What should the Detroit Tigers expect from the No. 1 pick?

The Detroit Tigers have the number one overall pick in next month’s MLB Draft. Does recent history suggest the Tigers will get the franchise player they are looking for?

Ever since the 2017 MLB season ended, Detroit Tigers fans have been looking ahead to the 2018 MLB draft. The Tigers have the first overall selection for the first time since 1997.

The 1996 season that led the Detroit Tigers to their first ever number one overall selection was even worse than 2017’s mark of 64-98. Detroit went 53-109 under Buddy Bell that season, finishing 14 games behind the next worst club in either league.

The Only No. 1 Overall Pick in Detroit Tigers History

The following June, the Detroit Tigers tabbed hard-throwing righty Matt Anderson with the number one overall pick. Anderson had just finished his junior year at Rice University, where he posted a K/9 rate of nearly 12.

Anderson made his professional debut in 1998, and needed only 30 minor league appearances before reaching Detroit. Less than 400 days after the Detroit Tigers selected him first overall, Anderson made his debut against the Cubs.

Despite his triple-digit fastball, Anderson never had sustained success in the majors. He did rack up 22 saves in 2001 and 26 total in six seasons with the Detroit Tigers, but did not post an ERA below 4.70 after his rookie season.

Most players would take it if they were told they would play seven seasons in the majors. However, it falls well short of the franchise savior fans and front offices are hoping to grab at the top of the draft.

Today, we look at the last 10 number one overall picks to determine the recent success rate of the draft’s top selections. Are the Detroit Tigers more likely to fare better this time around?

2009: Stephen Strasburg (Washington)

One thing which separates the MLB draft from the drafts of other leagues is the ability for players to be drafted multiple times. Most often, this happens when players feel they can improve their draft stock by going to college, or returning to school for another season.

The exception is players who hold out for more money, which is what some people thought may happen with Stephen Strasburg. With Scott Boras as his agent, speculation surrounded Strasburg on whether he was going to be “signable”.

The San Diego State junior was the consensus top pitcher available, and the Nationals waved off “signability” concerns, and snapped him up.  Strasburg held out until just before the deadline, but signed a record-breaking deal.

Once he signed, Strasburg was on the fast track to the big leagues. The righty made just 11 starts in the minors before making his major league debut on June 8, 2010 against Pittsburgh.

“Strasmas” as it was deemed by some, did not disappoint. Just one day shy of the one-year anniversary of his selection, Strasburg gave up two runs in seven innings with 14 strikeouts.

Injuries and Innings Limits

Late in the 2010 season, Strasburg found out he needed to undergo Tommy John surgery, requiring a 12-18 month rehab. He did make it back for the latter stages of the 2011 campaign, but the Nationals tried to protect his arm with an innings limit.

The limit came into play in 2012, when Strasburg was having a terrific season. He was selected to his first All-Star team, and was striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings. The Nationals shut him down anyway, with about a month left in the regular season.

Return to Dominance

After another solid 2013, Strasburg took things to the next level in 2014. He recorded 242 strikeouts, tying Johnny Cueto for the National League lead. Strasburg also finished in the top-10 in the Cy Young voting for the first time.

Despite being slowed by injuries a little in 2014, Strasburg still managed to win 11 of his 23 starts. The last two years, Strasburg has posted identical 15-4 records, and was selected to the All-Star Game both years.

Last year, he finished third in the Cy Young voting, his highest finish to date. The winner? His teammate and former Detroit Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer.

The Verdict

While Scherzer’s presence has kept Strasburg from being the true ace of the Washington staff in recent years, he would be the top option for just about every other team in the majors. He has given them just about everything they could have asked for since they took him nearly eight years ago.

2010: Bryce Harper (Washington)

Like the Rays a few years prior, the Nationals had the top choice in the draft in back-to-back years. After taking what they hoped would be a rotation anchor in 2009, they went for a potential lineup cornerstone in Bryce Harper in 2010.

