Detroit Tigers: 5 Notable Stats from Fangraph’s 2019 Steamer Projections

The Detroit Tigers have some intriguing projections for a few of their players next season, based on Fangraphs’ Steamer module.

The Detroit Tigers are 1.5 years into what is probably going to be a three-year rebuild. As such, the 2019 season may end up another forgettable one as this team trots out some middling talent while they wait for the talent-heavy farm system to reach the big leagues.

Steamer is a projection module at Fangraphs that was recently released with their 2019 projections. It does not give overall team predictions, but it does provide statistical projections for every player on the roster.

While it is a module, and of course it’s early November so numerous roster moves have yet to be made, it does provide an interesting look at which Tigers players may be poised to have better, or worse, seasons next year. Plus, it gives a look at what Detroit’s depth chart could look like, although Steamer seems to give Detroit a lot more at-bats than they have to go around.

We will look at that and a lot more in these five surprising statistics from the 2019 steamer projections:

Christin Stewart – 18 Home Runs

Longtime prospect Christin Stewart finally reached the big leagues last season, playing in 17 games for the Tigers down the stretch. He totaled two home runs, 10 RBI and slashed a tidy .267/.375/.417 with a 13.9% walk rate and an 18.1% strikeout rate. Although his defense still leaves plenty to be desired, most believe that Stewart will be Detroit’s starting left fielder in 2019.

Steamer projects Stewart for 18 home runs, 52 RBI, 54 runs scored and a .245/.327/.447 slash line. Perhaps more importantly, they believe he will play in 97 games and accrue 410 plate appearances, solid numbers but not quite what you’d expect from a full-time left fielder.

Steamer also projects Tigers left fielder Mikie Mahtook to have 466 plate appearances, which certainly seems unlikely considering the of JaCoby Jones and Nicholas Castellanos. Stewart will have to win the starting job over Mahtook (if he’s still on the roster) as well as Victor Reyes, Dustin Peterson and Mike Gerber, all of whom will compete for a spot on the 25-man roster.

If Stewart wins the job, I expect him to be hitting in the heart of Detroit’s order. While he probably won’t post a .375 OBP and a 13.1% walk rate like he did in September, I think Steamer’s predictions fit in well with what Stewart is capable of doing. And over 600+ plate appearances, I don’t think 30 home runs is out of the question.

Miguel Cabrera – 25 home runs

It’s no secret that Miguel Cabrera is getting up there in age. He missed nearly all of the 2018 season with a back injury, and at age 35 he is likely relegated to just DH duties from here on out.

Steamer must think he’s going to DH full-time as well, otherwise I doubt they’d project the big fella for a team-leading 649 plate appearances next season. Steamer also thinks Miggy will still be an elite hitter, although not quite at the level he was five years ago.

Still, a .282/.368/.479 line with 25 home runs, 88 RBI, a 132 wRC+ and a 2.7 fWAR would be a very nice boost for the Tigers, who are in desperate need of some production out of Miggy and his gargantuan eight-year, $248 million dollar contract that runs through 2023.

25 home runs and a .282 average may seem far-fetched after his last two seasons, but it’s important to remember that Miggy hit .318 with 38 jacks as recently as 2016.

Plus, health has been an issue the last two years. I think these numbers are a bit ambitious, but entirely possible if he manages to stay healthy – which of course is a big if.

Matt Hall – 11 starts

Steamer predicts that Detroit’s starting rotation will be Michael Fulmer, Matthew Boyd, Jordan Zimmermann, Daniel Norris and Blaine Hardy, with each of them making 16 or more starts. Next up is left-hander Matt Hall, who is projected to make 21 appearances for the Tigers, including 11 starts.

Hall made a few appearances down the stretch for the Tigers, after dominating in both AA and AAA. He appeared in five games for Detroit, tossing eight innings and giving up 13 runs on 19 hits with a 5/3 K/BB ratio.

However, despite his ugly performance, Hall is still one of Detroit’s most big league ready pitching prospects, and it is entirely possible he makes a fair amount of appearances in Detroit’s rotation next season. After all, Norris and Fulmer and very injury prone, and Hardy has never pitched a full season in a big league rotation.

I don’t foresee Hall as much more than a SP6/swingman type arm in the big leagues, but I think he is already at that ceiling and could be a regular contributor for the Tigers starting in 2019.

Victor Alcantara – 40 Innings Pitched

The Detroit Tigers rotated through multiple bullpen arms in 2018, with very few finding success while in the Motor City. One of the few who had a solid season was hard throwing right-hander Victor Alcantara.

Across 30 innings pitched, Alcantara posted a 2.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and a 1.80 BB/9. Of course, his sky-high 95.8% left on base rate and .230 BABIP indicate he had a lot of luck on his side – which is shown by his 4.53 FIP and 3.81 SIERA.

Still, he showed enough that steamer views him as one of Detroit’s more important bullpen pieces in 2018. His 40 projected innings is greater than Drew VerHagen, Zac Reininger and Sandy Baez, meaning Steamer thinks he has a good chance to be a part of Detroit’s bullpen throughout the 2019 season.

Armed with a nasty sinker that runs up to 95 miles per hour, Alcantara generates a lot of ground balls which limits his strikeout potential. As such, he’s probably never going to be a closer or even an eighth inning guy. However, he has great potential to be a solid middle reliever for the Tigers, again as soon as 2019.

A lot is going to change for the Detroit Tigers between now and opening day 2019. For now, we can take a look at these projections and determine how this Tigers team may look when the next season is upon us.