A Look at the Detroit Tigers' Immediate Minor League Pitching Depth

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Mar 16, 2013; Jupiter, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Jose Alvarez (71) delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium. The Tigers defeated the Cardinals 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

Previously I looked at the immediate depth the Detroit Tigers will have in the top levels of the minor leagues for position players. This mostly focused on the AAA and AA players who are on the 40-man roster and could fill in for the big league club on a moment’s notice.

The Tigers don’t have anyone would could step in and replace a starters’ value — it would be rare for any club to have that luxury — but the disappointing thing is that they don’t have many players at all who could be counted on to even be a replacement level option. Perhaps Jordan Lennerton could do that at first base, and perhaps one of Hernan Perez, Danny Worth, or Eugenio Suarez could do that at second base, but the cupboard appears rather bare (at least in terms of players who could contribute in 2014) at the other positions.

Today I’m going to shift gears and look at the team’s pitching depth. Even without Doug Fister the rotation looks to be one of the best in baseball (it’s hard to beat that top three), but do they have anyone capable of stepping in should an injury occur? And what about the already shaky bullpen? Do they have many players to cycle through who could get big league hitters out?

Let’s take a look (2013 level for each 40-man player listed in parenthesis):

February 12, 2013; Tampa, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Kyle Lobstein (31) works out during spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Starting Pitching

Depth Level: Fair

40-man options: Kyle Lobstein (AAA-AA), Jose Alvarez (MLB-AAA)

Starting pitching depth is another reason as to why I’m still not keen on the Doug Fister trade. Having Drew Smyly slated for a bullpen role would have meant excellent depth in the rotation as well. The wouldn’t want to yank him back-and-forth every time they need a spot start, but he would be available to slide in if a long-term injury were to occur (especially if it happened early on).

As it stands now, however, the Tigers appear to have just two starting options on their 40-man roter, now that Casey Crosby is reportedly making the switch to the bullpen.

Jose Alvarez probably won’t make the big league club out of spring, but he has experience as a spot starter with the Tigers. He made six such starts last season and, although he didn’t fare particularly well (he had an ERA above 5.00), he had a few good starts and was basically replacement level in the role. You wouldn’t want him to make more than one start a month, but he’s not likely to kill you with an outing here or there.

As a Rule 5 player last year, Kyle Lobstein didn’t make the team out of spring training, but the Tigers traded to keep him in the system and he responded with a good year between Erie and Toledo. The 23 year old made 28 starts (168 innings) between the AA and AAA levels and combined a 3.27 ERA with eight strikeouts per nine innings and fewer than three walks per nine. His biggest problem was battling a somewhat elevated BABIP. Lobstein doesn’t seem to have the profile to become an above-average MLB starter, but he might be a decent fill-in for a few games in 2014. He at least made things interesting with a solid 2013 campaign.

The real wild card in all this — and probably the reason why I didn’t rate the starting pitching depth as poor — is the newly acquired Robbie Ray. He’s not on the 40-man roster — and probably will start in AA — but Dave Dombrowski seems to think that he’ll be “ready” soon, and a good first half could put him in line for a second half spot start should that be required. In 11 starts in the Eastern League last year as a member of the Washington Nationals organization last season, Ray struck out more than nine per nine innings and posted a 3.72 ERA. He might very well be the best pitching prospect in the organization right now.

June 1, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Casey Crosby (45) pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Relief Pitching

Depth Level: Poor

40-man options: Casey Crosby (AAA), Melvin Mercedes (AA-A+), Justin Miller (AAA), Jose Ortega (MLB-AAA), Evan Reed (MLB-AAA), Jose Valdez (A+-A)

The Tigers have a couple of interesting arms in the minors, including a couple who could factor into the late innings in future years, but it’s hard to see any of the above contributing major innings in 2014. I might have rated the bullpen depth as “fair” or even “good” had the major league pen appeared reliable, but I think they’ll have trouble there, and there isn’t a lot of help to be found in the minors.

Casey Crosby will be trying things out in the bullpen, so maybe something clicks, but unless he pulls together some sort of command and gets his walk total under control, it’s hard to see him being a reliable option. His arm has never really been questioned, so he’ll get plenty of opportunities to succeed. Perhaps the bullpen will suit him.

Miller, Ortega, and Reed are probably guys who they could cycle through, but probably none of the three are guys who you’d want to see pitching in real setup situations.

Melvin Mercedes has been climbing through the organization (and prospect rankings) with impressive results over the years, but I will continue to have reservations about him if he can’t ratchet up the strikeout totals above Porcellian levels (6.1 K/9 last year combined between Lakeland and Erie). He has thus far survived by keeping the ball in the yard and suppressing opponents’ BABIP (which isn’t necessarily impossible for a reliever with good stuff), but I always have a hard time trusting the “good stuff” of a guy who doesn’t strike anyone out. The scout-types like him, though, so I’ll trust them for now.

The most interesting relief name in the organization is Corey Knebel (non 40-man). He was a draft pick out of Texas this past June, but spent the second half of the year absolutely dominating the Midwest League. A-ball is a long way from the big leagues, but I’d be shocked if he were to be assigned to a league below AA out of spring. A dominating first half could put him in line for a second half debut. Knebel participated in the Arizonal Fall League where his strikeout stuff persisted (11 strikeouts in 8.2 innings), but his ERA ended up elevated (4.12) due to a low strand rate (in all it was a positive performance).

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A Look at the Detroit Tigers’ Immediate Minor League Pitching Depth

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