Revisiting Colt Keith’s much-criticized Tigers contract extension after 3-homer game

In January of 2024, back when Colt Keith was a top-100 prospect with big-league dreams, the Detroit Tigers signed their would-be third baseman to a six-year contract worth just over $28.6 million. Look, it's not our money, but Keith still has a lot to prove to live up to even that price tag. While he entered the week with an OPS under .700, Keith showed signs of life on Monday, making Tigers history in the process.

Keith hit three home runs in the Tigers win over the Astros. Frankly, it's the kind of power Tigers fans have been dying to see from him since he signed his deal back in 2024. At 24 years old, Keith still has plenty of potential, as he became the youngest Tiger since Al Kaline to hit three home runs in a game. It's his inconsistency, though, that frustrates most of the fanbase. One game can create dozens of storylines — and perhaps even draw some lofty comparisons to Mr. Tiger himself — and the next Keith isn't even in the lineup.

Colt Keith hasn't lived up to his Tigers hype

With three home runs on Monday, Keith now has six on the season. His OPS jumped to .701, which is still below the league average. With a 0.2 bWAR through 66 games played, Keith has hardly been a blip on the scouting report opposing teams read about the Tigers lineup. Usually when a former top prospect earns his stripes, it's not this surprising.

“I was seeing it really well today," Keith said following the game. "I was on time for the heater, was seeing spin, was seeing the seams on the baseball, and I felt like I was in a great spot all day. I just want to re-create that, do that tomorrow, and get consistent with that swing. Seeing it well enough to be able to hold the hips back and see that slider away [from Abreu] and just throw [the bat] that way and hit it hard that way means I’m in a good spot.”

MLB players live in the moment, but in the case of Keith it's not that he's unwilling to look past one defining game, but that he cannot use it as a springboard. Just one day after hitting three home runs, AJ Hinch opted to bench him in favor of Hao-Yu Lee. Scheduled off day or not, that should tell you all you need to know.

So far in his big-league career, Keith hasn't been as productive as most everyday players at his position. His contract extension sure seemed like a good idea at the time, as it bought out his arbitration years and instead paid him an affordable fixed rate, but even if you compare the 24-year-old to other third basemen who make just a shade under $5 million per season, there are some upgrades to be found.

The Tigers haven't received the Keith breakout they were hoping for when they extended him back in 2024. That's one of the risks of buying out arbitration deals, as there's a good chance Detroit could've saved some money in mediation and spent it elsewhere.

A Colt Keith breakthrough has been a long time coming. Don't be surprised if his three-homer game is a memory in a vacuum rather than a sign that his hard work is paying off.

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