Ken Rosenthal is convinced Tigers are doomed to go to a hearing with Tarik Skubal

The most interesting part of the Tarik Skubal arbitration fight isn’t the dollar gap. You already know the numbers. The real story is that both sides think the other is trying to rewrite the rules.

That’s the core tension in Ken Rosenthal’s piece: the Tigers believe Skubal’s ask is so aggressive it ignores how arbitration has historically worked. Skubal and Scott Boras believe Detroit’s filing ignores two rarely-used Collective Bargaining Agreement provisions that do apply here — “special accomplishments” plus five-plus years of service — which can let Skubal argue value using the broader salary landscape, not just traditional pitcher-to-pitcher comps.

Tarik Skubal arbitration fight could shape how the Tigers handle stars

So it’s not just a salary dispute. It’s precedent vs. permission.

And from the Tigers’ perspective, that’s exactly what makes this whole thing feel like a trap. Because if this really is heading toward a February hearing — as Rosenthal suggests is “all but inevitable” if Skubal stays in Detroit — Detroit isn’t only negotiating with a player. They’re starring in a test case that has league-and-union undertones.

It’s brutal timing for a franchise trying to sell stability. The Tigers are coming off back-to-back playoff appearances and have spent the winter trying to upgrade the roster. But the article also points out the uncomfortable fact that Skubal’s future in Detroit is not guaranteed, and the team has left the door open to the possibility of trading him. Add an arbitration fight on top of that, and it gets hard to picture an aggressive free-agent retention pitch a year from now. You don’t usually pick a public fight with the guy you want to keep forever.

Skubal and Boras don’t have much to lose. Rosenthal notes that if Skubal stays healthy and dominant in 2026, the free-agent ceiling could be ridiculous (he floats $400 million). If the panel sides with Detroit, Skubal still gets a raise and still walks toward free agency with leverage. If the panel sides with Skubal, it’s a seismic result for how elite pitchers can argue arbitration value going forward. 

Hearings are ugly by design. Teams win them by sanding down the player’s case — workload, comps, whatever angle they can defend. That stuff lingers, especially when it’s directed at the face of your rotation.

Rosenthal also highlights why this is so hard to handicap: arbitration panels can be wildly unpredictable. Maybe they get starstruck by Skubal’s résumé and the “special accomplishments” language. Or maybe they protect the system and refuse to create a new paradigm.

Either way, this isn’t the kind of fight a team casually survives with its ace. The Tigers can call it business. Fans will call it a message. And if the message lands wrong, it won’t matter who “wins” on paper.