Detroit Tigers should make this trade with the St. Louis Cardinals

Detroit adds a future building block while St. Louis addresses a significant need

The trade:

Detroit Tigers acquire outfielder Tyler O’Neill, starting pitcher Ryan Helsley and reliever Ryan Sherriff.

St. Louis Cardinals acquire relievers Shane Greene and Alex Wilson.

The Cardinals added O’Neill, a prospect who ranked 38^th on Baseball America’s list of top 100 prospects in February as part of a seemingly lopsided deal with the Seattle Mariners for 25-year-old starter Marco Gonzales.

Admittedly, Gonzales was once a well-regarded prospect in his own right and O’Neill didn’t make Baseball America’s midseason top-100 list in part due to a 2017 season with Triple-A Tacoma that saw him hit .244 with a .328 on-base percentage and a 106 wRC+.

Outfield options

While O’Neill still has a bright future, he’s a trade chip that the Cardinals could conceivably look to cash in on this winter due to the franchise’s log jam of quality in the outfield grass.

St. Louis’ outfield picture seems to be a crowded one for the long haul as well.

Per Spotrac, Dexter Fowler is under contract through 2021 with a full-no trade clause.

According to the same publication, Stephen Piscotty is locked up through 2022 with a club option for 2023.

There’s also Randal Grichuk, who per the folks at Spotrac has three years of club control via arbitration left.

Additionally, Tommy Pham, according to Spotrac, won’t be eligible for arbitration for another year and comes with four seasons of club control remaining.

Fellow top outfield prospects Harrison Bader and Magneuris Sierra also debuted in the Majors this season.

All that being said, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the team add another hitter this offseason. If said hitter is an outfielder, it could push O’Neill even further down the pecking order.

Cardinals fortify the bullpen

Outside of a hitter, St. Louis’ most pressing need is in the bullpen.

Reliable closer Trevor Rosenthal was sidelined via Tommy John surgery in 2017, while a number of the Cards’ other late-inning arms will hit the free agent market.

These include Seung-hwan Oh, Juan Nicasio and Zach Duke.

On top of that, the team already jettisoned Kevin Siegrist late in the season.

That leaves the National League Central franchise with a combination of Brett Cecil, Matt Bowman, Tyler Lyons and Sam Tuivailala to handle late-inning work.

While that’s a solid base to build on, there isn’t a definitive leader in the clubhouse for closing duties.

Bullpen reinforcements

That’s where Greene comes in.

The Tigers’ closer was plenty effective in the second half (most of which he spent filling in for Justin Wilson as closer), pitching to 9.88 strikeouts per nine innings, a 1.28 WHIP and a 1.98 ERA.

On the season, he held batters to a .270 on-base percentage in high-leverage situations.

The reliever could serve as St. Louis closer next season, but long-term he’s also a fit next to Rosenthal considering his ability to pitch as a setup man.

Heading into 2018, Wilson can fill in next to Cecil and Lyons as Greene’s setup relievers.

Since the start of the 2015 campaign, the former Red Sox hurler has the 13^th-lowest walk percentage and the 14^th-lowest home run to fastball percentage.

Adding Greene and Alex Wilson to pitch late in games would likely solve St. Louis’ bullpen issues and help the team close the gap between themselves and both the Cubs and the Brewers.

Detroit’s side of the (hypothetical) deal

In return, the Detroit Tigers would receive three pieces in outfielder Tyler O’Neill, starting pitcher Ryan Helsley and reliever Ryan Sherriff.

The obvious centerpiece is O’Neill, who could very well step into a Major League starting lineup by the time Opening Day 2018 rolls around.

This would represent a significant change from Detroit’s top outfield prospects, Mike Gerber and Christin Stewart, who started 2017 with Double-A Erie.

Of the two, only Gerber was promoted to Triple-A Toledo—and he logged just 18 plate appearances late in the year with the Mud Hens.

While it wouldn’t be a shock to see either in the Majors at some point next season, they may not be as ready as O’Neill.

The outfielder mashed 31 home runs, 26 doubles and three triples to go along with 95 RBI, 77 runs scored and 14 stolen bases in 557 plate appearances split between Tacoma and St. Louis Triple-A affiliate in Memphis.

What’s more, his ISO topped .230 (.235 with Tacoma, .295 with Memphis) in both stops.

He also turned in respective wOBA stats of .355 and .348 for the two respective Triple-A affiliates.

