Detroit Tigers: Five Spencer Turnbull Trades

Let’s throw some Spencer Turnbull trades at the wall.

Yesterday we took a long look at Spencer Turnbull’s trade value and determined he carries about $40 million in surplus value right now. That sounds great. Why, with that amount of money we could buy a ridiculous house, or 1,650 sets of guinea pig armor, or 500,000 beef jerky bouquets. But $40 million is still a bit abstract in baseball terms, so let’s go shopping and see what kind of trades we can make.

At the bottom of this page you’ll find a slideshow with five hypothetical Spencer Turnbull trades, but before we get to those we thought it might be helpful to look back at other trades involving pitchers like Spencer Turnbull.

The first thing we noticed is players like Turnbull — mid-rotation pitchers with fewer than 200 MLB innings and more than 4 years of team control — almost never get traded for prospects. Typically they are on the other side of the deal, heading to a rebuilding club as part of a package to land proven veterans.

Should that make the Tigers think twice about dealing Turnbull? Probably. It’s hard to find cheap, league-average starting pitchers, so Detroit shouldn’t make a move unless they get a strong return. On the other hand, the organization lacks impact bats, and they’ve recently watched three young starters hemorrhage trade value because of injuries and ineffectiveness.

Below you’ll see a reminder of Spencer Turnbull’s production and remaining team control, and then five instances when similar players were traded.

Spencer Turnbull

Similar Trades Part One

Doug Fister, July 30, 2011: Traded by the Seattle Mariners with David Pauley to the Detroit Tigers for Charlie Furbush, Francisco Martinez, Chance Ruffin, and Casper Wells.

Analysis – Tigers fans certainly remember this classic Dave Dombrowski heist, and a quantity-over-quality return like this for Turnbull would be disappointing. The players Seattle acquired provided about 2.5 WAR for the Mariners, while Fister gave Detroit close to 10. Fister and Turnbull share a lot of similarities — both were right-handed sinkerballers who never made a top-100 list, didn’t reach the majors until they were 25, and got very little run support. Turnbull throws significantly harder, but Fister had twice as many MLB innings and much better command.

Similar Trades Part Two

Mat Latos, December 17, 2011: Traded by the San Diego Padres to the Cincinnati Reds for Yonder Alonso, Brad Boxberger, Yasmani Grandal, and Edinson Volquez.

Analysis – This feels very much like a trade from a bygone era. Alonso (2007), Boxberger (2009), and Grandal (2010) were all former first-rounders, and Alonso and Grandal were both top-100 prospects at the time. Volquez was a bit of an enigma, but he had two years of team control remaining. Latos was a big, hard thrower like Turnbull, and while he was never a top-100 prospect, he was coming off two excellent seasons and had just turned 24 at the time of this trade.

Similar Trades Part Three

Andrew Cashner, January 6, 2012: Traded by the Chicago Cubs to the San Diego Padres for Anthony Rizzo.

Analysis – This looks bad in retrospect, but it was a pretty reasonable deal at the time. Cashner threw a bit harder than Turnbull does, but they were both big righties with power sinkers who could occasionally dominate a lineup. Cashner had a bit more pedigree as a first-round pick who made the back-end of Baseball America’s top-100 list once, but he had a very limited track record at the time of this trade. He broke into pro ball as a reliever, but was going to join the Cubs’ rotation until a strained rotator cuff caused him to miss most of 2011. Rizzo was a top-100 prospect for the Red Sox and the Padres, but San Diego shipped him away after a tough 49-game stretch in 2011.

Similar Trades Part Four

Chase Anderson, January 30, 2016: Traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks with Isan Diaz and Aaron Hill to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jean Segura and Tyler Wagner.

Analysis – This deal is a bit more complicated, but Chase Anderson was another unheralded pitcher who nevertheless found some MLB success in his mid-20s thanks to a five-pitch mix, though he didn’t throw quite as hard as Turnbull. The Diamondbacks included one of their top-ten prospects in Isan Diaz, and they also threw in veteran infielder Aaron Hill and ate $6.5 million of his salary. The key return was former all-star Jean Segura, who was still just 25 and had three years of team control remaining.

