Riley Greene’s worrisome regression might force Tigers into uncomfortable territory

One could say that the Detroit Tigers' offseason was a bit uneven. Early on, the club quickly took care of business by retaining Gleyber Torres via the qualifying offer and fortifying the bullpen with the Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen signings. Then, for a long period of time, it was radio silence until the club struck deals with Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander to plump up the rotation.

What's lost in this is the lack of firepower added to the lineup, and the subsequent pressure it will put on Riley Greene. For all the pieces that there are to like, Detroit had a middle-of-the-pack offense last season. The club ranked 11th in runs scored (758), 12th in OPS (.730), and 10th in homers (198). The Achilles heel was the strikeouts, which came in at the fourth-worst clip in the majors at 23.9%.

Greene was the engine that drove the train. His 36 homers and .806 OPS led the team. It was a big step forward for the 25-year-old, who had already made another substantial leap the previous season. Without a significant offensive addition, the Tigers will be counting on him once again to make another jump forward towards superstardom, but there were some worrisome negative trends bubbling underneath the surface last year that might make that difficult.

Riley Greene's concerning regression could torpedo the Tigers' lineup

First, let's address the faults that are easy to see. The major one is the strikeouts. Greene set a franchise record with 201 Ks last season, and the issue manifested itself a couple of times in the postseason, making it hard to truly view him as an offensive cornerstone.

After all, you don't often see superstar sluggers being lifted for pinch hitters in the playoffs, but that's exactly what AJ Hinch did with Greene at key moments last postseason in order to take advantage of platoon matchups. Then, in the thrilling, yet bitterly disappointing, 15-inning affair that saw the Tigers eliminated at the hands of the Seattle Mariners, Greene and the rest of the heart of Detroit's lineup went 0-23 with 10 Ks.

He'll need to improve there, but his regressions in other areas last season could have an even greater trickle-down effect on the rest of the Tigers' lineup in 2026.

First, Greene was noticeably slower last season. In 2024, his sprint speed was slightly above average, registering in the 59th percentile. Last year, that fell to a 31st percentile mark. As a result, Detroit stopped using him in center field, which will put more pressure on Parker Meadows to perform. If it declines further, we could see more DH days for Greene, which might impact Kerry Carpenter's ability to get at-bats. Greene needs to be able to play the field for the lineup to reach maximum potency.

The second concerning data point was his hit tool regression from the first half to the second half of last season. Strikeouts were prevalent throughout the year, but in the first half, Greene batted .284. From the All-Star break onward, he hit just .218.

With a 34th percentile walk rate, Greene is going to rely on the base hit to get on base. If his contact skills evaporate, he becomes a true all-or-nothing kind of hitter, and that's a hard thing to build a lineup around.

The Tigers desperately need him to reverse these trends in 2026. He needs to be able to play defense every day and make enough contact to the point where his low-walk, heavy-strikeout approach plays. If not, Detroit will soon regret not adding an impact bat to the lineup.