Tarik Skubal needs to end confounding trend vs Mariners in do-or-die Game 5

Tarik Skubal will take the ball for the Detroit Tigers in Friday's winner-take-all Game 5 of the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners. Normally, that would have Detroit fans breathing a sigh of relief; but Skubal hasn't always been his dominant self when facing the Mariners this year.

In his first appearance against Seattle this season on April 2, Skubal gave up three runs on six hits while striking out eight in 5 2/3 innings pitched. On July 11, he gave up four runs on four hits with five strikeouts through five innings. Finally, in ALDS Game 2 on Sunday, he surrendered a pair of runs on five hits with nine strikeouts through seven innings. All three games were Tigers losses.

Skubal's track record against the Mariners tells a frustrating story: he’s pitched well enough to keep Detroit in every game, but he hasn’t been able to finish the job or get the run support to convert those outings into wins. That makes Friday’s Game 5 an inflection point for both his personal reputation and the Tigers’ postseason hopes.

Tarik Skubal faces defining moment vs Mariners in ALDS Game 5

Friday's game is exactly the kind that defines an ace – winner-take-all, on the road, against a team that’s had your number all season long. Skubal’s individual stat lines against Seattle show quality, but not dominance, and the Tigers have fallen short each time. To cement his status as a true top-tier postseason arm, Skubal needs to be the one who stops the bleeding rather than the guy who pitches “well enough” in another loss.

Across Skubal's three starts, Seattle’s hitters have shown they can hang in against his fastball-changeup mix, especially the second and third times through the order. They’re not crushing him, but they’re timing him up just enough to do damage when it matters. If Skubal can vary his pitch usage to keep them off balance, perhaps he can finally flip the script.

Of course, not all the blame falls on Skubal. In all three losses to the Mariners, the Tigers' lineup has failed to provide him with enough run support. A dominant early statement from Skubal can energize the offense and quiet a raucous Seattle crowd. In a Game 5 setting, tempo and tone matter as much as execution.

Skubal’s 2025 will likely win him another Cy Young award, but to many, his résumé still lacks a defining postseason win. This is his moment to prove he can rise above and perform under the sharpest pressure.

In short, Friday isn’t just about Skubal pitching well again. It’s about finally converting that dominance into a tangible result – breaking the psychological hold the Mariners have over him and showing he can deliver the kind of signature postseason performance that turns “good” into greatness.