Harper was a teenage phenom in every sense of the word. After his sophomore year in high school, he earned his GED in order to be eligible for the 2010 draft. As a 17-year old, he played for the College of Southern Nevada with his brother, Bryan. He won the Golden Spikes Award as the top amateur baseball player in the country, and then was picked by the Nationals in June.

As with Strasburg the year before, Harper was represented by Scott Boras, and the deal came down to the wire. The two sides got it done, and he made his debut in the Arizona Fall League.

Harper spent all of 2011 in the minors, and started 2012 there as well. In late April of 2012, Ryan Zimmerman went on the disabled list, and Harper was called up for the first time. Other than minor league rehab assignments, Harper was in The Show to stay.

He took off right away, blasting 22 homers on his way to an All-Star selection and the Rookie of the Year Award in 2012. Harper netted another All-Star selection the next year, but really took off in 2015.

In 2015, Harper hit a career-high .330 and launched 42 homers on his way to the National League MVP Award. His 42 long balls and 118 runs scored led the senior circuit. At 22 years old, he also led the majors in OBP (.460), SLG (.649), and OPS (1.109).

The Post-MVP Years

Harper crashed back to Earth a bit the following year, hitting just .243. Despite the dip in average, he maintained a high OBP, thanks to a major league-leading 20 intentional walks.

His average jumped back up to .319 last year, and he launched 29 homers in just 111 games. 2018 has seen a dip in batting average again, but as always, Harper continues to hit for power and draw a lot of walks. As of this writing, Harper leads the NL in homers, and has 11 more walks than the next closest hitter.

The Verdict

Through his first six major league seasons, Harper has been selected to five All-Star Games, won Rookie of the Year, and an MVP. He has lived up to the hype, and is one of the best power hitters of his generation. And by the way, he’s only 25. Like Harper has done plenty in his young career, Washington knocked this one out of the park.

2011: Gerrit Cole (Pittsburgh)

There were a handful of pitchers who were considered to be in the running for Pittsburgh to take first overall in 2011. The Pirates went with UCLA junior right-hander Gerrit Cole.

Like Strasburg and Harper, it took the Pirates until very near the deadline to sign their prized pick. Cole signed too late to pitch in the minors in 2011, but did appear in the Arizona Fall League.

The following season, Cole made stops at three levels of the minors, concluding his campaign with one start at Triple-A. In 132.0 innings that year, Cole posted a collective 2.80 ERA, and struck out more than a batter per inning.

In June of 2013, Cole made his major league debut. The right-hander helped boost an already strong Pittsburgh starting staff, which included current Detroit Tigers lefty Francisco Liriano. The Pirates ended a 20-year playoff drought, and Cole made a pair of starts in the NLDS against the Cardinals, winning Game 2, but dropping the decisive Game 5.

The righty was a double-digit game winner in each of his first three seasons in the majors. In 2015, Cole was an All-Star and turned in his best season so far. He posted a 2.60 ERA in 208.0 innings, while winning a career-high 19 games. Once again Cole pitched in the postseason, but took the loss in the Wild Card Game against the Cubs.

2016 and 2017 saw Cole fall off a bit from the highs of 2015, partially due to injuries. In 2016, he was limited to just 21 mediocre starts. Last year, Cole tied for the National League lead with 33 starts, but was not consistently effective. His 4.26 ERA was the highest for any of his major league seasons.

The Trade

This offseason, the Pirates traded Cole to Houston for Colin Moran, Michael Feliz, Joe Musgrove, and minor leaguer Jason Martin. The trade has seemed to reenergize Cole, as he and former Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander have been dominant so far for the Astros.

Through eight starts, Cole has a 1.43 ERA, and has fanned 86 in 56.2 innings for a rate of 13.7 per nine innings. Those 86 strikeouts are the most in the majors, with former Detroit Tigers teammates Scherzer and Verlander sitting second and third, respectively.

