Detroit Tigers: 2 prospects that need a promotion and 1 that needs a demotion

RHP Reese Olson, Double-A to Triple A

Acquired in the Daniel Norris trade last July, Olson has been a really nice find. He currently has a 3.20 ERA with 66 strikeouts in just 45 innings of work in Double-A Erie. His FIP is 2.16, which suggests he’s pitching better that he actually is. Considering the Tigers got this kid for pretty much nothing, Al Avila may have gotten this one right.

Here’s what MLB Pipeline has to say about Olson:

“While Olson doesn’t profile as a power pitcher, his fastball can get to the mid-90s and a tick above when he wants, an improvement from the start of his pro career. His next step is to sustain velocity improvement without sacrificing command. Though his curveball was a preferred secondary pitch earlier in his career, he found success with a slider and a changeup last season, and is trying to sharpen the slider to play off the curve. Though Olson has a compact delivery, he can also struggle to get back in form when he falls out. He had eight outings with seven or more strikeouts, but he also had six outings with four-plus walks. Only once did he reach both in the same outing.”

Olson was drafted in the 13th round of the 2018 draft by the Milwaukee Brewers. Considering the pitching factory that organization has become in recent years, it makes sense they would think they could afford to move on from a guy like him.

As Pipeline mentions, walks have been an issue for Olson in the past, but he’s only walking two batters per nine so far this year. Combine that with a 13.2 K/9 and you’ve got the makings of a pretty darn good pitcher on your hands.

Olson is overdue for a promotion at this point. It’s time to see what he can do against Triple-A hitters.

3B Colt Keith, High-A to Double-A

Keith was a fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft. The Detroit Tigers gave him a large signing bonus to keep him away from his commitment to Arizona State. So far, it’s safe to say both parties are happy in this situation.

Keith was a two-way player in high school, and was actually getting some buzz from teams looking to draft him as a pitcher. The whole hitting thing has worked out for him so far, as he is by far the best hitting prospect the Detroit Tigers have at the moment.

Here’s MLB Pipeline’s scouting report on Keith:

“Keith is athletic for his big frame…His size hasn’t yet translated into power, but he has a nice line-drive approach and advanced plate discipline for his age thanks in part to a quick, efficient left-handed swing that enables him to wait to commit. His .320 average at Lakeland included a .437 on-base percentage; followed by eight walks in 18 games at West Michigan. He doesn’t chase breaking balls out of the zone often, though he can be challenged by high velocity in the strike zone. He has quick reactions and a strong arm, but will need to continue working to stick at third.”

Keith’s advanced plate discipline has served him well. The Tigers have been awfully aggressive with him so far and that has also panned out. He’s played all of 2022 at High-A West Michigan, slashing .299/.372/.533 with a .905 OPS and eight home runs. At just 20 years old, he’s raked at every level of the minors so far. According to Fangraphs, Keith ranks seventh among High-A players 21 or younger in wRC+ at 152, and 10th in ISO at .234.

The Tigers have been aggressive with Keith in the past, and they should continue that aggression. Some thought he was getting promoted a couple weeks ago when Flores and Hill got the bump. He would be one of the youngest players at Double-A, but Keith has done nothing to show that he couldn’t handle that challenge.

SS Cristian Santana, Low-A to DSL

This is where not having short-season ball hurts. It’s awfully aggressive putting an 18-year-old in Low-A, but the Tigers didn’t really have a choice.

Santana was a highly-touted shortstop out of the Dominican Republic, and the Tigers inked him to $2.95 million deal in January 2021. He then posted a .941 OPS in the Dominican Summer League last season as a 17-year-old, so you can see why the Tigers made the decision to bump him up to Lakeland.

But he has struggled mightily in 2022. He’s slashing .149/.289/.284 with a .573 OPS. He is currently injured, which doesn’t help, but it’s really tough watching a young kid with as much talent as Santana struggle so much.

Here’s what Pipeline has to say about him:

“Santana has very strong legs, which provide both the strength of his right-handed swing and the low center of gravity that helps him move smoothly and quickly at short. His above-average bat speed and efficient swing allow him to turn on power pitches and make him difficult to pitch inside. He isn’t afraid to stand up on the plate and was hit by 15 pitches over just 54 games in the DSL. For his power, he doesn’t chase as often as others his age, and he can recognize breaking pitches. He might not make highlight plays at short, but he has the potential to be a reliable defender, earning him comparisons to Jhonny Peralta, though his current build brings some comparisons to former Tigers prospect Willy Adames. Santana has good speed with his leg strength but is still learning how to utilize it on the basepaths.”

The Jhonny Peralta comparisons are interesting because of his current build, as Pipeline notes. Peralta was considerably bulkier than Santana’s 6-foot, 165 lb stature, although he’ll probably add some weight as he gets older.

Part of me wants the Detroit Tigers to keep Santana in A-ball to see if he can work things out, especially since the injury has taken some at-bats away. But again, at just 18 years old, I think you can send him back down to rookie ball when their season starts back up and not feel too bad about it.