Tigers already seeing the effect of rejecting Casey Mize's 2025 option

The Detroit Tigers had a $3.1 million club option for Casey Mize’s 2025 season built into his previous contract — a carryover from his pre-arbitration deal structured to cover his post-Tommy John return year. Declining that option was a signal that Detroit wanted to re-set his value through arbitration instead of committing early.

The Tigers likely believed Mize hadn’t yet proven durable or consistent enough in 2024 to justify locking in that $3.1 million figure, and that they could re-negotiate for less. However, it turned into a classic example of how trying to “save” a little money in the short term can cost much more in the long run.

When the sides went to exchange numbers before a hearing, Mize’s camp filed higher than Detroit’s initial offer, and the sides settled at $2.34 million — about $760,000 less than the option they had declined. On paper, that looked like a small “win” for Scott Harris and the front office.

But arbitration works on year-to-year escalation: every new salary builds on the last. By resetting Mize's base lower in 2025 rather than keeping the $3.1 million option, the Tigers reset his future arbitration platform artificially low — yet Mize’s actual performance in 2025 (healthy season, mid-rotation stability, innings volume) drove his 2026 projection up to $5.4 million anyway.

Had Detroit simply exercised the option, Mize’s 2026 figure would have escalated from a higher starting point, but the total cost across both years would almost certainly have been smaller because of compounding percentages.

Inside the math of the miss on Tigers' contract negotiations with Casey Mize

The crucial point is risk and perception. Detroit gained no meaningful savings in 2025 and still ended up facing a higher arbitration ask one year later. Moreover, if Mize stays healthy and productive again in 2026, his 2027 free agency figure is going to certainly price himself out of Detroit as the team needs to find a way to extend Tarik Skubal.

By declining Mize's option, the Tigers essentially removed cost certainty for a pitcher they still value and signaled a lack of faith just before he proved he could stay healthy. Perhaps the smarter thing to do was to offer a cost-controlled 2026 option to Mize upon exercising his 2025 option. Let's say they avoided arbitration altogether with a two-year, $6 million contract heading into the 2025 season. For someone like Mize, he almost certainly would have accepted that. You might say hindsight is 2020, but if they were willing to pay $2.5 million for him in 2025, then what's a few more million for pitching depth in 2026?

In other words, the Tigers bet on short-term thrift and wound up paying for it. It's not a bad thing because players performing well helps your team, but looking to save about $700K actually ended up costing them around $2 million.