Tigers' 2026 arbitration projections may not help with Tarik Skubal extension talks

The Tigers will (hopefully) have three more weeks before they really have to start thinking about arbitration salaries and free agency and so on, but over 2/3 of the league are going through personnel shakeups and have a head start on organizing their financials for the impending offseason. When the time comes, the Tigers are going to have more work to do than most when it comes to arbitration especially.

Detroit has 14 arb-eligible players this offseason; only the Astros, Rays, and Royals have more. Tyler Holton, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter are all entering their first year of eligibility.

MLB Trade Rumors' comprehensive list of projected arbitration salaries dropped on Monday, and they tend to be pretty on-target every year.

Tarik Skubal's expected raise leads the pack not only among Tigers players, but among all arb-eligible pitchers (Randy Arozarena is the only position player expected to make more) at $17.8 million, but we should remember that the Tigers gave him $2 million more than MLBTR predicted for this season.

Of course, Tigers fans would much prefer if Chris Ilitch sat Skubal down and handed him a blank check after the season was over, but the odds of an extension coming during the offseason seems low. And, given some of the expected huge raises for Greene, Torkelson, and Carpenter specifically, Ilitch might find that payroll is getting too high for his penny-pinching liking.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts massive arbitration raises for Tigers' Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, and more

Greene is expected to make $6.6 million, Torkelson $5.1 million, and Carpenter $3.5 million to avoid arbitration. That's $15.2 million for three players who cost $2.39 million this season. And that's not even counting the pretty significant hikes for Casey Mize and Will Vest.

Compared to the top five payrolls in baseball, Greene, Torkelson, and Carpenter's salaries are still chump change, but it wouldn't be surprising if it places even more financial constraints upon Scott Harris and the Tigers' front office during the offseason.

If Ilitch and Harris might think twice about spending $15 million on a one-year deal for a free agent because of the added payroll for their homegrown guys, it doesn't feel realistic that they would offer Skubal a competitive enough extension figure to at least get a conversation started, especially after Ilitch's non-answer about extending Skubal after the Tigers' Wild Card win.

The team did surprise everyone with their significant offer to Alex Bregman last offseason, but a contract for Skubal is going to take a lot more. Even if he deserves it — and fans deserve to see him in a Tigers uniform for a long, long time — it might be too rich for Detroit's blood with everything else coming down the pipeline.