Mariners vs. Tigers prediction and odds for Friday, May 12 (Don't Believe the Tigers)

At 17-19, the Detroit Tigers are only three games back of the Twins for first place in the AL Central, and after taking two of three from the Guardians, they might be a good baseball team. Up next is the 18-19 Seattle Mariners who come in losers of their most recent series to the Rangers. The Mariners are in fourth place in the AL West.

Tonight is Game 1 of a three-game weekend series in Detroit, and it’ll be a matchup of lefties on the mound with Marco Gonzales on the bump for Seattle and Matthew Boyd taking the mound for Detroit. Gonzales comes in with a 4.70 ERA and a record of 2-0. Boyd is 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA.

Let’s get into the odds for this American League matchup. 

Mariners vs. Tigers odds, run line and total

Mariners vs. Tigers prediction and pick

It certainly looks like the Detroit Tigers might be a good baseball team, but I am not ready to say that the Detroit Tigers are a good baseball team. They have won their last three series including a sweep of the Mets and they are only two games under .500. As far as the AL Central goes that is a contending team and it’s a massive improvement from last season. However, the numbers say that they shouldn’t even be winning this much. 

The Tigers are 26th in run differential at -34, though at home they are only -5. They are 29th in OPS, 27th in home runs, and 28th in runs scored. They could survive that if they were a dominant pitching team, but they really aren’t that either. Detroit is 17th in ERA and has allowed the fourth most home runs. This team is winning games, but I don’t expect it to last long at all. Detroit’s top two hitters in terms of at-bats are Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, and while they are young improving players, they both have an OPS under .700.

With all that being said, I think that they could get another win tonight. Seattle is 29th in OPS against left-handed pitchers and Detroit is 19th. Julio Rodriguez is massively underperforming at the plate and Jarred Kelenic has been their best hitter. Kelenic has crushed lefties this season, but only has 30 at-bats in left-on-left situations, so I think runs will be tough to come by in this one. I’ll take the under at plus odds. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change