Detroit Tigers: 6 bold predictions for the 2024 season

Spring training has officially started, signaling the unofficial beginning of the 2024 season. This will be an interesting year for the Detroit Tigers. They made several small, but impactful moves this offseason that should help this team win games in 2024.

However, they also have several young players already in house that they are banking on taking some pretty big leaps forward. Players like Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Tarik Skubal, and more are expected to be huge contributors for the Tigers this season.

Because of that, there's a chance the Tigers can make some noise in the AL Central this season. If everything goes right — which has a non-zero chance of happening — they could win the division. But everything, and I mean EVERYTHING has to go right, and recent history would suggest that's a very low possibility.

With spring training underway, it's time to make some predictions. But not just any predictions — it's time get bold. It's time for one of my personal favorite articles to write every year. Here's six bold predictions for the 2024 season.

Tarik Skubal finishes top-3 in AL Cy Young voting

Skubal was one of the best pitchers in baseball after returned from flexor tendon surgery on July 4. He had 2.80 ERA, a FIP of 2.00, a 3.3 fWAR, and a K/9 of 11.43. Those were all top 6 in the league, with his WAR and FIP being tops in all of baseball.

Because of that, there's been a quite a bit of hype around him this offseason, even from national outlets. And it is 100% justified. While he was rehabbing from surgery, he made an adjustment to his pitching mechanics ($$$) which allowed him to not only throw more strikes and throw harder, but put less stress on his arm. He was able to get the best of both worlds: improve his pitching ability, and decrease the risk of injury.

Given all of this, and the fact that he's just entering the prime of his career, I think there's a very real chance Skubal finished top-3 in American League Cy Young voting in November. He could very well be the best left-handed starter in the AL. That's how good be could be.

Now I could get really wild here and say he'll win the award outright, but that would be a bit of a stretch. Gerrit Cole still exists, after all. And now some guy named Corbin Burnes is in the American League — in a contract year, I might add. It would take a lot for Skubal to be the AL Cy Young award winner in 2024 just with those two as his competition alone.

But top-3? Oh, that's a definite possibility. If he stays healthy, Tarik Skubal should finally be that ace that we all thought he could be.

Jack Flaherty won't last the season

I've been very vocal about how I don't care for the Jack Flaherty signing. There are just so many signs that he's cooked. I'm so certain in my feelings that I don't think he will end the 2024 with the Detroit Tigers.

Flaherty will either get hurt, or underperformance — if you can even call it that — will force the Tigers to pull the plug. He is signed to a one-year deal, so it's very easy for the Tigers to move on from him and eat the remaining money.

The Tigers have plenty of young starters that will be forced to start the year in Triple-A that deserve more innings that Flaherty anyhow. Reese Olson and Sawyer Gipson-Long are far more deserving of innings that a 28-year-old with a history of shoulder injuries.

One way or another, Jack Flaherty will not be a Tiger by season's end. If somehow he ends up being serviceable and lasts the season, I'll be happy to eat my words. But I'll believe it when I see it.

Parker Meadows has a 4-WAR season

This might be the most bold prediction on this list. Meadows racked up 1.0 fWAR in 37 games as a below average hitter last season because his defense in centerfield was that good. If he's able to have a wRC+ over 100 and keep up that defense for full season, him getting to 4 WAR on the year is a possibility.

Meadows had a 93 wRC+ in those 37 games last season. This was even after he struggled during the first half of September. Even then, the at-bats were still solid. He was still drawing his walks. The strikeouts are always going to be there, but he's also shown a great ability to work deep into counts.

But over the final two weeks of the 2023 regular season, Meadows slashed .280/.345/.480 with a 126 wRC+ and a .200 ISO in 55 plate appearances. It looked like he had figured something out, and it's part of why people like myself are so high on him for 2024.

It may not happen right away. He might not light it up right out the gate. But I think Parker Meadows is poised for a breakout season in 2024, and boy could the Tigers use it.

Justyn-Henry Malloy gets traded at the deadline

JHM was acquired in the Joe Jimenez trade at the Winter Meetings in 2022. Since then, he's gone through a bit of a roller coaster. At first, he seemed like the poster child for a Scott Harris guy: an absolute grinder who will walk at an insane rate. Early on in Triple-A, that appeared to be the case.

Then he struggled mightily in May. It looked like pitchers had figured something out on him. He was able to get it bck together still manage a pretty good season down in Toledo, but there was something else to worry about — his defense. It was bad, no matter where he played.

He was terrible at third base, and he didn't grade out much better in the outfield. Now, in order to make the Tigers Opening Day roster out of camp, he's going to have to keep hitting. Even then, I'm at the point where I'm no longer convinced his future is with the Detroit Tigers.

So, I'm going to say he gets moved at the trade deadline for an established bat. The Tigers don't really have a spot for him right now. Maybe he hits so well that the Tigers are forced to find a spot for him, but until he proves otherwise, JHM seems like trade bait.

The Tigers finish with a win total in the low-to-mid 80s, but just miss out on the playoffs

I had to include one team-based prediction here. I think the Tigers will prove that the end of last season wasn't a fluke. I think they'll continue to beat up on the bad teams in the AL Central like the White Sox and the Royals. But I also think they'll continue to struggle against quality opponents.

I think the pitching will be solid, especially the rotation. Other that Flaherty, this should be a nice starting five, with guys like Sawyer Gipson-Long still around for depth purposes. The bullpen should be better than last season.

Offensively, the addition of Colt Keith and the hopeful breakout of Parker Meadows should make up for the lack of production they'll get from third base. Mark Canha should provide a nice veteran presence to the lineup.

Last season, the Tigers won 78 games, which was more than most people expected. This season, they are projected to win around 75 games by PECOTA. Obviously that's not a perfect system, but it's one that many people take a lot of stock into.

Last year, I undershot on my prediction. I said they would go 72-90. This year, I'm thinking they'll win somwhere between 82-85 games and just miss out on a playoff spot. Last season, two teams made the playoffs with a record of 84-78. One of the those teams was the Arizona Diamonbacks, who went on to make the World Series.

However, I think the American League is still too top heavy for the Tigers to make it. Had they made a worthwhile addition the lineup, I would probably feel a bit differently. But for now, while I see an improvement, I don't see playoffs for the Detroit Tigers in 2024.