Three reasons for the Detroit Tigers’ pitching regression

Detroit Tigers pitching has gone from top 10 to the bottom third in the league

Resilience by the Detroit Tigers pitching staff might be the sole reason that their 2022 season has not gone from horrible to historic. Despite injuries to Kyle Funkhouser, Jose Cisnero, Andrew Chafin, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Michael Pineda, the team had gotten by, and even thrived in some respects, in the pitching department.

Unfortunately, it appears some of their early-season magic mojo is wearing off, and the club now ranks 21st in team ERA entering Thursday at 4.10.  Much of the problem, though, comes from their starters; who have now ballooned to a 4.84 ERA as a corps–and their 4.53 FIP suggests only a small slight from the defense behind them. The Tigers are now averaging over an earned run every other inning. Not a great recipe to win.

It was to be expected, to some extent. Despite the cosmic pedestal that the fan base places Chris Fetter on, the likes of Rony Garcia, Beau Brieske, and Alex Faedo can only fill the cracks for so long before the league begins to figure them out and runs start to leak through in bunches. Luckily, the bullpen has been able to clean up largely thanks to their four-pronged approach: Alex Lange, Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, and Gregory Soto.

The staff has had some difficult offenses to endure in June, with Toronto (1st in OPS), New York (3rd in OPS), Boston (5th in OPS), and Minnesota (6th in OPS), but there are reasons beyond opponent that could be playing a factor in the Tigers’ challenges on the mound.

1. Tarik Skubal has regressed

Many felt Tarik Skubal was on his way to a breakout; establishing himself as one of the top 30 pitchers in the game and becoming the horse the Detroit Tigers were hoping to develop through their rebuild. While that could still be the case in the long-term, Skubal has struggled in his last five starts:

Overall, Skubal could still very well be on his way to having a great year, but this lump in the season cannot be ignored. Manager A.J. Hinch has mentioned in interviews that Skubal has been taking bad pitches with him into following pitches and at-bats and feels that lack of focus might be a contributing factor to his struggles.

Skubal allowed two home runs in his first nine starts but has allowed four in his last six contests, lending credence to Hinch’s theory. Skubal’s velocity and movement profiles remain strong, too. For a roster littered with dings, maybe Skubal’s issues being more mental is a more favorable fix over something mechanical or physical.

2. The Eduardo Rodriguez drama

Nothing injury-wise can surprise Detroit Tigers fans anymore, but non-injury problems that prevent a player from participating remains a foreign territory. That is exactly where the organization finds itself with the newly-signed Eduardo Rodriguez, who made eight starts and supplied 0.5 fWAR before being placed on the restricted list out of nowhere.

The placement later was deemed a ‘marital issue’ and there is no timetable for Rodriguez’s return. He will not receive pay while on the restricted list.

Rodriguez had been rehabilitating in Toledo with the Mud Hens and was preparing a return from a previous rib injury when the issue arose. He made one start and struck out nine over four innings without allowing a run.

The lefty is a respected mid-rotation arm who receives high marks for his efficiency and command. He’s done a nice job this season generating soft contact; he ranks in the 72nd percentile of the league in average exit velocity.

The Detroit Tigers signed the former Boston Red Sox lefty to a five-year, $77 million contract in the offseason.