Detroit Tigers: Five Ugly Stats to Make You Cringe

Detroit Tigers fans who listen to the Tigers SRD podcast should be familiar with our Inside the Numbers segment. For those who don’t listen, we simply pick a number or two and then explain the context. It’s not groundbreaking, but we like to think it’s a good way to add some heft to stats that might otherwise go by unnoticed.

We’ve decided to bring the Inside the Numbers segment to readers, too, beginning with a five-pack of ugly stats to help explain Detroit’s rough start

Detroit Tigers Stat: -28

That is Detroit’s run differential through 16 games this season, the worst in baseball. If you’re unfamiliar with run differential, it’s simply the difference between the number of runs a team has scored and the runs they have allowed. A team’s run differential is a quick and dirty way to determine their overall talent and luck.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, for instance, currently have a +37 run differential, which seems to match their 13-4 record. The Seattle Mariners have a 11-6 record with a -2 run differential, suggesting some early good luck. The Chicago White Sox are just 8-9 despite a +11 run differential, suggesting some bad luck and/or bullpen issues.

The 2021 Detroit Tigers probably aren’t the worst team in baseball. But it seems like, for the 5th consecutive season, they’ll be battling to avoid that ugly distinction.

Detroit Tigers Stat: 5

This number is the consecutive games with at least two strikeouts for Akil Baddoo. We took a deeper look at Baddoo’s strikeouts and drew some conclusions, and then he struck out twice more on Sunday. His streak of five consecutive multi-strikeout games is tied for the 8th longest in franchise history, but this is exactly the sort of thing fans should expect from a player with 29 games of experience above Low-A. If you are curious, here are the longest multi-strikeout streaks in Detroit Tigers history:

Detroit Tigers Stat: .558

This stat may take some explaining, but trust us, it’s ugly. It’s the On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) against Detroit Tigers pitchers this year after an 0-2 count, which should generally be death for hitters. The league-wide OPS after 0-2 counts this year is .419. If you’re unfamiliar with OPS, here’s a quick explanation from FanGraphs:

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) is exactly what it sounds like: the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and their slugging percentage…OPS has value as a metric because it is accepted and used more widely than other, more accurate statistics while also being a relatively accurate representations of offense.

Detroit Tigers pitchers have gotten ahead 0-2 to 114 batters this year, and they’ve then gone on to give up 21 hits (5th worst batting average), 5 walks (5th worst OBP), and 4 home runs (4th worst slugging percentage). The Tigers also have the 3rd worst strikeout rate after getting ahead 0-2. The pitching staff isn’t putting batters away the way they should be.

Who are the biggest culprits? Matthew Boyd has given up seven hits and one walk after getting ahead 0-2 this season. Casey Mize has allowed a walk and two hits, including a homer, and Tarik Skubal has given up two doubles. But the biggest issue seems to be coming from the veteran relievers. Tyler Alexander, Buck Farmer, Joe Jimenez, and Daniel Norris have combined to get ahead 0-2 on 14 hitters this year. They’ve gone on to allow 5 hits (including 2 home runs) and 3 walks. That’s a great recipe for producing the worst run differential in baseball. Maybe Shane Greene would help?

Detroit Tigers Stat: 2.28

So 2.28 would be a great number if we were talking about an ERA, but of course we aren’t. That’s the number of home runs the Detroit Tigers bullpen is allowing per 9 innings so far this year. It’s easily the worst in baseball — the next closest team is the Washington Nationals at 1.69 — and there are 17 bullpens out there with a HR/9 rate less than half of Detroit’s.

Detroit Tigers relievers have allowed 14 home runs in 55.1 innings this year, compared to 12 home runs in 83.1 innings from their starters. Buck Farmer has already given up four home runs this season (in 6.2 IP) after allowing just three last year. José Cisnero has given up two home runs (in 6 IP) after allowing just one in 2020, and Tyler Alexander has coughed up three long balls in 6.1 innings after giving up eight in 36+ innings last year.

It would be nice if we could tell you the the Tigers have just been unlucky, but that doesn’t appear to be true. Their bullpen has allowed the second-highest slugging percentage of any team, behind only Colorado, but according to Statcast, their expected slugging is 30 points worse than their actual number. It’s the highest in baseball, and it suggests the bullpen has actually been a little lucky. Yikes.