The Detroit Tigers’ Five Biggest Plays of the ALDS

Oct 10, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera (middle) celebrates with teammates including Prince Fielder (left) after game five of the American League divisional series playoff baseball game against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. The Tigers won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

I wanted to take a methodical look at each specific play in the ALDS to determine the magnitude of the impact each one had on the Detroit Tigers’ eventual win. I thought about using WPA – Win Probability Added – but, while that would tell us how important each event was to the outcome an idividual game, I wanted a better look at how each event swung the advantage of the series (in real time).

I came up with Series Probability Added (I’m not sure if anyone has done this or not, it’s probably not unique to me), in which I combined WPA for in-game probability (using FanGraphs’ play logs) with the assumption of 50-50 odds for all future games.

It turns out that pretty much all the plays that felt huge at the time were actually really, really huge. Page through to see a description of each play, the series probability swing, and a video highlight.

Oct 8, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson breaks his bat on a RBI single against the Oakland Athletics in the seventh inning in game four of the American League divisional series playoff baseball game at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

#4 – Game 4: Austin Jackson’s broken-bat RBI single.

SPA: 10.5%

He couldn’t hit. Heck, he couldn’t even make contact.

Austin Jackson stepped to the plate with his series strikeout total on the rise. He was already 0-3 with three strikeouts on the night, but the Tigers were counting on him to come up with a two-out hit to score the runner from second. Down 0-2 in the count, Jackson puts a swing on the ball and connects. The bat snaps, turning what may have been a routine out (we’ll never know) into a soft line single that lands a step in front of A’s right fielder Josh Reddick. Andy Dirks sprints home from second, giving the Tigers a 5-4 lead in the bottom of the seventh inning of a win-or-go-home game.

Oct 8, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers designated hitter Victor Martinez celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Oakland Athletics during the seventh inning in game four of the American League divisional series playoff baseball game at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

#3 – Game 4: Victor Martinez’s controversial home run.

SPA: 11.0%

Down by a 4-3 score going into the bottom of the seventh inning, Victor Martinez led off with a deep fly ball to right field. Reddick tracked the ball to the wall, timed his jumped, leaped, and… didn’t get a chance to make a play on the ball as two heroic fans reached out to catch the ball. An Umpire’s video review confirmed that the ball was headed over the yellow home run line, and the A’s plea for a fan interference call was denied.

It really was an bad inning of events for Reddick. He wasn’t able to make a play on this tying run, the go-ahead run would land a step in front of him five batters later, and he’d strike out with the bases loaded and nobody out in the next half inning. Those three events, which all happened in either the bottom of the seventh or the top of the eighth, combined to swing the series in Detroit’s favor by a total of 28.6%!

Oct 8, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Oakland Athletics outfielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) is unable to catch a ball hit for a three-run home run by Detroit Tigers outfielder Jhonny Peralta (not pictured) in game four of the American League divisional series playoff baseball game at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

#2 – Game 4: Jhonny Peralta takes Dan Straily deep to even the game.

SPA: 12.7%

When Jed Lowrie homered off of Doug Fister in the top of the fifth inning to give Oakland a 3-0 lead in Game 4, the Tigers’ series probability had sunk to single digits – just 9.6%. It was a lot to ask for the team – a team who had struggled to hit at all to this point in the series – to come back from a 3-0 hole and then also win the next game.

But the Tigers jumped on Oakland starter Dan Straily the very next inning. Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez led off with back-to-back singles to put two runners on for Jhonny Peralta. Peralta smashed a 2-2 offering that carried the wall (and Yoenis Cespedes’ glove) in left field to even the score and give the Tigers back a breath of a chance of winning the series.

This was actually the single biggest play of the series in terms of WPA (.254), but the need to win the next game as well limited the big-picture impact to a degree.

October 10, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run off of Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54, left) during the fourth inning in game five of the American League divisional series playoff baseball game at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

#1 – Game 5: Miguel Cabrera homers off of Sonny Gray.

SPA: 22.9%

Shell of His Former Self (that’s his new first name, apparently) Miguel Cabrera wasn’t pitched inside much by the Oakland Athletics this series. But then Sonny Gray decided to try one inside, and Miggy, being the nice guy that he is, took time out of his busy schedule to teach the rookie a lesson. A learning experience, you might call it. Cabrera’s injury had turned his opposite-field power into warning track power, but Gray gave him a pitch he could pull, and the injured Miggy was strong enough to muscle that one out. With Justin Verlander on the mound – and dealing – the two-run home run was all the offense the Tigers would need (but they later added one for good measure).

The homer took the series odds from basically 50-50 up to 73% in favor of the Tigers. They’d finish off the remaining 27% over the next 4.5 innings as Justin Verlander (and Joaquin Benoit) slammed the door on the A’s season.