Power potential

Should the Tigers acquire the ex-Mariners outfield prospect, he’d immediately slot into the middle of the team’s lineup.

Hit him either fifth behind Miguel Cabrera and Nicholas Castellanos or sixth behind Cabrera, Castellanos and Jeimer Candelario and the production at the plate will come.

Baseball Prospectus wrote the following about the outfielder ahead of the 2017 season:

“O’Neill’s carrying tool is his power. It’s 70 raw and if everything clicks, he has the pop to hit 30 homers in the big leagues. His power stems from his frame: he’s a big man, a workout warrior with thick wrists and forearms, and plus bat speed to go along with it. He’s capable of driving the ball out to all fields.”

In an article breaking down the trade that sent O’Neill to the Cardinals organization, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America wrote the following about the outfielder’s defense:

“He reads balls off the bat better in right field than left, but is an average defender with an above-average arm capable of playing both.”

O’Neill isn’t a perfect prospect, as strikeouts are still a concern for the 22-year-old.

However, British Columbia native has a chance to be an impact player if he can put it all together.

In this hypothetical scenario, he’d slot in as the Detroit Tigers’ left fielder with Mikie Mahtook shifting to center field more often to lessen the burden on JaCoby Jones.

Ryan Helsley and Ryan Sherriff

Rounding out this hypothetical trade are two players who, like O’Neill, could slot in and help the Detroit Tigers in 2018.

We start with Helsley, a 23-year-old starter and former fifth-round pick.

The right-hander is already in Triple-A, albeit with just one start at the minors’ highest level under his belt, after beginning his professional career in 2015.

Making the jump from Advanced-A to Double-A and then on to Triple-A, the Northeastern State University product worked to a 2.27 ERA in 23 outings (23 starts) spanning 132.1 innings.

He struck out 137 compared to just 48 walks.

All told, that spits out to 9.3 punch outs per nine frames and 3.3 walks surrendered per nine innings. Helsley’s WHIP finished at 1.149 for the season.

Upside

MLB.com’s MLB Pipeline wrote the following about Helsley, who the publication rates as the organization’s 23^rd-best prospect:

“Helsley has picked up some velocity since joining the Cardinals organization, and he now sits in the 93-95 mph range, with the ability to reach back and touch as high as 98 mph on occasion. His low 80s curveball continues to improve and will flash above average to plus on occasion. Helsley continues to work on his changeup, which might be an average pitch when all is said and done, and he’s working in a new cutter, with slider-like action, this season.”

He seems likely to begin the year in the upper minors, but that the 23-year-old could be in the Majors after another strong stint.

Long-term, Helsley would give the Tigers another rotation option to utilize alongside the likes of Michael Fulmer, Franklin Perez, Beau Burrows, Alex Faedo and Matt Manning.

Ryan Sherriff

Entering the 2017 season, left-handed relievers in the bullpen seemed to be an area of strength for the Detroit Tigers.

Justin Wilson was the bullpen’s top southpaw, while also moonlighting as Francisco Rodriguez’ primary setup man.

After Wilson, Detroit had a surprisingly long-ish list of options with Kyle Ryan and Blaine Hardy coming off encouraging seasons and Chad Bell and Daniel Stumpf likely to enter the picture at some point.

Then the actual 2017 season happened, and well… the situation is plenty different on the other side of things.

Wilson was dealt to Chicago on July 31, while the other three imploded in the Majors.

The phrase “hemorrhaging runs” comes to mind regarding Ryan, Hardy and Bell, who struggled mightily at times in 2017.

Left-handed relievers needed

Now, Detroit enters 2018 with Stumpf as the only southpaw likely assured of a place in the bullpen heading into Spring Training.

Ideally, Jairo Labourt, with his promising fastball-slider one-two punch, can establish himself in the Majors in 2018.

However, the Tigers will likely need some more left-handed options to help ease Labourt into high-leverage situations.

One fit could be Sherriff.

The 27-year-old made his Major League debut in 2017, working to a 3.14 ERA, a 3.93 FIP, a 3.35 xFIP and a 2.97 SIERA in a modest 14.1 innings. He also struck out 15 and turned in a 1.186 WHIP.

Despite just recently debuting with the Cardinals, the southpaw has a strong track record at the minors’ highest level.

He owns a 3.05 ERA, 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a 1.207 WHIP in 129.2 innings for Triple-A Memphis in parts of the last four seasons.

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He wouldn’t be the solution in the Detroit Tigers bullpen, but he could certainly help turn things around for the future.