Similar Trades Part Five

Marco Gonzales, July 21, 2017: Traded by the St. Louis Cardinals to the Seattle Mariners for Tyler O’Neill.

Analysis – This is stretching it a bit, but we told you these trades don’t happen very often. Gonzales was a former first-round pick and top-100 prospect who also happens to be left-handed and rarely scrapes 90 mph. About the only things he and Turnbull have in common is they throw sinkers, they had four more years of team control left, and they both missed most of the 2016 season. In Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis received a top-100 prospect with tremendous raw power, good athleticism, and hit-tool questions.

On With the Show

That’s enough examples from the past. Let’s make with the fake Turnbull trades!

Spencer Turnbull and Jonathan Schoop to the Chicago Cubs for IF Nico Hoerner

These clubs have made deadline deals twice in the last three seasons, and they seem poised to do it again. Hoerner was a first-round pick in 2018 and vaulted to the majors last year because the Cubs were desperate for infield help. He hasn’t had much MLB success yet, and he looks more like a solid regular than a future star, but then so does Spencer Turnbull.

The Cubs have a decent rotation this year, but they don’t have much help on the way, and they’re set to lose Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood, and probably Jon Lester after the season. Schoop is merely a rental, but he fills the hole vacated by Hoerner, and he should be an offensive upgrade for 2020.

Spencer Turnbull and Buck Farmer to the Los Angeles Angels for OF Jordyn Adams and 2B/OF Jahmai Jones

General managers Al Avila and Billy Eppler both took over their respective clubs in the middle of 2015, and they’ve completed five deals since. While Avila has been overseeing a protracted rebuild, Eppler has been repeatedly failing to put a contender around Mike Trout. Starting pitching has been a consistent problem in L.A. — they rank 30th in starting pitching fWAR since 2016 — and Turnbull would represent a cheap and immediate upgrade. Farmer adds a solid piece to their bullpen for the next two seasons.

Tigers fans hoping for Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh may be disappointed, but Eppler might be limited in what he can do, and in Adams they’d be getting one of the most dynamic athletes in baseball. He’s risky, but carries superstar upside. Jones has less upside, but he’s a good athlete with plus makeup who could be a solid regular.

Spencer Turnbull and Austin Romine to the Tampa Bay Rays for OF Josh Lowe, SS Taylor Walls, and LHP Anthony Banda

The Rays aren’t typically in the business of trading for players who are about to get more expensive, but they’re legitimate contenders now, they can always move Turnbull again in a few years, and few teams are better at maximizing the effectiveness and value of their pitchers. Tampa’s catchers have been pretty poor so far this season, and Romine would give them a solid temporary upgrade.

Josh Lowe was a first-round pick in 2016, and his plus power, speed, and arm strength remind us of a more developed version of Detroit’s 2018 2nd-rounder Parker Meadows. Walls is a bit of an under-the-radar prospect as a switch-hitter with average tools and a chance to stick at shortstop, and Banda is a former top-100 prospect coming off elbow surgery who could be a solid reliever.

Spencer Turnbull and Jose Cisnero to the Philadelphia Phillies for UTIL Scott Kingery, SS Luis Garcia, and RHP Francisco Morales

This one adds a bit of a twist, because Detroit would actually be taking on some salary. The Phillies gave Kingery a six-year, $24 million deal before he ever played an MLB game, and though he was primarily a second baseman in the minors, he has played mostly shortstop and center field in the bigs. He was an above-average player in 2019, though he struggled mightily in the second half, and his 2020 has been a disaster. A change of scenery may help, and in Detroit he could return to his natural position. Garcia is a promising young switch-hitter who struggled in low-A but should be able to stick at shortstop, and Morales is a probable future reliever, but one with the raw stuff of a future closer.

Cisnero would help Philly’s woeful bullpen, and Turnbull would allow them to push Vince Velasquez and possibly Spencer Howard to the pen for now, and give them a solid rotation replacement for Jake Arrieta next year.