Tigers fans are begging relievers to outperform bleak FanGraphs projections

One of the defining characteristics of the Detroit Tigers' epic second-half collapse in 2025 was the failings of their bullpen. While fixing that bullpen seemed to be Scott Harris's sole focus, at the expense of other important needs, it has been proven time and time again that the moves he made were an epic failure, for the most part.

One of the biggest hopes fans have as the 2026 season kicks off is not repeating the same mistakes. Detroit didn't do much over the winter to believe beyond a shadow of a doubt that this unit would be better, but it's hard to disagree that re-signing Kyle Finnegan or bringing in Kenley Jansen weren't solid moves.

The projections for the bullpen are painting a bleak picture, bringing some doubt to the forefront and raising the question if once again the Tigers haven't done enough.

Projections indicate that the Tigers might not have infused enough high-end talent into their bullpen

Let's take a look at how the ZiPS projections for ERA for each of Detroit's relievers shake out and then consider what that could mean for 2026.

There's some good and some bad here. Guys like Will Vest, Brant Hurter, and Tyler Holton are all projected to have decent seasons by ERA. None stands out as spectacular, but if things shake out this way, they'll be the last of our complaints. This trio all have years of team control and could be building blocks for the future as well, though none of the three stands out as a true centerpiece (though Vest could come close).

The concern starts with Jansen and Finnegan. Jansen is working towards solidifying his Hall of Fame case and pursuing his 500th save. While his 2.59 ERA was encouraging — the 38-year-old still has some gas left in the tank — there are some warning signs that he might actually be running on fumes.

After sliding for a while in recent years, Jansen's strikeout rate fell pretty dramatically last year, dropping to 24.4% from 28.4% in 2024. In his peak years, the big righty was a demon, sitting in the high 30% range and topping 40% four times throughout his career. In addition, his 85.2% left on base rate indicates a high degree of luck, and his 3.73 xERA and 3.98 FIP aren't far off from his 2026 projected ERA of 4.15.

For Finnegan, this mark would be the worst of his career, but it shouldn't come as a complete surprise. The 34-year-old has long outperformed his peripherals, and with a 4.05 career FIP, this might be the year that his luck comes to an end. If Jansen and Finnegan disappoint, the back-end of the Tigers' bullpen will collapse yet again.

The rest of the unit is chock-full of questions. Non-roster invitee Enmanuel De Jesus has made the team thanks to an absolutely dominant spring, but there isn't a ton of stock you can really put into spring training stats, especially when we're talking about just nine innings pitched, as is the case with De Jesus.

The last-minute signing of Connor Seabold doesn't inspire a ton of confidence in the Tigers' depth, and his inclusion on the Opening Day roster is troublesome.

Overall, it's looking like there are no true stars, a couple of declining veterans, a few dart throws, and a solid but unspectacular trio in the middle of which the rest revolves around. If this is truly how things play out, the situation is going to get dicey really fast, and fans will once again be wishing that Scott Harris did more.