Is Tarik Skubal about to break the arbitration system as we know it?

Tarik Skubal has made a name for himself by being one of the game's most dominant pitchers — his back-to-back Cy Young awards and 2.39 ERA over the past three seasons are a testament to that. However, now that we're rounding third on the offseason, his name has reentered headlines, and not because of a potential trade.

Skubal and the Tigers were $13 million apart on their proposed salary figures on arbitration deadline day, an unheard-of spread between two parties during this process, and the issue will now (most likely) go to an arbitration panel. Aside from the record-setting $32 million salary being sought by Skubal and his agent Scott Boras, it could have other key downstream impacts on the process as a whole.

Skubal's unique profile makes him the perfect candidate to test how arbitration handles edge cases

At first glance, one might assume that the disconnect here simply stems from Skubal being very skilled and the Tigers being somewhat frugal. Neither assumption is particularly off-base, but it does gloss over the intriguing nuances that have allowed this situation to materialize in the first place.

In a recent article for The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal highlighted several reasons why this spread exists and why both sides have reasonable arguments. For the Tigers, paying Skubal $32 million would mean more than tripling his 2025 salary of $10 million. This would represent nearly 20% of their payroll and would be an unprecedented single-season raise. In a year where broadcast revenue is still uncertain, this could be a major financial burden on ownership.

On Skubal's side, he's clearly very good, but that's hardly enough to build a case around. Instead, Boras is leaning into two key aspects of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. One is the fact that he has more than five years of service time, clocking in at 5.114. The other is the special accomplishments provision which reads as follows:

"The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League
service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player’s annual service group. This shall not limit the ability of a Player or his
representative, because of special accomplishment, to argue the equal relevance of salaries of Players without regard to service, and the arbitration panel shall give whatever weight to such argument as is deemed appropriate."

Collective Bargaining Agreement

In plain English, this means that most arbitration-eligible players should only be evaluated against other arbitration-eligible players. However, if a player has special accomplishments on his resume (awards, basically) then players outside of his service class (i.e., free agents) are relevant comparisons.

These two clauses of the CBA make it fair for Skubal to be compared to essentially any pitcher for salary purposes. Because of his performance on the field, he's most similar to the absolute cream of the crop. If granted, his $32 million salary would land in between Dylan Cease ($30 million) and Corbin Burnes ($35 million) but it would still end up being a meaningful discount compared to the record-breaking free agent pitcher contract he's expected to sign after hitting the market later this calendar year.

If the Tigers win the ruling, they'll get to keep their ace for another year and things will proceed as usual. If Skubal wins, it could be one of several hot topics that surface during the negotiations for the upcoming CBA. The hot-button topic will obviously be about the growing chasm in team payroll, but giving players more or less negotiating power in arbitration would be a subsection of that discussion.

This situation is just one of several factors that have made this offseason a peculiar one for the Tigers. Some theorize that this friction could create an angle to trade Skubal in his final year of team control, but even if he remains with the team, it's unlikely that there won't be at least some hard feelings.