The Detroit Tigers Have Started Winning Trades

Detroit Tigers Trade No. 2 – Willi Castro

Martín/Dowdy bWAR for Cleveland – 0.0

Castro bWAR for Detroit – 0.5

These WAR numbers don’t look pretty, but Detroit’s number seems likely to grow quite a bit over the next few seasons. This trade made sense for both teams, as Cleveland was perpetually looking for outfield help and had a logjam in the infield, and Detroit had traded away most of their infield prospects over the previous 3-4 seasons. Martín’s tenure in Cleveland was a failure, though that wasn’t really his fault. He hit two home runs in his first six games with the club, but then he missed the rest of the season with a bacterial infection that nearly killed him. He returned for 2019 but was designated for assignment after hitting just .199 with 9 home runs in 62 games. Dowdy saw an immediate velocity spike when he landed in the Cleveland system, as one does, and was later selected in the Rule 5 Draft, waived, picked up by the Rangers, and then returned to Cleveland. Willi Castro, meanwhile, was one of the best rookie hitters in 2020, and while he needs to work on his defense and plate discipline, he looks like a legitimate regular for the Tigers.

Verdict – Another clear win for the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Trade No. 3 – Nolan Blackwood and Logan Shore

Fiers bWAR for Oakland – 0.8

Shore/Blackwood bWAR for Detroit – NA

The Tigers and A’s seemed to dance around a Fiers trade for a few weeks, and then the deadline came and went.  They consummated the deal a week later, with Detroit agreeing to take two players-to-be-named for Fiers. Those players ended up being Nolan Blackwood and Logan Shore, who haven’t reached the Majors, and if they ever do it will likely be as middle relievers. Fiers was strong for Oakland down the stretch, but they let him enter free agency, and then re-signed him. But the most interesting part of this trade is the hypothetical. Maybe if the Tigers trade Fiers to a different team he doesn’t spend 2 years getting pummeled by the division-rival Houston Astros (0-2, 8.34 ERA in 29 IP). And maybe if he’s on another team he’s not quite as eager to spill the beans about Houston’s scandalous sign-stealing operation. And if that doesn’t happen then A.J. Hinch is still the head coach in Houston, and the Detroit Tigers are heading into year one of the Don Kelly regime.

Verdict – A probable loss for the Tigers on players, but a huge win for the organization.

Detroit Tigers Trade No. 4 – Alex Lange and Paul Richan

Castellanos bWAR for Chicago – 1.5

Lange/Richan bWAR for Detroit – NA

Castellanos went off for the Cubs after this trade, batting .321 with 16 home runs in just 51 games with the club. He didn’t walk and his defense was poor, but it didn’t matter because he was mashing. That wasn’t enough to save the flagging Cubs, however, as they went just 27-28 down the stretch and finished 3rd in the NL Central. Castellanos was a fan favorite in his limited time in Chicago, but he moved on to Cincinnati in free agency. The Tigers’ end of this deal is still to be determined, though at least part of it is looking good. Alex Lange was a first-round pick for the Cubs, but Chicago was developing him as a starter and things weren’t going well. Detroit immediately moved him to the bullpen, and the results have been promising. Lange’s fastball is averaging 97 MPH this spring, and he has flashed a plus breaking ball. He was optioned out of camp today, but he looks like he may have late-inning potential. Paul Richan isn’t a highly touted prospect, but he’s an analytically minded guy with four fringe-average pitches who could eventually find his way to the big leagues.

Verdict – Solid chance to be a draw or win for the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Trade No. 5 – Travis Demeritte and Joey Wentz

Greene bWAR for Atlanta – 1.4

Demeritte/Wentz bWAR for Detroit – (-1.2)

The WAR numbers on this one look bad, but you only have to dig a little deeper to feel pretty good about Detroit’s odds here. Shane Greene was a luxury for the Tigers. He made the All-Star team in 2018, and he through four months of 2019 he had compiled a 1.18 ERA and 22 Saves for a terrible club that went on to lose 114 games. The return felt a bit light at the time, but despite his numbers, Greene wasn’t viewed as an elite closer, and true to form he posted a 4.01 ERA with just one Save for Atlanta after the deal. He looked a bit better last year, but still didn’t close games, and now he’s a free agent. Demeritte was the second piece here; a lottery ticket with plus raw power but a long history of contact issues. The Tigers gave him just 198 at-bats over two seasons, but his .608 OPS didn’t really merit more playing time. He is now back with the Braves.

Joey Wentz was always the prize of this deal, and he looked like a better prospect the instant he entered Detroit’s system. Wentz owned a 4.72 ERA over 20 Double-A starts when the Tigers acquired him, but he posted a 2.10 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 25.2 innings after joining Erie. He has since undergone Tommy John surgery, but by all accounts his rehab is progressing nicely. He is one of Detroit’s top-10 prospects, and while there’s still some risk here, he has a good chance to become a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Verdict – Solid chance to be a draw or win for the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Trade No. 6 – Zack Short

Maybin bWAR for Chicago – (-0.1)

Short bWAR for Detroit – NA

In a very strange year, the Tigers and Cubs made a very minor deadline deal. Chicago was once again looking for some veteran outfield help, but apparently not looking terribly hard. Maybin saw action in 18 games down the stretch, hitting .250 with no home runs, and he went 0-for-2 in Chicago’s shocking Wild Card series loss to the Marlins. Short wasn’t at Chicago’s alternate training site last year, and he hasn’t seen the Majors yet, but he was pretty impressive in spring training. He, too, was optioned today, but not before he made his presence known on defense and at the plate. He may not hit a ton, but he looks the part of a future utility infielder — possibly a super utility man — and his defense and surprising pop could make him valuable in the future.

Verdict – Solid chance to be a draw or win for the Tigers.