Gooden’s later career should give us a little insight into Porcello’s situation, though. And though we all know about his later downward spiral, that’s not what I’m referring to – I mean his career starting in 1986. Gooden’s two highest WAR totals were in his first and second years. His highest K/9 was as a rookie, his second highest was in his second year. His career didn’t go downhill right away, either. He stayed an ace until, at the very least, the age of 28. He just never matched what he did in year 2. He’s certainly not the only pitcher to blow away the competition in his second year, Tim Lincecum won the Cy Young in his 2nd as well. Granted, Lincecum was 24 when that happened unlike Porcello at 21 in 2010 – which is why I bring up Gooden to begin with. Gooden did not continue to ‘develop’ in the statistical sense beyond his second year – even though he was only 20 at the time. Gooden’s age 24 season was no match for his own age 20 season, or Lincecum’s age 24 season for that matter. Despite his youth Porcello is not a safe bet (as a pitcher) to develop into something he isn’t already – his youth simply sends a signal of unusual talent to begin with, which ought to be played out in unusual performance to date.