Talk of the Tigers trading Tarik Skubal is missing one key issue

Baseball is a nice lesson in taking your lumps. Even a team that wins 100 games loses 62. That's a lot of losing. And losing is not fun.

The Detroit Tigers have gotten well acquainted with losing lately. They're 2-14 since May 4. It's been seven games since they scored more than three runs.

They are 5-11 in one-run games. History tells us that's a little bit of bad luck. Watching the games makes that idea ring pretty true. Mind you we're not talking about a great team getting unlucky. Their roster right now is not a great team. It is a team you're just hoping treads water well enough for long enough to get the injured players back in the lineup or on the mound. But there is at least a little luck factor at play.

As we've said in this newsletter before, there's an execution factor too. There are mental mistakes made. There are physical mistakes made. The team isn't helping itself any.

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On Thursday the Tigers lost 3-1 to the Cleveland Guardians. It's not that they didn't get runners on base. In fact, they stranded nine of them. But they're just consistently not getting the job done.

There are still 111 games left. That's plenty to get back into the race. We've seen the past two years that the first few months are just a warmup for the final two. And if they don't ...

Would the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal?

Tarik Skubal has wowed everyone with his quick recovery from having loose bodies in his elbow surgically removed. He was back on the mound on Thursday, ramping up his pitch count and throwing nearly at game velocity. Tigers manager AJ Hinch shot down the idea he could go straight back to the mound without a rehab start (that's good), but it looks like Skubal should be back pitching for the Tigers sometime in June. That's plenty of time to help the team. 

If the rest of the team can't help itself, however, then Skubal's help could come in the form of a trade. FanSided's MLB insider, Robert Murray, wrote about what the return might look like should that happen.

MLB executives varied on the exacts, but the rough sketch seems to be one or two top-100 level prospects, depending how high they ranked. One big issue, executives told Murray, is that we really don't know how Skubal's return from injury will go until he is back starting. The surgery alone is enough to hurt his value, and the short window (about two months plus playoffs if he's traded at the trade deadline) plus his salary cut into what the Tigers will be able to ask.

I'll be honest: if the Tigers are not going to be able to get something back in return that makes it worth while, trading Skubal for a lottery ticket and hoping for the best is going to be a bad look. There's certainly an argument that getting something for him is better than getting nothing. You hear it often. People already think the club made a huge mistake by not trading him. Most of those people do not bleed Tiger orange. Their opinions are strictly academic here.

From a fan perspective, it wears on you if you see your team trade a beloved star for a small hope. We saw that before in Detroit 2016-17 with the paltry returns mostly turning into dust. I'd rather have Skubal in Detroit for two extra months than prospects who will ultimately do little to nothing at all. Even high-ranked prospects are at best a hope. When the odds get longer, perhaps the better move is just to keep fans engaged and send them a signal the team cares about the players as much as they do.

If the Tigers can get a great package in return, it's one conversation. If we've reached the point of doing a deal to do a deal, that will be to blame when fan interest wanes yet again.

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