Dan Szymborski, creator of the computer generated ZiPS projections, is releasing his projected statistics this year in partnership with FanGraphs on a team-by-team basis. Today’s release was the Detroit Tigers.
There are way too many charts of data to do a copy and paste here (follow this link to see the full post), but here are some of the highlights:
Oct 16, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) at bat during game three of the 2012 ALCS against the New York Yankees at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Miguel Cabrera is projected to be a seven WAR player – that would be his third season in a row at that level – which would again put him in the MVP discussion. ZiPS projects him for 35 home runs and a .313/.394/.561 triple slash line. That would be both the lowest batting average and slugging percentage he’s had in three seasons, but projection systems are by nature conservative (the good ones will always contain some regression toward league average).
ZiPS appears to be a bit wary of Victor Martinez after missing 2012 due to injury. His projected .286/.339/.431 would represent a career low in average, and near-career lows in on-base percentage and slugging. He’s “only” projected to be a 1.2 WAR player, but that still would represent a two win upgrade over Delmon Young’s 2012 campaign.
Justin Verlander is projected for a very nice 3.09 ERA, but no other member of the rotation is projected to come out under 3.95. Both Doug Fister and Max Scherzer project there, with Anibal Sancez (4.23) and Rick Porcello (4.73) coming out somewhat higher. ZiPS likes Drew Smyly a good bit, projecting a 4.20 ERA. Rookie closer Brunce Rondon’s minor league numbers must not translate well as ZiPS has him floundering with an ERA of 5.60.
Adding up the projected WAR for the nine starting position players (and DH), the starting pitching rotation, and the bullpen, the Tigers combine for roughly 46 wins above replacement. This translates to a probably-non-ZiPS-sanctioned win total projection of about 90 or 91 team wins.
Again, head over to FanGraphs to read the entire post (written up by Carson Cistulli) and view the projected stats for each of the Tigers’ players.