Detroit Tigers: Give Ryan Carpenter a Chance

Detroit Tigers left-hander Ryan Carpenter has not looked good in four big league starts, but an increased use in his curveball could be key.

The Detroit Tigers are running out of starting pitching options. With Michael Fulmer and Blaine Hardy still on the DL and Mike Fiers currently dominating for the A’s, the Tigers have resorted to a pair of 27 year olds in Jacob Turner and Ryan Carpenter.

Carpenter came to the Detroit Tigers as a free agent signee this offseason. The 2011 seventh round pick had yet to reach the big leagues, but has now pitched in five games with the Tigers, making four starts. You don’t need me to tell you that Carpenter hasn’t looked very good this season. He has a 6.00 ERA and just a 5.00 K/9.

His 1.50 BB/9 is nice, but at the end of the day Carpenter is around the zone too much, allowing opposing hitters to get comfortable and make hard contact. His 29.2% HR/FB rate is probably a little flukey, but not surprising considering his low velocity and tendency to leave the ball up.

However, digging deeper there is one interesting little gem to discover in his pitch mix: His seldom used curveball is actually his best pitch. It’s a longshot, but perhaps an increased use in his curveball will help Carpenter show signs of being a capable big league No. 5 starter down the stretch.

Carpenter’s Curveball

Carpenter has a fairly standard four-pitch mix: a sinking fastball, a slider, a changeup and his curveball. He uses his fastball a little over 50% of the time, with his slider (29.9%) and changeup (9.4%) following suit. His curveball has only been thrown 27 times, good for just 8.2% of his offerings.

However, those 27 pitches have yielded very solid results. The pitch has a 50.0% o-swing rate and a 14.8% swinging strike rate. That means that hitters have swung at curveballs outside of the strike zone 50% of the time, and that they have swung and missed nearly 15% of the time. Both of those are very solid numbers.

In fact, a Money Pitch is defined as any pitch with a 40+% o-swing rate, a 40+% zone rate and a 15+% swinging strike rate. So Carpenter’s curveball is almost a money pitch – not bad for a fringe SP’s fourth offering.

When his curveball does get hit, it’s not doing much damage. Opposing hitters are hitting just .100 off the curveball, good for a -42 wRC+.

Ultimately, 27 big league curveballs is not enough information to glean any sweeping conclusions from. It’s also entirely possible that Carpenter’s curveball thrives BECAUSE of how little he uses it, and that an increase would actually hurt the pitches value.

Still, it’s had more success than both his slider and his changeup, and for a pitcher battling for his big league career it couldn’t hurt to give his best offering a more extended look down the stretch.