Detroit Tigers Roundtable: A Potential Scherzer Deal, Late-Inning Relievers, and More

Oct 19, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer throws a pitch against the Detroit Tigers during the first inning in game six of the American League Championship Series playoff baseball game at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Clayton Kershaw just got a bonkers deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers (not that he doesn’t deserve it). What would your seven-year offer to Max Scherzer look like?

Michael Emmerich: Scherzer is obviously much older than Kershaw and has had his ups and downs. But he will end up making Verlander kind of money, so if the Tigers want to keep him that’s what they will have to pay, around 28 million a year. Frankly, I hope the Tigers move in another direction after this season, unless Scherzer agrees to a 3-4 year deal (lol).

Matt Pelc: Max hasn’t had the sustained success that Kershaw has seen. My gut says Scherzer is happy here and even with Scott Boras as his agent, he may not command, or demand, Kershaw or Verlander money. JV got $202 million over eight years whereas Kershaw’s contract is seven years, $215 million. I’d offer Max $175 million for seven years prior to the season, but full disclosure, math and I have never seen eye-to-eye.

Tom Zahari: If I am forced to give Scherzer a 7-year deal, I would make it for around $130 million with incentives to get that number up to about $150 million. I am very wary about giving pitchers this much money, especially after only having 1 season to the caliber that Scherzer had in 2013. Kershaw has had a run of dominance of 5 years with an ERA under 3 which Max did for the first time in his career last season.

Blair Tatrault: This is bad news for the Tigers and I’m not sure they’ll be able to cough up the $160 million or so over 7 years ($23M/yr) it may take to secure Max Scherzer. This is further fodder for those such as myself who questioned the Doug Fister trade. Though obviously not in Kershaw’s league as a pitching talent, he was a bargain at $6.9M or so for 2014, plus he was under team control for 2015. Both Scherzer’s and Fister’s value went up considerably with Kershaw’s windfall contract, and in both cases that’s an unwelcome development for the Tigers.

Chris Hannun: He’s not JV and he’s not Kershaw, so I can’t see offering him the same AAV – though I think that is what Boras will be demanding. There’s a difference between a guy who just won a Cy Young and a guy who’s on a HoF track. I’d go 15-22-23-24-24-24-24, and simultaneously worry he wouldn’t be worth it and that he wouldn’t take it.

Grant Stoye: I figure that by turning 30 this year he’ll have about a 5.5 WAR, and that same number for the next year. After that, probably a 5, 4.5, 4, 3, and 3, equally about to 30.5 WAR over seven years. With a WAR being about $6m per, increasing by .3 a year, I feel like it could be averaged to about 6.6, and a total payout of $201. This contract could be frontloaded, or it could be for less money, and there’s also the fact that Scherzer would take less to stay here. So, in a perfect world, if I had my druthers, I’d go 7 years, $180m ($31.5, 30.5, 29, 26.5, 25.5, 21, 16).

Josh Paulisin: Nowhere near Kershaw’s $215 million or even Verlander’s $180 million. Last season’s Cy Young could very well be a blip on the screen of Max Scherzer’s career. Put me down for $140 million tops. But if Max doesn’t want that, I’ll pitch for that money.

Matt Snyder: I would probably offer up something in the $155-$160 million range, which is $24-ish million per year for the free agency years plus $13 million or so for his final arbitration year. If he’s looking for a whole lot more than that, then I wouldn’t necessarily chase him.

Sam O’Toole: Scherzer was awesome last year, no doubt about it, but I don’t think his new contract will be what Kershaw received; Scherzer did put together a solid 2012 season as well. The Tigers won’t give Scherzer more than they did Verlander for his seven-year deal ($180 million), and I don’t see the Tigers taking what Felix Hernandez received in Seattle. I would offer Scherzer a seven-year deal worth between $150 and 160 million which is comparable to CC Sabathia’s deal and Zach Grienke which would put him among the six or seven highest paid pitchers.

April 25, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Bruce Rondon (43) walks off the field after being relieved in the ninth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park. Kansas City won 8-3 in ten innings. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Nathan has the ninth inning job locked down. Who will be the eighth inning man come September?

Michael Emmerich: Someone not currently on the roster, probably an arm picked up at the deadline, further bleeding the farm system.

Matt Pelc: I wrote a month or so ago that I’m comfortable with Bruce Rondon in that role if he’s healthy. Last year I was not happy with them handing him the closers role and he didn’t even make the team out of Spring Training. Before getting injured, he showed that he could play well in pressure sitations. Still, I wouldn’t be opposed to adding an experienced set-up man or closer to take that role and free Rondon up for middle relief.

Tom Zahari: This job is Bruce Rondon’s to lose. If Rondon can stay healthy for the season and can locate his pitches, he will be one of the best 8th inning men in all of baseball. If the 8th is filled with 3 lefties, I could see Ian Krol getting some time in the 8th, but a majority of the time, I expect to see Rondon out there setting up Nathan.

