Detroit Tigers: Who should they protect on the 40-man roster?

The Detroit Tigers have some decisions to make in advance of tonight’s deadline to set their 40-man roster before December’s Rule 5 Draft.

The Detroit Tigers currently have 39 players on their 40-man roster. By the end of the day, whichever players are on that roster will be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, which will take place on December 13 after the Winter Meetings.

As a reminder, any player who was under 18 when they were signed is eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft if they have been in the system for five seasons. If they were over 19, they are eligible after four years.

The Tigers have quite a few players who are organizational favorites who are currently eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft – if they don’t add them to the roster before tonight. With the roster already at 39, and the team likely wanting to keep a spot open for a draft pick, they have some decisions to make.

The team currently has three prospects ranked in their top 30 who are eligible to be selected and who aren’t protected: outfielder Jose Azocar, left-hander Tyler Alexander and outfielder and former first round pick Derek Hill. Additionally, outfielder Cam Gibson and right-handed reliever Paul Voelker each seem like options to potentially be selected as well.

So what should the Tigers do? Well, they have a few options. They could choose to trade players currently on the 40-man roster for prospects who don’t need protecting, which would clear up some space. They could also waive, non-tender or release players who are on the 40-man. Or, they could stick with what they have and hope that they don’t lose anyone this year.

Trading for a spot

The Detroit Tigers have a handful of players that they should look to trade this offseason. Two relievers in particular, Alex Wilson and Blaine Hardy, seem like prime trade candidates based on their age, salary and how they performed last year.

Hardy had one of the strongest seasons of his career last year, making 30 appearances (13 starts) and posting a 3.56 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. He is 31-years-old however, and does not project to be a part of Detroit’s future. His low strikeout totals and uneven track record will curb his trade value, but if Detroit can trade him for a lottery ticket prospect or two, ones who don’t need 40-man protection, they’ll kill two birds with one stone.

Wilson is in a similar boat, although he has had more success up to this point in his career than Hardy. He is also more expensive, with an expected $2.8M salary through arbitration. Still, if Detroit can ship him for a couple lower level prospects, it would help them clear a spot to protect one of their prospects.

There are a few other potential trade candidates, like Matthew Boyd, Nicholas Castellanos and Shane Greene, but the return on those would likely net Detroit a prospect worthy of a 40-man spot, so they probably won’t happen until after tonight’s deadline.

Doing Nothing

Detroit also doesn’t have to do anything. They have all of their really high-profile prospects protected, and they still have a spot available to make a selection – like they did last year with Reyes.

Looking at the eligible players Detroit would be leaving exposed, there is reason to expect that none of them will get taken.

Jose Azocar

Azocar was left unprotected after last season, and was not selected. While he had a better season in 2018, he still has not shown enough power (two home runs) or plate discipline to be anything more than a speedy fourth outfielder. With no experience above High-A, Detroit can feel fairly confident that Azocar won’t be selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

Tyler Alexander

Alexander is the one I would worry about the most. Teams love to claim pitchers they can shove in the bullpen, and left-handers are a very popular target (a la Daniel Stumpf). Alexander was a second round pick back in 2015. He went 6-8 with a 4.44 ERA between Erie and Toledo this season. His command is excellent but his limited strikeout numbers will likely scare teams off. I don’t think he’ll get selected, but he would be my top choice to protect if Detroit clears a spot. They have a lot of pitching prospects, but very few left-handers.

Derek Hill

Hill can already be chalked up as a bust after being selected in the first round back in 2015. He finally played in over 100 games last season, but his just .239 with only 16 extra base hits and 109 strikeouts. He has blazing speed, but at this point doesn’t look like more than a speedy fourth outfielder. He’s not ready for the big leagues, and likely wouldn’t be selected despite his pedigree as a first rounder.

The Others

Cam Gibson had a decent season last year, with eight home runs, 22 stolen bases and excellent plate discipline. However, he’s 24 and has only played 48 games above High-A. I doubt he gets claimed.

Paul Voelker had a nice 3.18 ERA at Double-A last year, making him a potential target for Rule 5 teams. He is 26 and unlikely to be more than a middle reliever, but a team could certainly take a chance on him after a strong 2018 season.

Grayson Long is a longshot after missing all of 2018 with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, but he is one of Detroit’s more appealing pitching prospects as well.

The Detroit Tigers have a lot of options to consider before tonight’s 40-man roster deadline. Alexander and Voelker seem like possible draftees, so finding a spot for them could be a priority for this team, at the expense of some of their current players.