Reported Tarik Skubal contract 'gap' is misleading, but Tigers can't be trusted

The Detroit Tigers have quite the conundrum brewing with Tarik Skubal. The 2024 and presumptive 2025 Cy Young Award winner is entering his final year of team control and set to hit free agency next winter. If the Tigers have any hope of building the contender of their dreams, they need to make sure that doesn't happen.

There's only one other pitcher in Skubal's stratosphere, and that's Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes. Every other top-flight starter in the game is just a notch below the game's best lefty.

That means the 28-year-old deserves to be paid handsomely, and maybe set a record in the process. To their credit, the Tigers are actively working to get a deal done to keep the superstar in Detroit long-term. However, according to MLB Insider Jon Heyman, there isn't a gap between the Tigers and Skubal; there's a canyon.

The Tigers and Tarik Skubal are very far apart on a new contract, and both sides have taken up ridiculous positions

According to Heyman, the chasm between the two sides is a whopping $250 million, though he states that the figures are from a year ago.

"Word is, a year ago the Tigers offered Skubal well less than the $170M deal signed a bit later by Garrett Crochet. While there’s no belief Skubal named his price, his obvious comp is Gerrit Cole, who signed six years ago for a record $324M, and with prices up (Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander $43.33M a year, Juan Soto $51M), the baseline ask for Skubal is seen as $400M," Heyman wrote.

The only caveat here is that if Skubal didn't name his price, then why is it being called a $250 million gap? It can't be a foregone conclusion that he's getting $400 million, but it can be said the Tigers are ridiculous for offering him a deal south of $200 million.

Even then, it's clear to see that neither is a serious offer nor expectation. Skubal should definitely take the title of largest contract ever given to a left-handed starter away from Max Fried, who signed an eight-year $218 million pact with the New York Yankees last offseason.

His sights should be set on Gerrit Cole's nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees, and Skubal should realistically ask for a bit more. Cole was the same age at the time that Skubal will be next offseason, but Skubal will likely hit the free-agent market with at least two more Cy Youngs than Cole, who didn't win his first until 2023.

But $400 million? That's a leap. As good as Skubal is now, it's a foregone conclusion that the last couple of years of whatever deal he ends up signing will become an albatross. That's the price of doing business when you're talking about a true, fire-breathing ace.

However, Cole's contract is also somewhat of a cautionary tale. The right-hander made it through his first four seasons in the Bronx unscathed, but missed time with injuries in 2024 and then went down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery in spring training, erasing all of his 2025 campaign. The Yankees will get him back in 2026 and have him for three more seasons, but what kind of performance they can expect out of him moving forward is a mystery.

Arm injuries are a fact of life for pitchers, which is why at the top end their contracts pale in comparison to the massive deals handed out to star sluggers.

At the same time, though, Detroit needs to remember what Skubal means for the franchise. After an historic collapse that saw them back into the playoffs, Skubal took the mound against their division nemesis, the Cleveland Guardians (who were the catalyst for their collapse), in Game 1 of the ALWCS. He dominated them to the tune of 7 2/3 innings and 14 K's in a 2-1 Tigers' victory, which set the tone.

If the standoff rages on into the meat of the offseason, the Tigers are going to have to stare down the reality that they may have to trade the ace to avoid being left with nothing. That would be a shame for both sides. Detroit would take a huge step back in the pecking order of AL contenders, while Skubal likely won't find that his hypothetical new team will be any more willing to cough up $400 million.

The best thing for both sides is for cooler heads to prevail. The club needs to recognize Skubal's worth and pay him accordingly, and Skubal needs to understand that he can only extract the maximum that the market will allow. That won't be $400 million, but it should be a record-setting deal nonetheless.