a look at the projected 2018 lineup:

Leading off: Shortstop Jose Iglesias

The past couple seasons, the leadoff spot has been filled with Ian Kinsler. His trade to the Angels left a void that should be filled by Jose Iglesias.

Iglesias has been a mainstay in the Tigers lineup since he came from Boston in 2013. Since then, Iglesias has been a consistently good fielder, and a respectable bat. While known for flashing the leather, Iglesias is a contact hitter that isn’t afraid to steal the occasional bag.

The projections have him hitting .266/.314/.688, with seven home runs and 44 RBI. While the numbers may not jump off the page, he’ll likely lead the team in steals.

While there are others with higher OBPs and batting averages, Jose Iglesias does have an advantage: speed.

Iglesias is quick enough to score from second on a bloop single. He can touch home on a short SAC Fly. He’s the run manufacturer needed at the top of the order.

He’s inexperienced at the leadoff spot. Iglesias has started five games in the leadoff slot, though is familiar with the top of the order. He’s batted second in 47 games over his career. And when batting ahead of Cabrera, he’s hit .276, and has reached base 30.8 percent of the time.

The 28-year-old is reaching the prime of his career. He’s ready to take over the void left by Ian Kinsler.

Batting Second: Third Baseman Jeimer Candelario

Since coming over from Chicago, third baseman Jeimer Candelario has been outstanding for the Detroit Tigers. He hit .330 with seven doubles in 27 games for Detroit, and will more than likely be the starting third-baseman for Ron Gardenhire on Opening Day.

Candelario’s projected stat line is .269/.346/.779, with eight home runs and 32 RBIs, and has excelled batting second. Candelario hit .385 with production last year behind the leadoff hitter, and the 23 year-old will succeed in his first full season in the majors.

He’ll hit higher in the order. While Miguel Cabrera is on the decline, the first-baseman still demands respect, and Candelario will benefit from it. Pitchers don’t want to send Cabrera to the plate with runners on. Because of this, the third-baseman will receive good pitches, and will hit a lot higher than .269. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he hit .300 or better in April.

Since baseball’s a long and grueling season, Candelario’s numbers may decline as the year wears on. But he’s the third-baseman of the future.

The main question for this year is if the sophomore slump will greatly affect the New York native. He’s played enough that teams have scouting data on him. He’ll need to adjust accordingly. He has help, though. Ron Gardenhire is known for motivating young players, and Lloyd McClendon is an experienced hitting coach.

Batting Third: First-baseman Miguel Cabrera

Last year was a down-year for the 2012 Triple-Crown winner. But Miguel Cabrera, and the Detroit Tigers are hoping for a resurgence. The lineup feels different when he’s hot. Everyone seems to perform better when he’s raking.

Cabrera dropped off BIG TIME last year. He went from .316/.393/.956 with 38 home runs to .249/.329/.728 with 16 long balls. That’s unlike anything we’ve ever seen from the two-time MVP.

While players regress as they age, Cabrera’s 34. Losing over 50 points off his batting average isn’t normal. Cutting home run numbers in half is ridiculous. He’s regressing, but is bound to have a couple good years left, at least.

Baseball-reference agrees. They have him hitting .284/.367/.482, with 22 home runs and 72 RBIs. It’s a slight uptick from last year. While it may not be the production Tigers fans are used to, it’s better than having him perform at a replaceable level.

The elite years are behind him. He won’t He won’t hit .330 with 30+ long balls anymore. But Cabrera will still produce. He may have a .300 with 25 home run season.

Then again, perhaps the projections are realistic. Cabrera is more human, and isn’t as scary as years past. He doesn’t have a young Victor Martinez behind him. Teams may opt to walk him instead of pitching to him.

If Martinez leaves the team, Cabrera will shift to DH. The Tigers need his bat, and don’t want him to get injured in the field, if possible.

Batting Fourth: Right-Fielder Nicholas Castellanos

The normal choice for the cleanup hitter was Victor Martinez. That was, until digging deeper. Martinez is near the end of his career, and won’t be a member of the lineup in the near future. Nicholas Castellanos deserves to jump ahead of him on Opening Day.

The 26-year old was a massive run producer last year. He doubled his home run total. He had 43-more RBIs. It’s hard to argue against putting him behind Cabrera. When Martinez went down, Castellanos started 25 games hitting fourth, and dominated. He hit .378/.413/1.056 batting fourth, and had five home runs with 18 RBIs. Overall, he hit .272/.320/.811 with 26 home runs and 101 RBIs.

That’s not bad. he’s starting to look more like a power-hitter.

He’ll have similar production as last year. He’s projected to hit .273/.326/.805, with 22 home runs, and 81. Castellanos is projected to be second in OPS in the lineup. He’s projected to lead the team in RBIs. It’s a position normally held by Miguel Cabrera.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if he hits .300 for the first time in his career. Castellanos is a veteran, and only 25 years-old. He’ll be crucial to the rebuild process, and should be one of the players the Tigers build around.

Castellanos is also at a different position. He’ll make the shift from third to right field. Castellanos hasn’t been the best third baseman, and his move makes sense. Right field isn’t as difficult to play as third. Castellanos can focus more on hitting than fielding.

Another thing to consider is that Castellanos hasn’t hit his prime yet. As I said before, he’s 26. He’s been in the league for five years. He’s experienced, and should have a breakout year in 2018.

