Detroit Tigers: Staff preseason predictions

The staff at Motor City Bengals makes their preseason predictions regarding the Detroit Tigers in 2018.

The Detroit Tigers are no longer perennial contenders for the AL pennant. After shipping away most of their premier talent at the trade deadline, the Tigers have geared up for a potentially lengthy rebuild.

With rebuilds comes a lot of uncertainty. The 2018 team has a lot of older, veteran talent still remaining. However, the majority of their future is still in the minor leagues, and the rest of the roster is filled with cheap veterans whose job it is to bridge the gap until the team can be competitive again.

That could make for an ugly couple of seasons in the Motor City. However, that does not mean there won’t be some fun to be had this season.

Here at Motor City Bengals, our staff set out to make predictions for the upcoming season. Each of us made a handful of predictions, and we will see how we did at the end of the year.

With such a young, volatile team, virtually anything can happen. Regardless, it should be a fun, albeit trying, season.

We will start with staff co-expert Andy Patton:

Victor Martinez hits 20 or more home runs

Victor Martinez has hit 20 or more home runs seven times in his illustrious career, with two of those seasons coming in Detroit. While Martinez’s 2017 season (10 home runs, .255 average) was disappointing, a bounce-back from V-Mart seems plausible heading into his age-39 season. Martinez only hit 10 home runs last year, but his hard-hit rate was actually higher than it was in 2016, when he hit 27 round-trippers. His problem was his launch angle, as he saw his fly-ball rate drop to 34.2% in 2017.

If V-Mart can continue to hit the ball hard while increasing his fly ball percentage, there is no reason he can’t easily eclipse 20 home runs for the third time as a Tiger.

Nicholas Castellanos makes his first All-Star Game

Castellanos was a sabermetric darling last year, boasting an incredible 43.4% hard-hit rate and the tenth most ‘barreled’ baseballs in the league last year. The results were there, as Casty hit 26 home runs with 101 RBI and a .272 batting average. All this while learning to switch positions on the fly. Now, Castellanos is locked in as the everyday right fielder. He looks likely to move into the clean-up spot in Detroit, and this is the year he will complete his break through and make the AL All-Star team.

Christin Stewart outperforms Mikie Mahtook

This prediction is more apprehension about Mahtook’s ability to repeat his performance from last year. Mahtook has looked terrible this spring, and while that is not a major cause for concern, it does beg the question: How long of a leash does he have until they call someone else up?

Stewart is the likely beneficiary if Mahtook struggles. The 24-year-old power hitter will struggle defensively, but has worked hard to become an adequate left fielder. He has the potential to hit 25 home runs in the big leagues, and posts strong walk numbers as well.

I think Mahtook will struggle to match last season’s performance, and will be replaced midseason by Stewart, who will have a stronger second half.

Next is co-expert Adam McIntosh’s predictions:

Here are Jim Kramer’s three predictions for 2018:

Tigers finish fourth, beat out the White Sox

2018 pitching staff will benefit from Chris Bosio‘s teachings. They will continue to improve over the next few years but the improvements this year will be enough to beat out the White Sox and finish 4th in the Central Division.

Buck Farmer will develop into a top notch reliever

We saw glimpses of improvement last year in Buck Farmer. He failed after multiple cycles through the order. Like Shane Greene, the move to the bullpen will benefit Farmer. He will be one of the best Tigers out of the pen.

Jeimer Candelario will solidify his role at third base

We have heard and seen flashes of brilliance from Jeimer Candelario. Candelario will not only solidify third base but will compete for rookie of the year in 2018.

Now, here are staff writer Austin Green‘s four predictions:

Miguel Cabrera starts at first in All-Star Game.

Victor Reyes becomes a starter in center field after Leonys Martin gets traded.

Leonys Martin, Jose Iglesias, and Francisco Liriano all get traded prior to the trade deadline.

Mike Fiers under-performs and gets released.

Jose Iglesias will be traded

Iglesias agreed to a one-year deal this offseason to avoid arbitration, but will be a free agent following the season. He’s one of many Detroit Tigers who have shown up in trade rumors, and it makes sense for him to be dealt. Better to get something instead of losing him for nothing after the season.

Dawel Lugo will be the everyday second baseman by August

An Iglesias trade would open the door for Lugo to come up and play every day. Lugo was acquired in the J.D. Martinez trade, and hit a combined .277 with 13 homers and 65 RBI in his two Double-A stops last year.

Lugo possesses the ability to play any of the infield spots, so he could be a straight replacement for Iglesias, or could slot in at second with Dixon Machado moving to shortstop.

Even if for some reason Iglesias doesn’t get traded, Lugo could be promoted to replace Machado. If Machado struggles in his first extended look as an everyday player, Lugo could take over at second, and Machado could return to his former role as a utility player.

The Tigers will win 70 games

Detroit went 64-98 last year, underperforming their Pythagorean record by three wins. The offense should be improved with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez seemingly healthy, and Nicholas Castellanos looking primed to take the next step.

On the pitching side, the Detroit Tigers were at or near the bottom of the league in several pitching categories. Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris, and Jordan Zimmerman all had ERAs nearly a run higher than their FIP, suggesting some bad luck. Even the slightest improvements on the pitching side should lead to a few more wins.

Finally there’s the Ron Gardenhire factor. Gardenhire continuously got the most out of his young players in Minnesota and can do the same here. It won’t lead to a playoff appearance or a .500 record this year, but he is a better fit for this team than Brad Ausmus was.

Next: Using Baseball-Reference to predict 2018 performance

The fun part about predictions is that truly anything can happen. While a few of us are bound to hit on some of these, 162 games is a lot of baseball. Starting Thursday, all bets are off.