The Verdict

Much like Strasburg, Cole is an ace in every sense of the word. For now, he and Verlander are more or less co-aces, as the Astros defend their World Series title.

As for the Pittsburgh end of the spectrum, they got five productive seasons out of Cole.  The trade already has some proven some worth, too. Moran and others have helped them to a somewhat surprising strong start to the season.

Most importantly for a smaller budget team like the Pirates, it enabled them to cash in on Cole before he becomes a free agent next offseason. Losing him for nothing more than a compensation pick would’ve been a tough pill for Pittsburgh to swallow.

2012: Carlos Correa (Houston)

The Astros had three straight number one overall picks in from 2012-14 as they tried to jumpstart their rebuild. In 2012, they selected shortstop Carlos Correa from the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy first overall.

Correa had a solid but unspectacular 50-game debut that summer with a pair of Astros rookie-level affiliates. His numbers jumped once he got to full-season ball the following year.

In 2013, Correa hit .320 at Class A, and followed that up with a .325 average at High-A in 2014. After both seasons, he was named an Organizational All-Star for the Astros and continued climbing the prospect rankings.

2015 saw Correa split the first 53 games of his season between Double-A and Triple-A before reaching Houston in June. Despite being just 20 years old, Correa continued to hit, even in the majors.

Correa in The Show

His rookie season was the first of three straight seasons of 20+ homers and 20+ doubles to start his big league career. Correa’s 99-game rookie year slash line of .279/.345/.512 netted him the American League Rookie of the Year Award.

Correa’s exploits also helped the Astros make it to the playoffs for the first time since 2005. Houston beat the Yankees in the Wild Card Game before falling to the eventual World Series Champion Royals in the ALDS.

His numbers dipped a tad in 2016, and so did the Astros, missing out on the postseason. Both rebounded in 2017, with Correa making his first All-Star Team and Houston winning the AL West. He posted career-highs in average (.315), homers (24), runs scored (82), slugging (.550), and OPS (.941). In the postseason, he hit .288 with five more homers to help the Astros clinch their first World Series Title.

Both are off to strong starts again in 2018, with Correa hovering around .300 and Houston leading the strong AL West.

The Verdict

Like Harper, Correa was very young when he was drafted and when he made his major league debut. Correa already has three productive seasons and a World Series ring, and won’t turn 24 until September.

In many ways, he’s become the face of Houston’s rebuild. Their rebuild is an example of how things can turn quickly if you choose wisely at the top of the draft, but they’ve had some misses, too.

2013: Mark Appel (Houston)

Teams had been after Mark Appel since the Detroit Tigers drafted him out of high school in the 15th round of the 2009 draft. Rather than sign, he opted to attend Stanford. After his junior year, the Pirates made him the eighth overall pick, but instead he opted to return for his senior season.

The Astros selected him first overall in 2013, and finally got him to sign. Many scouts thought he was one of the surest college pitching prospects they’d seen in a long time. Over the course of the next few years, they’d be proven wrong.

From Sure Thing to Bust

Appel had a decent enough start to his pro career, recording a 3.79 ERA in two stops over the remainder of the 2013 campaign. The following year is when things started to go wrong.

At this time in the minors, Houston was piggybacking their starters, meaning two starters would go back-to-back in a game. The plan was for the first starter to go five innings, and the second starter to go four, with the two switching the next time through the rotation. The theory was to give everyone the same number of innings and let the top starters emerge from there.

Between struggling to adjust to this new routine, pitching in the offense-friendly California League and nagging injuries, Appel turned in a terrible 2014. Between High-A and Double-A, he posted a collective ERA just below 7.00 for the year.

His numbers improved in 2015, but were still not where anyone expected them to be. That offseason, he was part of the deal that netted Houston closer Ken Giles.

Appel made just eight appearances at Triple-A for Philadelphia in 2016 before injuries cut his season short. He returned last year to make 17 more starts, but was once again derailed by injuries.