Batting 6th: Left Fielder Mikie Mahtook

To many Detroit Tigers fans, Mikie Mahtook was a pleasant surprise at times. He started off cold, hitting well under the Mendoza line for the first two months of 2017. Then, he turned it on in June. The 27 year-old hit .333, with an OPS of .863. Then, he hit .346 and .961 in July. And finally, he hit a human .276 and .771 in September/October.

Mahtook finished 2017 with a stat line of .276/.330/.457 with 12 home runs and 38 RBIs. It was more like the player the Tigers hoped to acquire from Tampa Bay.

Personally, I disagree with the projected stats from Baseball-Reference. They have him hitting .255/.312/.741 with 14 home runs and 42 RBIs.

That’s low-balling him. Mahtook hit .295 his first year with Tampa Bay. He dropped to .195 in his sophomore season. As last season showed, his 2016 was a sophomore slump.

Hitting .280/.330/.800 is more realistic. It won’t be consistent, as Mahtook has been a streaky hitter. He’ll hit .330 at times. And .200 at others. The Tigers will hope that his .330 stretches are longer and more frequent than his at .200.

Mahtook will see a lot of finesse pitches, as he’s past the meat of the order. James McCann provides a slight level of protection to Mahtook.

Mahtook is also a base-stealing threat. He’s slated to steal six bags this year. He has a little speed, mostly from catching line-drives in left.

Batting Seventh: Catcher James McCann

The Detroit Tigers catcher is known more for defense than hitting. He’s not bad at either. And while his OPS is in the bottom three for the team, he’s still better than the final two in the order.

James McCann makes sense batting seventh. He had the bulk of starts at this position in the order. And had his best production there. McCann hit .307 with power in 44 games batting seventh, and there’s no reason he can’t do the same this year.

it’s better than what he did overall last season. With all batting spots included, McCann hit .253/.318/.733. He was significantly better in the second half in 2017, increasing his batting average 90 points, and his OPS 61.

This season, McCann is projected to drop off slightly. He’s projected to hit .249/.305/.703.

McCann will likely hit better than this. Like Mikie Mahtook, McCann can be inconsistent at the plate. He went from hitting .161 in May 2017 to .396. He finished the season hitting over ten RBIs per month in July and August.

Also like Mahtook, his final line will depend on longer, and more frequent hot streaks.

Behind the plate, however, McCann is more consistent.

He’s a defensive catcher. He only committed two errors in 836.1 innings at catcher, and caught 30 percent of stolen base attempts.

Though McCann is the best catcher on the team, he won’t play every day. Catching is the toughest position. John Hicks will get the occasional start.

Batting Eighth: Second Baseman Dixon Machado

Ian Kinsler won’t play second for the Tigers this season. His replacement will likely be Dixon Machado, a former prospect / minor-league hand that will enter his first season playing every day.

Dixon Machado wasn’t too bad at the plate in 2017. He hit what you’d expect a middle infielder to. His stat line was .259/.302/.621, with one home run and 11 RBIs in 181 plate appearances.

This year, Machado is projected to hit .257/.322/.697. It’s slightly better than last season. Machado is still young, at 26 years old, and is yet to reach the peak of his career. He’s likely to have a better performance in 2018.

The reason: more experience at the major-league level. While he had a significant time in Detroit, he went down to the minors a decent amount last season. Minor league pitching is different than the big leagues. Sometimes, it could take time to get used to the major leagues.

Another reason: Machado performed better at the plate, while playing second. In 19 games at second, Machado hit .294/.351/.743.

It’ll be interesting to see if those numbers can be repeated consistently in 2018. They more than likely won’t, because 19 games is still a small sample size.

Defensively, Machado wasn’t bad at 2nd. In 118.1 innings, the Venezuelan turned 12 double-plays, and had 51 assists and 23 putouts. Machado only committed two errors at second.

Conceivably, though, Machado and Iglesias could be switched. Middle-infield positions are similar. The places in the batting order, however, will likely remain the same, unless something drastic happens.

Batting Ninth: Center-Fielder JaCoby Jones

Called a “Quality” prospect, JaCoby Jones was originally acquired via trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates for Joakim Soria. Jones was originally a shortstop, but converted to Center Field. He’s a quick fielder. Jones played 363.2 innings at center in 2017, making 132 putouts, and only one error.

He was hit in the face with an 89-mph fastball April 22th. He went on the disabled list for a short time. When he returned, it took a while before he began to rebound. A short time in Toledo later, he was recalled, and had his best month in August. Jones hit .235/.381/.616 in 21 plate appearances. He declined again in September.

It’s unsure if he’ll rebound in 2018. Baseball-reference has him hitting .225/.294/.665 this season.

Jones is inexperienced at the major-league level. Like Dixon Machado, he’ll have to get used to the better pitching. Jones has had success at the minor-league level, hitting .264 with limited power and a respectable OPS. Perhaps he is still adapting to the majors.

Time will tell if that’s the case. If it’s not, the Detroit Tigers have a few prospects waiting in the wings, almost ready to be called up to the majors, including Michael Gerber. There’s also Leonys Martin, whom the Tigers acquired in the offseason.

Martin will more than likely make the club, but he isn’t the future of the Tigers. He’s 29. Martin will be 30 before the season begins. While he has been in the league for seven years, Jones is who the Tigers want patrolling Center. If Jones doesn’t produce, Martin will take over.

Next: A look at the 2018 Outfield

The Tigers will likely alter their lineup throughout the 2018 season. Expect to see Leonys Martin, John Hicks and Rule 5 selection Victor Reyes in the starting lineup on occasion. Still, this provides a good luck at who Tiger fans can expect to see at the ballpark on a regular basis.