Detroit Tigers: 1 contract extension to make and 1 to avoid

Extension to make: Riley Greene

This is a pretty straightforward and easy decision here as Riley Greene is far and away the most talented and currently promising young player on the Tigers’ roster. Before he went down with a stress fracture in his left fibula, Riley was slashing .296/.362/.443 with a 127 wRC+. He is one of those rare talents that can do pretty much anything on a baseball field and has the hit tool to make all of it play.

Realistically, there are few other options for the Tigers to consider here. Spencer Torkelson has the prospect pedigree and name recognition certainly, but he has struggled to be a league-average hitter in the big leagues ever since his promotion despite all of that talent. Zach McKinstry and Jake Rogers are good to great defensively, but don’t bring a lot to the table offensively. As for Detroit’s young pitchers, well…we will talk about them here in a minute.

Giving Greene an extension absolutely comes with some risk. Locking in a guy with less than a full season of big league plate appearances under his belt for what would be some pretty significant money (and that is assuming he would be interested) could easily backfire if he takes a step back and doesn’t produce.

That said, this is a risk that the Tigers at least need to try and take. An extension with Greene this early on would likely only give the team a year or two of extra team control. However, it would also lock in his salary for his arbitration years which is a pretty big deal. Arbitration for players who perform well is not getting any cheaper and getting some cost-certainty for those years has a lot of value when it comes to roster planning.

It does take two to tango here and Greene may think that hitting free agency at 28 years old with his skillset could line him up for a huge payday and he may very well be right. However, getting a big chunk of money guaranteed to him this early in his career also has a ton of value and his recent injury may help remind him that nothing is certain until deals are signed.  

Extension to avoid: Tarik Skubal

We aren’t necessarily picking on just Tarik Skubal here as, to be blunt, giving long-term deals to pitchers in general are notoriously risky. The Braves went ahead and did that with Spencer Strider last year, so it isn’t unprecedented to give a young pitcher an extension. However, pitchers are a lot more likely to get injured and/or have their production drop-off suddenly. Case in point, just ask the Nationals how they are feeling about the deals they are currently locked into with Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg.

Skubal is a clear example of this problem. He had Tommy John surgery while in college which isn’t immediately disqualifying given the recovery rates we have seen from TJS in recent years and his stuff when he is on the field is genuinely exciting. However, he then had to undergo surgery on his flexor tendon in 2022 and he is only now rehabbing from the injury. The laws of physics are decidedly not kind on pitchers’ bodies and given enough time, almost all of them have something come up.

You don’t have to look far for other examples just with the Tigers alone. Casey Mize is a former No. 1 overall pick and he dealt with shoulder inflammation in the minor leagues and had Tommy John and then back surgery last year that will keep him out until at least this fall. Matt Manning is also on the injured list after getting his foot broken by a comebacker. While that is a fluke thing, he also dealt with shoulder issues last season.

At the end of the day, all teams have to assume some level of risk here because you can’t just not have any pitchers of value. However, many of these guys, including Skubal, have a ton of team control left and it is probably best to see if any of them can demonstrate that they can navigate multiple major league seasons and stay healthy before considering signing up for more.

One way that a Skubal extension could make more sense from the Tigers’ perspective is if it was a very team friendly deal. However, with Scott Boras as his agent, that is extremely unlikely for that to happen.   

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