Detroit Tigers: Prospects entering make-or-break seasons

The Detroit Tigers have a handful of prospects who are entering their pinnacle season in 2018. A step forward could lead them to the big leagues, but a step backward could end their career.

The Detroit Tigers have made no secret about their intention to rebuild over the next few years, aiming for a contention window closer to 2020. The time in between will be used to acquire and develop prospects who can help the team grow into a World Series contender. In the meantime, the team will rely on a few veterans and a handful of average big leaguers to pass the time until the team can contend again.

This is good news for many of the Detroit’s older prospects, who now have a better chance of seeing themselves in a big league uniform. Without players like Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez and Justin Verlander taking up roster space, minor league veterans like Dixon Machado and JaCoby Jones will get a chance to strut their stuff at the big league level.

The Tigers have a select group of older prospects who will enter 2018 on an unspoken “make it or break it” contract for the year. These are prospects who have been in Detroit’s system for a handful of years, yet have not progressed as many expected them to. If these prospects do not show significant strides in the next year, they will likely be booted from the organization, replaced by higher profile prospects who have a better chance of helping the team win in a few years.

However, these prospects also have a great chance to crack the big league roster if they are able to make big strides forward. This is an incredibly important year for these four prospects. Let’s take a look at their current situation and see how we think they will fare in 2018.

Derek Hill

At just 22 years old, Derek Hill still has time on his side. Hill’s calling card has always been his elite defense in center field. While the Tigers have been waiting for him to hit, he always had a safety net that he’d still make the big leagues because of his defense.

However, the arrival of uber prospect Daz Cameron – along with the growth of JaCoby Jones as a defensive centerfielder, have taken away Hill’s safety net. A good defensive center fielder who cannot hit no longer has appeal in Detroit’s sytem. If Hill can’t get things going with the stick, he will be passed up on the depth chart and may lose his chance to wear the Old English D.

Hill was drafted out of High School by the Tigers in the first round of the 2014 MLB draft. A series of injuries has held Hill back, and despite being in the system for four years he has only seen 31 at-bats at High-A.

In 991 career at-bats, Hill has slashed .245/.316/.339. He only has five career home runs, but has swiped 100 bases on 120 attempts. Hill played in 93 games in 2016, hitting .266 with a .312 OBP and 35 stolen bases. He was injured for most of 2017, only earning 224 at-bats across three levels. He slashed .285/.367/.444 in 144 at-bats with Single-A, before getting a brief promotion to High-A, where he went 6-for-31.

The Hill he needs to climb

Hill will likely start out in High-A ball next season. If he stays healthy and is able to get on-base with more consistency, he could easily progress quickly through the minor leagues. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him reach Triple-A with a good, healthy season. A September call-up is ambitious, but possible for the right-hander.

However, another season of Hill floundering at the plate would really set him back. The Tigers likely aren’t ready to completely abandon their 2014 first-rounder altogether, but it will become harder and harder to justify a spot on the 40-man if Hill can’t get it together. Especially with Cameron, Jones and Victor Reyes all capable of playing center field, Hill’s days may be numbered.

Grayson Greiner

There are a lot of similarities between Grayson Greiner and Derek Hill. Both were drafted in 2014, both boast good defense but have struggled to hit in the minors, and both saw their security blanket ripped away from them in the Justin Verlander trade.

While Daz Cameron represents the threat to Hill, Greiner is on the hot seat thanks to Jake Rogers. Rogers was recently named to the Minor League All-Defensive team, and has been labeled the best defensive catcher in the minors.

The 25-year-old Greiner has had short bursts of offensive success, surrounded by lengthy lapses that have held him up.

After getting drafted in June of 2014, Greiner spent the rest of the season dominating Single-A. He hit .322 with a .394 on-base percentage. That led to him starting out in High-A ball in 2015. He spent the entire season at that level, slashing an ugly .183/.254/.250 with just three home runs in 312 at-bats.

Greiner’s strongest season to date was in 2016. The right-hander hit .293 with seven home runs across three levels, mostly spent in Double-A. Greiner went backward again in 2017, hitting only .237, although he did blast a career-high 14 home runs.

Falling down the depth chart

The power is a nice bonus, but at 25 years of age and with only 18 career at-bats at Triple-A, Greiner’s clock is definitely ticking. Indeed the Tigers clearly do not think Greiner is ready for the show, bringing in veteran’s Brayan Pena and Derek Norris to compete with John Hicks to back up starter James McCann. Both Pena and Norris could start out in Triple-A, effectively blocking Greiner at that level.

More than likely, one of Pena or Norris will get released and Greiner will get his chance in Toledo. However, there’s little reason to expect the Tigers to invest in him if he doesn’t have a strong season next year. With Rogers waiting in the wings, Greiner will have to really sting the ball next season if he wants to make the big leagues in Detroit.

Spencer Turnbull

Perhaps no prospect on this list is in greater danger of losing their roster spot than 25-year-old right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Turnbull was originally selected by the Tigers in the second round of the 2014 draft, right in between Derek Hill and Grayson Greiner.

Turnbull struggled to finish out 2014 but was much stronger in 2015 with Single-A West Michigan. He went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 116.2 innings. That got him noticed, and he was considered a rising star in Detroit’s farm system.

A preseason injury held Turnbull out until June of 2016, when he debuted with the Tigers rookie league affiliate. He posted pedestrian numbers at that level before finishing off the season in High-A with a 3.00 ERA across six starts.

Turnbull made 15 starts at High-A in 2017. His 3.05 ERA and 1.12 WHIP were very solid, but he posted a pedestrian 7.0 K/9. He made his Double-A debut late in the season and was lit up across four starts. He had a 6.20 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, but did post 22 strikeouts in 20.1 innings.

At this point, Turnbull is a 25-year-old college right-hander who has barely sniffed Double-A. Like Greiner and Hill, Turnbull has seen his stock plummet with the recent additions of right-handed prospects. Franklin Perez and Alex Faedo join Matt Manning, Beau Burrows and Kyle Funkhouser as right-handed pitching prospects who project to make the big league rotation in the next few years. With Michael Fulmer already in the fold, space in Detroit’s future rotation is rapidly filling up. He has consistently posted solid strikeout numbers however, so a future in the bullpen may be in the cards.

Bullpen?

Turnbull’s scouting grades include a 60-grade fastball and a 55-grade slider, with below average marks for his curveball and changeup. That profile screams relief pitcher, where Turnbull can rely on a two-pitch arsenal to succeed.

If Turnbull isn’t able to make the jump forward in 2018, it would be wise for the Tigers to embrace his future as a reliever. Space is limited in the rotation, and the Tigers could recoup some of his value if he is able to turn into a quality late-inning reliever. It’s worth the risk, as Turnbull is rapidly looking like an afterthought in a farm system littered with right-handers.