Recent Tarik Skubal contract prediction should have Tigers ready to pay up now

There's been little word on the "Tarik Skubal contract extension" front since the first disheartening update at the beginning of the offseason: the Tigers had opened up talks about an extension, but their offer reportedly wasn't even close to good enough. Since then, Skubal's addressed extension questions by saying that he'd rather keep those things private, and he's joined the MLBPA's executive subcommittee, which will make any of the front office's efforts to lock him down even harder.

It's unclear what the Tigers have already offered him and what Skubal is seeking, but given that he's represented by Scott Boras, it's likely that his asking price will be pretty far outside of the Tigers' usual realm of comfort. They did, however, agree to give him $10.15 million to avoid arbitration this year, so they might actually be willing to go full throttle here.

Until talks actually get serious, we'll only be able to speculate on what Skubal might get. CBS Sports' Mike Axisa named Skubal as a top-10 extension candidate, and his proposed deal actually seems pretty doable for Detroit.

"Give him $20 million for 2026 (final arbitration year) and $28 million from 2027-32 (free-agent years), and that's a seven-year contract worth $188 million." Sign us up! Now!

CBS Sports predicts seven-year, $188 million extension for Tigers' Tarik Skubal

If the Tigers could give Javy Báez six years and $140 million, then they should be willing to pony up for the reigning Cy Young winner. Of course, that deal was doled out before Scott Harris assumed control of the front office, and the Tigers' days of spending to that degree are over. But if anyone should be an exception to the rule, it should be Skubal.

Axisa likened an extension for Skubal to Jacob deGrom's five-year, $137.5 million extension with the Mets in 2019, when he was also two years away from hitting free agency, and factored in Skubal being three years younger than deGrom was in 2019.

The last time the Tigers doled out a huge extension to a pitcher, they gave Justin Verlander seven years and $180 million in 2013, which is a whopping $243.86 million when adjusted for inflation. Skubal was brilliant in 2024 but definitely hasn't reached the same heights as Verlander did — Rookie of the Year, MVP, Cy Young, six-time All-Star — by the time he got his extension.

However, if Skubal manages to be as good this year as he was last year, his price is just going to keep going up and it will be harder to re-sign him. If seven years and $188 million really could get the job done, then the Tigers should do it right this very second.