Tigers Winter Meetings Debate: Tatsuya Imai vs Ranger Suárez in free agency

The Tigers' reported interest in top free agent starter Ranger Suárez was music to fans' ears. The rotation doesn't absolutely require another starter, but if they're destined to lose Tarik Skubal to free agency after 2026, they're going to need a replacement long-term ace. And a Skubal-Suárez 1-2 in 2026 could put the Tigers in an even better position to contend.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic also predicted that Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai will land in Detroit. Bowden is often loud and wrong, but we can cherry pick when it suits us.

If the Tigers are willing to spend on one of Imai or Suárez, who are expected to make similar amounts of money (at least in AAV) this offseason, which one should they go harder on?

Tigers Winter Meetings Debate: Tatsuya Imai vs Ranger Suárez in free agency

Predicted contract

Contract predictions tend to differ vastly from outlet to outlet, but there seems to be a general agreement that both Imai and Suárez will land a deal with a $23-24 million AAV, with anywhere between 6-8 years for the 27-year-old Imai and 4-6 for the 30-year-old Suárez.

Imai's age could make him a more attractive option, but we also can't forget about the $22.125 million posting fee that the team who lands him will have to pay out to the NPB's Seibu Lions. Suárez gets a slight edge here because of that, and because of the fact that the Tigers usually prefer shorter-term deals.

• Winner: Tie (but Suárez gets a slight edge)

Health/Age

Suárez only became a full-time reliever in the second half of 2021, but he is still yet to pitch more than 160 innings in a single season. Imai was injured for a lot of 2022, but he pitched anywhere between 158 and 173 1/3 innings in 2021 and 2023-2025, easily surpassing Suárez in the same amount of time.

Some Japanese pitchers have struggled to remain healthy after making the transition to MLB but, with the three-year age difference between him and Suárez, this one has to go to Imai.

• Winner: Imai

Experience

Imai has pitched more innings over nine years in NPB than Suárez has in eight MLB seasons, but we can't forget about the learning curve that comes with any international pitcher's transition to MLB. Neither Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Roki Sasaki, the last two high-profile pitchers to make the move, had a particularly easy go of things in their rookie seasons.

Japanese pitchers are still thought of as relatively unknown quantities, which makes giving them long-term deals such a gamble. Yamamoto's 12-year, $325 million deal was extraordinary, but he was coming over with more accolades and more consistently excellent performance.

Suárez may have fewer career innings, but we know how his stuff plays against opposing major league hitters, and we know how good he can be in the postseason. From an experience standpoint, he'd be the safer one to bet on.

• Winner: Suárez

Stuff

This one is also a toss-up. Again, we know what we're getting with Suárez, and he's an incredibly off speed-dependent starter, which is right up the Tigers' alley. His four most-used pitches in 2025 were his sinker, changeup, cutter, and curveball. There's work to do on the sinker, as it's oscillated wildly year-over-year from being unhittable to being a little too sluggable.

But, importantly, Suárez is also a lefty. Putting him behind Tarik Skubal against the lefty-heavy Guardians offense could make the Tigers' road to the top of the AL Central that much easier.

We have to depend more on scouting reports — which could be a little overblown, and that could fall apart as soon as he has to face MLB players — for Imai. In 2025 (1.92 ERA, 163 2/3 innings), he threw his 94.8 MPH fastball almost half of the time. He also has a slider (33%), changeup (10%), splitter (4%), Vulcan change, and curveball (2% each). His whiff rates on all of his secondary pitches are outstanding, and some of them have such minute differences in velocity that hitters could be bamboozled.

This is a tough one, but we'll give it to Imai, who also had the better strikeout rate through nine (9.8 for Imai, 8.6 for Suárez) and drastically lower strikeout rate through nine (5.6 versus 8.8).

• Winner: Imai

Long story short? Signing either of these players would be a massive win for the Tigers. It's just about preference at this point.