Three players facing make-or-break seasons for the Detroit Tigers

1. OF Akil Baddoo

I must admit, others were discussing the possibility of an Akil Baddoo sophomore slump. I did not see it. I felt Baddoo's plate discipline was strong and his speed would allow him to impact the game in ways that may or may not show up on the stat sheet, but would nevertheless keep him a valuable MLB commodity.

At his best, Baddoo is a scrappy, 'dirt bag' type outfielder who sprays the ball around, takes the extra base and can surprise with his power. The lefty's strikeout percentage increased while his exit velocities decreased--a challenge for a hitter that was already in the bottom six percent of the league in 2021. While Baseball Reference still considered Baddoo above replacement level, Fangraphs had Baddoo at a -0.2 WAR across his 73 games last year.

The climb for Baddoo to regular playing time in Detroit in 2023 is complicated. The Tigers now have left-handed hitters in Riley Greene and Austin Meadows occupying two-thirds of their outfield, and new trade acquisition Matt Vierling is almost certainly a lock to get regular playing time in right field. Additionally, Kerry Carpenter has shown the ability to hang with big-league pitching and he likely has an inside track to occupy a bench spot. This doesn't even factor in Eric Haase, who is also likely to see some outfield time too.

Baddoo and Carpenter both have multiple options remaining, so the club could afford to stash either or both for some time as necessary, but if Baddoo struggles in Toledo and room needs to be made on the 40-man roster, he may ultimately be the odd man out.

2. INF Zack Short

I'm not convinced the Tigers ever saw an everyday future for Short when they acquired him in the trade that sent Cameron Maybin to Chicago. Short was ranked as the 21st prospect in the Cubs' system when he was traded to Detroit, with the idea maybe Short would be a utility middle infielder they could cycle through perhaps after Willi Castro or Niko Goodrum became expensive.

Short saw a decent period with the team in 2021 but just seven games in 2022 and was ultimately passed up by Ryan Kreidler for a late-season call-up. Beyond his defensive versatility, perhaps Short's saving grace is his ability to take the free pass. Short works counts and took a whopping 88 walks in 128 games in Toledo last season. Unfortunately, he also struck out 149 times.

Cutting down on his swing-and-miss will be crucial next season, especially if Kreidler cracks the opening day roster, considering he'd be most likely to fill in for Baez in the event of injury in that scenario. Short's most likely role remains the Harold Castro-like assignment, and while he'll never possess Castro's bat-to-ball skills, cutting strikeouts is a must to see his way back to Detroit.

3. 1B Spencer Torkelson

Torkelson, unlike the others listed above, aren't on the 40-man fringe. Regardless of what happens for him in 2023, it's fair to assume his spot on the roster is safe at season's end. However, if Torkelson essentially repeats his rookie season, he cannot be the starting first baseman for the Detroit Tigers in 2024. Hard stop.

I do still ultimately see an everyday profile for Spencer Torkelson, and given the financial investment the organization made in making him the first overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, he will get every chance to realize such a role for the organization. No, Torkelson doesn't need to have an all-star season. But a .230/.310/.380 line with 20 home runs is a pretty reasonable ask to justify a starting role moving forward.

It's a perplexing profile--he doesn't have the prototypical first base size, yet he's more athletic and a better runner than the average first baseman. His exit velocities are strong, but he hit just .203 in 2022 and his xBA doesn't even suggest bad luck. He takes his walks and he rarely chases out of the zone, but his passive nature haunts him at times. To top it off, his ISO is .115 on pitches middle/middle and he's hitting just .212 in the same zone.

It's not time to panic with Spencer Torkelson, but it is time to be cautious. If improvement doesn't happen in 2023, it leaves the organization to develop a different plan for the position in the near-term. He may not lose his job in any event, but he'll most certainly lose his role.