Prior to the season, he announced he was taking a break from baseball. If his baseball career is in fact over, he ends it with a career 5.06 ERA in five minor league seasons.

The Verdict

Appel is one of just three first overall picks to never make the big leagues. The trade for Giles helps a little, but good relief pitchers are easier to come by than first round picks.

He also proves one of the most famous sayings in baseball, “There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect.” Between injuries and other factors, too much can go wrong for even the surest of sure things.

2014: Brady Aiken (Houston)

Left-hander Brady Aiken was about as accomplished as you can get for a high school pitcher. In 2013, he helped the United States win the 2013 18U Baseball World Cup.

Many had Aiken as the top prospect on the board going into the 2014 draft. The Astros were intrigued enough to take him with the top pick, envisioning a future rotation with Aiken and Appel.

Almost from the moment Aiken was selected, thing went south. First there were the health issues, as Aiken developed inflammation in his elbow. This new information reportedly killed a verbal agreement between the two sides. When Houston lowered their offer, Aiken declined to sign, and became the first number one overall pick to go unsigned since Tim Belcher in 1983.

A Draft Do-Over

With the deadline elapsed, Aiken decided to enroll at IMG Academy in Florida so he could be eligible for the 2015 draft. The southpaw exited in the first inning of his first start with discomfort in his elbow. In March of that year, he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Aiken was now even more of a risk because he was likely not going to be able to pitch for nearly a year after the upcoming draft. Despite the risks, the Indians grabbed him with the 17th overall selection.

The lefty made his pro debut just more than a year later, and put up a 5.83 ERA in 46.1 innings at two different stops. Despite the high ERA, Aiken showed some of the talent that made Cleveland risk taking him. In his first pro season, he struck out 11.1 batters per nine innings.

Last year, he made 27 starts at Class A, posting a 4.77 ERA. Despite the better ERA, he pitched worse than the year before, walking more batters than he struck out. Aiken has yet to make his 2018 debut, as he appears to be ticketed for short-season ball when it starts up next month.

The Verdict

For Houston, this is almost literally a zero, since Aiken never pitched for any of their affiliates. Their salvation came in the form of a compensation pick. A team is given a compensation pick if they fail to sign their first rounder from the previous year.

As a result, Houston got the second pick in 2015, which they used to select Alex Bregman. Bregman reached the majors quickly, and has seized the everyday third base job for the Astros. It turned out okay for Houston, but if Appel or Aiken had worked out, they may not have had to trade for Cole or Verlander.

At 21, Aiken is certainly young enough to make great strides, but his pro career is certainly off to a bumpy start.

2015: Dansby Swanson (Arizona)

The 2015 draft started off with three straight shortstops, led by the Diamondbacks taking Vanderbilt product Dansby Swanson. Swanson made his pro debut that August, hitting .289 in 22 regular season games with Short-Season Hillsboro.

That winter, he was traded to the Braves in a package for right-hander Shelby Miller. Swanson rose through the ranks quickly in the Atlanta organization. In 2016, he was a Mid-Season All-Star for Double-A Mississippi, and he reached the majors in August.

Over the final 38 games of 2016, Swanson hit .302, though he struggled defensively. The defensive struggles continued last year, and his bat cooled off as well. For the year, he slashed .232/.312/.324, and earned a temporary demotion to Triple-A.

Things had seemingly turned back around offensively for Swanson this year. His .289 batting average and other numbers were closer to being in line with his 2016 debut than his down 2017 campaign. However, earlier this month he landed on the disabled list with a thumb injury, halting his progress.

The Verdict

We’re starting to enter the territory where it’s a little early to get a true gage on whether a player was worth the number one pick. In the case of Swanson, he made the majors quickly and has shown glimpses of being a highly productive player. At the very least, he’s on the right track.

