Projecting a contract (and new destinations) for Casey Mize as he enters Tigers walk year

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize is coming off a career-best campaign. He was an American League All-Star last season and is set to hit free agency after this one, a fact that he is well aware of. If he has a repeat of his 2025 campaign, he could cash in with a nice contract.

There were some who believed that the Tigers should move on from Mize prior to the 2025 season, and it is not hard to figure out why. He had been inconsistent and average at best through his first five big league seasons and was coming off a very meh 2024 campaign in which he pitched to a 4.49 ERA in 102 innings.

But the Tigers were wise to give Mize another shot in the rotation last year, and it paid off. He was very solid, posting a 3.87 ERA in 28 starts and 149 innings pitched on the year. Mize was decent in two playoff starts last season and ultimately made the Tigers regret declining their club option on him in 2024 for $3.1 million. Instead, they agreed on a $6.15 million deal for the 2026 season to avoid arbitration.

Casey Mize could have a big pay raise when he hits free agency

Mize can potentially make much more than that after this season if he has a big year. The 28-year-old enters 2026 with the pitch mix that he refined last year so if he can stay healthy it would not come as a shock if he puts up similar numbers to his 2025 output.

Where might he end up if he has a similar season? Adrian Houser, a pitcher with a similar profile and career to Mize, had a solid 2025 season with the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays and cashed in with a two-year, $22 million deal with the San Francisco Giants.

It is entirely possible that Mize could get a similar deal, perhaps even more depending on his market, if he posts an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range and makes at least 25 starts. He would probably even be closer to $15 million per year given his higher strikeout rate, but somewhere in the $10-15 million range on a two-year deal would make sense.

The Giants would actually make sense as a destination in free agency for Mize. They have been reluctant to splurge on free agent starting pitchers in the past, so Mize will probably be more in the range they are comfortable with. Two members of San Francisco's rotation, Robbie Ray and Tyler Mahle, will be free agents after 2026 as well — so Mize could be a nice addition.

Maybe the Toronto Blue Jays would make sense, too, since Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber are set to be free agents and José Berríos has an opt-out.

Of course, a reunion with the Tigers cannot be ruled out as Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Justin Verlander are all under contract only for this season.

Mize may be wishing that last season was his contract year given he was an All-Star, but he could still get a very nice payday if he delivers another good year in 2026.