Detroit Tigers: Prospects entering make-or-break seasons

The Detroit Tigers have a handful of prospects who are entering their pinnacle season in 2018. A step forward could lead them to the big leagues, but a step backward could end their career.

The Detroit Tigers have made no secret about their intention to rebuild over the next few years, aiming for a contention window closer to 2020. The time in between will be used to acquire and develop prospects who can help the team grow into a World Series contender. In the meantime, the team will rely on a few veterans and a handful of average big leaguers to pass the time until the team can contend again.

This is good news for many of the Detroit’s older prospects, who now have a better chance of seeing themselves in a big league uniform. Without players like Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez and Justin Verlander taking up roster space, minor league veterans like Dixon Machado and JaCoby Jones will get a chance to strut their stuff at the big league level.

The Tigers have a select group of older prospects who will enter 2018 on an unspoken “make it or break it” contract for the year. These are prospects who have been in Detroit’s system for a handful of years, yet have not progressed as many expected them to. If these prospects do not show significant strides in the next year, they will likely be booted from the organization, replaced by higher profile prospects who have a better chance of helping the team win in a few years.

However, these prospects also have a great chance to crack the big league roster if they are able to make big strides forward. This is an incredibly important year for these four prospects. Let’s take a look at their current situation and see how we think they will fare in 2018.

Derek Hill

At just 22 years old, Derek Hill still has time on his side. Hill’s calling card has always been his elite defense in center field. While the Tigers have been waiting for him to hit, he always had a safety net that he’d still make the big leagues because of his defense.

However, the arrival of uber prospect Daz Cameron – along with the growth of JaCoby Jones as a defensive centerfielder, have taken away Hill’s safety net. A good defensive center fielder who cannot hit no longer has appeal in Detroit’s sytem. If Hill can’t get things going with the stick, he will be passed up on the depth chart and may lose his chance to wear the Old English D.

Hill was drafted out of High School by the Tigers in the first round of the 2014 MLB draft. A series of injuries has held Hill back, and despite being in the system for four years he has only seen 31 at-bats at High-A.

In 991 career at-bats, Hill has slashed .245/.316/.339. He only has five career home runs, but has swiped 100 bases on 120 attempts. Hill played in 93 games in 2016, hitting .266 with a .312 OBP and 35 stolen bases. He was injured for most of 2017, only earning 224 at-bats across three levels. He slashed .285/.367/.444 in 144 at-bats with Single-A, before getting a brief promotion to High-A, where he went 6-for-31.

The Hill he needs to climb

Hill will likely start out in High-A ball next season. If he stays healthy and is able to get on-base with more consistency, he could easily progress quickly through the minor leagues. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him reach Triple-A with a good, healthy season. A September call-up is ambitious, but possible for the right-hander.

However, another season of Hill floundering at the plate would really set him back. The Tigers likely aren’t ready to completely abandon their 2014 first-rounder altogether, but it will become harder and harder to justify a spot on the 40-man if Hill can’t get it together. Especially with Cameron, Jones and Victor Reyes all capable of playing center field, Hill’s days may be numbered.

Spencer Turnbull

Perhaps no prospect on this list is in greater danger of losing their roster spot than 25-year-old right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Turnbull was originally selected by the Tigers in the second round of the 2014 draft, right in between Derek Hill and Grayson Greiner.

Turnbull struggled to finish out 2014 but was much stronger in 2015 with Single-A West Michigan. He went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 116.2 innings. That got him noticed, and he was considered a rising star in Detroit’s farm system.

A preseason injury held Turnbull out until June of 2016, when he debuted with the Tigers rookie league affiliate. He posted pedestrian numbers at that level before finishing off the season in High-A with a 3.00 ERA across six starts.

Turnbull made 15 starts at High-A in 2017. His 3.05 ERA and 1.12 WHIP were very solid, but he posted a pedestrian 7.0 K/9. He made his Double-A debut late in the season and was lit up across four starts. He had a 6.20 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, but did post 22 strikeouts in 20.1 innings.

At this point, Turnbull is a 25-year-old college right-hander who has barely sniffed Double-A. Like Greiner and Hill, Turnbull has seen his stock plummet with the recent additions of right-handed prospects. Franklin Perez and Alex Faedo join Matt Manning, Beau Burrows and Kyle Funkhouser as right-handed pitching prospects who project to make the big league rotation in the next few years. With Michael Fulmer already in the fold, space in Detroit’s future rotation is rapidly filling up. He has consistently posted solid strikeout numbers however, so a future in the bullpen may be in the cards.

Bullpen?

Turnbull’s scouting grades include a 60-grade fastball and a 55-grade slider, with below average marks for his curveball and changeup. That profile screams relief pitcher, where Turnbull can rely on a two-pitch arsenal to succeed.

If Turnbull isn’t able to make the jump forward in 2018, it would be wise for the Tigers to embrace his future as a reliever. Space is limited in the rotation, and the Tigers could recoup some of his value if he is able to turn into a quality late-inning reliever. It’s worth the risk, as Turnbull is rapidly looking like an afterthought in a farm system littered with right-handers.

Jose Azocar

Jose Azocar, to put it mildly, struggled in 2017. The 21-year-old outfielder spent his fifth minor league campaign with Detroit’s High-A squad. He hit a miserable .220/.246/.296 with 12 stolen bases in 431 at-bats. His walk-rate was a miserable 3.1%, and his 26.8% strikeout rate in High-A does not bode well for his future.

Azocar’s age works in his advantage. Even though he has been playing in Detroit’s minor league system since 2013, he is still just 21 years old. However, the presence of Derek Hill and Daz Cameron, not to mention under-the-radar prospect Cam Gibson, make Azocar’s path to the big leagues look very murky.

Azocar made it out of rookie ball in 2015 after posting a stellar .325 batting average with a 131 wRC+. He spent 2016 in Single-A, hitting .281/.315/.335 with eight triples and 14 stolen bases. He had a chance to turn some heads last year, but his ugly performance with the bat has likely soured many of the Tigers brass on his future.

What needs to happen

For Azocar to ever don the Old English D, he will need to prove that he is more than just a speedster. He has not shown that he is capable of drawing a walk, and while he has a 70-grade arm he is only slightly above average defensively.

Azocar will likely battle with both Gibson and Hill for a starting outfield spot in High-A Lakeland. Unless Azocar considerably outperforms both of them however, the Tigers will likely move them along. That may leave Azocar as either a trade piece or as a potential cut.

Next: Predicting the Tigers in 2018

The 2018 season is an important one for many players who are hoping to prove once and for all they deserve a job in the big leagues. For these four players in particular, it’s crunch time. Should be fun to watch as the Tigers get ready for another season.