The trade deadline is almost here, and things have been heating up across the league. It's becoming more and more clear that the major buyers — Dodgers, Orioles — are gearing up to make splashes, and that the major sellers — White Sox, Marlins — are doing their best to secure the best possible deals to salvage their farm systems.
The Tigers are in a space that a lot of other teams are occupying. They definitely won't buy, but they're bound to give up at least one key player at the deadline. Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Mark Canha are all names that are of interest this season, but there's a lot that could go wrong between now and July 30 that could throw a wrench into their plans.
3 nightmare scenarios for the Detroit Tigers at this year's MLB trade deadline
Tigers trade Tarik Skubal
This one seems like a given for any list of nightmares.
We've already elucidated the many ways in which the Tigers trading Skubal would be spiritually badfor Detroit and for fans who are already impatient with the team, but there are also practical concerns now that the rotation has weathered another injury. Reese Olson went onto the IL on Sunday, leaving the Tigers with three starters and few, if any, good options in the minors. Matt Manning has been struggling this season, and Jackson Jobe is still down in Double-A.
So not only would trading Skubal be bad for morale, but it would also hobble the rotation even further. A Skubal trade would certainly net Detroit a host of young prospects, but a major-league-ready starter is almost completely out of the question. Only a handful of teams will be active at all, either as buyers or sellers, and the starters available from the selling teams, just like Skubal, will go for a hefty price.
Olson's injury and the current rotation has to have had ramifications on the Tigers' potential Skubal trade (as in, they are probably less likely to do it now). But, if Casey Mize can come back before or just after the trade deadline, they could be tempted, and top teams like the Dodgers and Orioles dangling some of baseball's best prospects in front of their eyes would be hard to pass up.
Jack Flaherty's market doesn't materialize
As mentioned, there are few teams expected to be very active on the market, and the big buyers are looking for the cream of the crop. That's Skubal, Garrett Crochet ... maybe Jesús Luzardo if they're willing to contend with the fact that he still has an uncertain path back from a lumbar injury. That makes starters in the next tier down — Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Erick Fedde — still desirable, but perhaps less likely to be overpaid for, unless it's as a consolation and teams are scrambling.
Flaherty is in a somewhat unpredictable place himself because of the recurring back issue he's been dealing with through the summer. He's avoided the IL and has only missed a couple of starts because of it, but the recurring pain could leave some teams wanting to stay away from him, especially given his history of injury mixed with poor performance.
The Orioles could've been one of those teams looking for a consolation starter if they lose out on Skubal or he's not traded at all, but Flaherty already has a rocky history in Baltimore (he was traded there, then demoted to the bullpen last season, where he still performed badly) and it's unlikely they'll want to take the risk on him again.
Given the state of the Tigers rotation, maybe it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for the short-term if they couldn't trade Flaherty. However, then they would have to deal with any potential issues themselves and miss out on a prospect or two in trade. At this point, trading a healthy Flaherty is a must, but if the Dodgers come down with Crochet and the Orioles stay away...the market could be murky.
Mark Canha's injuries act up
Canha was looking pretty untrade-able for a spell in early July, when he and Gio Urshela went a collective 12-for-45 over a seven game stretch. None of Detroit's hitters were doing particularly well during that period, so it might've just been something in the water, but as a potential trade candidate to package up with Flaherty, Canha's success was a linchpin to the Tigers' trade deadline plans.
But, also like the rest of the team, Canha picked it up during Detroit's series against the Dodgers and has brought that production past the All-Star break. He's batting .364 with a 1.072 OPS over his last seven games with a home run, three RBI, and five walks on top. His OBP is still the second-best of any qualified Tigers hitters after only Riley Greene.
However, Canha was hit with an sore wrist on July 13 that had him sitting out the next day. He's only played in three of four of the Tigers' games coming out of the All-Star break and has looked good doing it, but it is a concern Detroit will have to keep an eye on over the next week.
If he does have to sit out more or even go onto the IL because of injury, that would pretty much spell the end of whatever hopes the Tigers would have of trading him.