Detroit Tigers: Three things to watch for on Matt Manning’s debut

In an unsurprising move, the Detroit Tigers recently promoted right-handed starting pitcher Matt Manning to the taxi squad to make his MLB debut Thursday night against the Los Angeles Angels.

The move is not predictable in that Matt Manning’s performance forced the Detroit Tigers hand, though.

A litany of injuries has put the organization in a position of need for starting pitching. Since the beginning of the season, Julio Teheran and Rony Garcia have both found the 60-day injured list. Jose Urena went on the 10-day injured list with a forearm strain but has since returned. Spencer Turnbull was placed on the injured list with a right forearm strain. Matthew Boyd went to the injured list with what they are calling ‘left arm discomfort.’ Michael Fulmer has found his way in the bullpen.

That leaves Mize, Skubal, and Urena left out of the bunch; and the injuries don’t even take into account that Skubal and Mize are not likely to take on a full starter’s workload through the end of the year. Litotes incoming: they might need a fresh arm.

Enter Matt Manning–2016 first-round selection, the third-best prospect in the Detroit Tigers’ system, and the 18th-best prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB.com. After a forearm strain shut Manning down in 2020 after some time at the alternate training site, Manning started the year with Triple-A Toledo, where he has gone 32.1 innings, given up 40 hits, and struck out 36. His 29 earned runs are good for an 8.07 ERA across his seven starts.

Luckily, I had the opportunity to sit and evaluate two separate starts in 2021; both of which happened to be some of his best starts of the year by the numbers. The first start was against the Columbus Clippers (Indians AAA affiliate); a game in which he went 6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. Start two was against the Louisville Bats (Reds AAA affiliate), where he went 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K.

Considering what I saw with my own eyes on those nights along with whispers I heard from the scouts around me, there are the three things I’d keep tabs on for Matt Manning’s debut.

What is Matt Manning’s velocity, how long does he hold it for, and do the nerves take over

Detroit Tigers starter Matt Manning was felt by many to be a low-mileage arm with significant projection with his velocity when he was drafted. At the time, Manning was a high school pitcher who had taken to pitching later in high school. This raised the intrigue for many teams but it also raised the risk.

Fast forward five seasons and Manning has shown more of the mid-’90s than the upper-90’s perhaps evaluators and analysts would have hoped would come along. Still, he does show the ability to scrape 97 with his four-seamer.

During my looks, velocity was inconsistent. In my first look, he was 91-92 in the first inning before finding and maintaining 93-95 through the remainder of the start and finding a little extra when necessary. More recently, he was mostly 92-94 with his fastball except for the fifth inning, where he randomly went 95-97 before bumping it back down through the rest of the game.

Of course, throwing harder is typically better, but the upper band of his velocity appears to compliment his other pitches too, considering it widens the gap in velocity between them. Considering his inconsistencies with the offering in Toledo as well as the adrenaline that comes with making your major league debut, fastball velocity will be a fascinating watch on Thursday.

How the Detroit Tigers choose to deploy Matt Manning’s curveball

Matt Manning’s curveball is what gets scouts’ attention. It’s a big hook in the 79-81 velocity band that yielded swings and misses all night in my second viewing against the Columbus Clippers in Toledo.

I was equally impressed by the pitch (as I notated in my live looks piece for Prospects Live), but it wasn’t quite as consistent as I expected it to be. While there was a fair share of sharp, tight-rotating benders, there was also the mix of get-me-over strikes and guided offerings that ended up in the dirt.

I expect Manning to lean heavily on his curveball to navigate an Angels lineup with some thump, especially when he is ahead in the count. It will take some time for Manning, certainly, but consistency with his best pitch will be paramount to pitch deep into the night hours.

As an aside, I would be fascinated and surprised if Manning can work his fastball with his curveball and leverage the fastball up in the zone. With a big curve like his, I could see him getting some swings and misses with high heat if he tunnels the offering correctly (although he traditionally works east-to-west with the fastball).