As for Arizona, they seem to have squandered their situation. Miller has been alternately injured and ineffective since coming over. Gabe Speier, the minor leaguer the Diamondbacks got in the deal, is at Double-A for the third straight year.

Arizona is off to a great start this year, but one of the positions they could certainly use an upgrade at is shortstop. They would’ve been better off keeping Swanson.

2016: Mickey Moniak (Philadelphia)

With their first overall pick since Pat Burrell in 1998, the Phillies snagged high school outfielder Mickey Moniak. Unlike many of the others in recent past, Moniak signed quickly.

He spent his entire first season with the GCL Phillies. In 46 games, he hit .284 with 10 stolen bases. Prior to the 2017 season, he ranked as the 17th best prospect in the minors per Baseball America.

Moniak moved up to Class A last year, but saw his numbers dip, slashing .236/.284/.341. The numbers were poor enough that he did not crack Baseball America’s Top 100 list prior to this season. So far in 2018 at High-A Clearwater, his line is even worse, .222/.233/.265.

One of the biggest problems for Moniak has been strikeouts and a lack of walks. Since striking out 18 percent of the time in 2016, his strikeout rate has been on the rise.

His walk rate has been declining too, from a rate that was already low. Moniak walked 5.7 percent of the time in 2016, 5.5 percent in 2017, and 1.7 percent this year.

The strikeout-to-walk ratio has been terrible, too. Through 29 games, he has 33 strikeouts to just two walks. For a guy that hasn’t shown much power (career .345 slugging percentage), ratios like that are nowhere near good enough, even with a strong glove at a premium position.

The Verdict

It is way too early in his development to tell if Moniak is going to be a star, a scrub, or somewhere in between. With that said, the Phillies will be hoping his bat can perk up sooner rather than later. Still, he’s just about to turn 20 and is already in High-A.

As is the case with Detroit Tigers prospect Isaac Paredes, most of the guys he’s playing against are a few years older and more experienced. It isn’t all that surprising someone put in that position would struggle at the plate until he gets more experience under his belt.

2017: Royce Lewis (Minnesota)

Last year, Minnesota went back to the high school ranks and selected shortstop Royce Lewis. Like Moniak, Lewis was eager to start playing right away, and signed quickly.

Just a few weeks after signing, Lewis debuted for the GCL Twins. In 36 games, Lewis hit .271, walked more than he struck out, scored 38 runs, and stole 15 bases in 17 tries. He ended the season by hitting .296 in 18 games for Class A Cedar Rapids.

Lewis’ start to 2018 has been even better. His current .373 average has him in the top 20 in all of Minor League Baseball. He’s continued to steal bases at a high rate, with 10 steals in 11 tries. Three of those 10 steals came in a pair of games against Detroit Tigers affiliate West Michigan last week.

At the beginning of the year, Lewis was rated the 24th overall prospect by Baseball America. He has done nothing but raise his stock in the season’s first month, and could soon be looking at a promotion to High-A.

The Verdict

As was the case with Moniak, it is too early to tell what the future holds for Lewis, who will turn 19 next month. The early returns, however, are very good and Twins fans should be excited to watch him develop.

Next: Tigers Should be Open to Trading Fulmer

What it Means for the Detroit Tigers

What did we learn? The number one overall pick has been at least a productive player in more cases than not in recent years. However, there is still the potential for big whiffs like Houston had with Mark Appel and Brady Aiken. The one thing we know for sure, is the Detroit Tigers need to get this right, or it can really stall a rebuild.

It also tells us the Detroit Tigers can’t solely rely on the draft to rebuild. The Astros may have missed on two of their three top picks, but were able to go outside their organization to supplement their own system. Whether that’s dealing from a position of depth for a position of strength, or finding diamonds in the rough, like J.D. Martinez, the Detroit Tigers need to exhaust all possible avenues to get this team back to being a perennial contender.

With the MLB Draft now less than a month away, make sure to stay tuned to Motor City Bengals for all your Detroit Tigers draft coverage.