ESPN insider just refuted Jeff Passan's Tarik Skubal trade take as Tigers stay alive

The Tigers took their second straight series win on Wednesday with a 5-1 victory over the Cubs. Keider Montero pitched a solid 5 1/3 innings in his return to the rotation. Hao-Yu Lee was the hero at the plate with a three-run homer off of Colin Rea in the fourth to put the Tigers up 4-1, after Spencer Torkelson hit his own solo shot in the second. Zach McKinstry capped off the scoring with an RBI double in the ninth.

Detroit is 48-54, 6.5 games back of the first place White Sox and 4.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. Their +28 run differential is better than all of the Astros', Twins', Orioles', and Mariners' ahead of them in the Wild Card standings.

There are 10 games (three series) standing between them and the Aug. 3 trade deadline. Last we heard, the Tigers still believe they're in this fight and are not motivated to trade Tarik Skubal, but there's so much up in the air that we're all just going to be white-knuckling it until 6 PM on Aug. 3.

Jeff Passan wrote in his latest trade candidate ranking that Skubal had a 60% chance of being traded — "Considering the hole they've dug themselves, [the Tigers] are far more likely than not to move Skubal." This seemed more like a pessimistic interpretation of where the Tigers are in the standings than anything else, but Passan's takes hold a lot of weight.

However, Passan's ESPN colleague Jesse Rogers wasn't so sure. He wrote, "The Tigers think they can win the division and will hold out as long as possible in deciding whether to trade Skubal. Some rivals believe they can as well, casting further doubt that he'll be moved."

ESPN has dueling Tarik Skubal trade takes as Tigers keep their heads above water

The Tigers have four games against the Royals up next, and Kansas City is in fifth place in the AL Central and just lost Bobby Witt Jr. If the Tigers can take that series and improve to at least 51-55 (.481), they'll be in good shape, but the following series against the Orioles might be the most pivotal.

Baltimore is the only team in this All-Star-break-to-deadline stretch that stands directly between the Tigers and a Wild Card spot, 1.5 games ahead of Detroit and three back of the Wild Card. The Orioles have a tougher go of things between now and that series — three games against the Braves — but the Tigers need to distinguish themselves between the rest of the middling pack before the deadline.

It's impossible for even the most optimistic of Tigers fans to get too excited right now, but Detroit is certainly staying afloat. Getting to an above-.500 record, which is entirely plausible if the Tigers keep playing well, might be the thing that convinces the front office to buy instead of sell and convinces the media that Skubal is off-limits. But we're still taking things a day at a time.

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