Blair Tatrault: Closer-in-waiting Bruce Rondon has shut-down stuff and should inherit inning number eight if healthy. It will be an added plus If Nathan actively mentors Rondon, assuming Rondon is receptive and a good student. It’s a perfect situation for Rondon to take advantage of for the next two years.

Chris Hannum: Honestly I am hoping for a more modern approach from Ausmus that would include using guys situationally rather than because it was their inning. If there has to BE an 8th inning guy, I’ll put my money on Joba (after Al Al and Rondon blow out elbows).

Grant Stoye: Well, if the pattern of acquiring a Houston closer for the stretch run is applicable this year, I’d LOVE to see Jesse Crain lock down the eighth. If not, I’m pretty happy with Rondon, as I think he can take a step this year.

Josh Paulisin: From anointed closer, to Wild Thing Part II, and to Toledo and back again, Bruce Rondon will finally cement himself as the Tigers’ guy in the eighth. In 12 2/3 innings last August and September, Rondon saw his ERA drop from a hefty 5.06 to a respectable 3.45. He also managed to rack up 18 strikeouts during that time. Now that the pressure to close is off his shoulders, I can see Rondon repeating these late season numbers for a full season.

Matt Snyder: Whoever it is, I’m hoping they earn the spot by playing well and not by watching everyone else fail. It’s very hard to say, but I’ll go with Joba Chamberlain because I suspect Bruce Rondon will be the more popular choice.

Sam O’Toole: I think Bruce Rondon will be the set up man by the end of the season. After his up-and-down
season in 2013, I see him taking that next step. Since the competition for that job seems to be wide open, Rondon can step right in. He was excellent in the minors and still finished with a 3.41 ERA in 30 games with the Tigers. Rondon threw mostly fastballs last season (77.8%), so he will need to mix in a secondary pitch to get opponents out in the eighth. Alburquerque hasn’t put together a good season in the bullpen since 2011 due to injuries and poor play. The other two options would have to be either Coke or Chamberlain and, by September, I think Rondon will have that role ahead of those two.

May 2, 2013; Toronto, ON, Canada; A bat and a baseball and a batting glove on the turf field during batting practice before the Toronto Blue Jays game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. The Red Sox beat the Blue Jays 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

What’s your favorite type of non-real baseball game?

Michael Emmerich: I used to love Strat-o-matc, although my favorite was a game put out by Sports Illustrated in the 1970s called All-Time All Stars. It included the 16 original franchises with SI’s picks of the all-time best players at each position for each franchise. It was pretty realistic for its day, each team chart was intuitive and colorful, and that’s how I learned about baseball history (and such Tiger stars of yesteryear like Bobby Veach and Donnie Bush, and Tommy Bridges and so on.) You can get it on ebay for around 50 bucks.

Matt Pelc: MLB The Show for Playstation is a great baseball simulation. I’ve found it a more convincing simulation than Madden is for the NFL. My only complaint is that they introduced historic stadiums (like the Polo Grounds, Forbes Field, etc) to play in but never added Tiger Stadium.

Tom Zahari: To this day, I still play what we called “duct tape ball”. When I was 12 or 13 some of the neighbors got together in my backyard and we played whiffle ball, but we used metal bats which ended up breaking the ball. Like any males, we pulled out the duct tape to patch up the holes and we just duct taped the entire thing. If flew better than a whiffle ball, but it never broke any windows.

Blair Tatrault: Whiffle ball, hands down. The game could be played endlessly in tight outdoor settings without fear of broken windows. Whether hitting,fielding, or pitching you could develop genuine hand-eye coordination and skills transferable to baseball. When the real deal (hardball) wasn’t a possibility, whiffle ball was the natural alternative.

Chris Hannum: Haven’t had time for any of them lately, but the one I really want to play is MLB Front Office Manager for Xbox.

Grant Stoye: I’m a fantasy baseball obsessive (an AL-only league and a mixed league that’s been going for 13 years straight), but as an xBox 360 owner I’m attached at the hip to MLB2k13. Keeps the winter tolerable, y’know?

Josh Paulisin: In their four years of existence, the Virginia Beach Mighty Ducks have made the Fantasy Baseball Championship each season despite “poor drafts” according to other managers in the league. After raising a banner in its expansion year and looking to rebound from agonizing defeats the past three seasons, I’m counting down the days till draft night where once again the VBMD’s will almost assuredly have another “awful draft.”

Matt Snyder: During the season I can regularly be found obsessing over my fantasy baseball team. It’s a points-based scoring league (the only good way to play fantasy baseball), so it’s about building the best team however you want, not just accumulating a bunch of stat categories.

Sam O’Toole: The Bigs. It’s a video game that was released in 2007. It is the baseball version of NFL Blitz or NHL Hitz. I remember playing it all the time when I was younger, and I still own it. It has to be the funnest baseball video game I have ever played. It’s not traditional whatsoever, and is based on turbo, power ups, etc. Very fun and entertaining game.